Cambridge Cognition Share Discussion Threads

[mm84] 11/11/2020 22:26

Hey guys, what if Cogstate buys COG?

[stevee1234] 08/11/2020 18:20

40F, I have to admit that the FDA briefing note taxed my endurance (121 pages plus figures) but as you say the FDA are extremely positive and clearly from cog's reported view from October 2019 they see it as a massive opportunity. Thanks for posting all this on the board.
It really does appear from this and other opportunities that cog are in a very good place for future significant growth over the short to medium term.
S

[40 fathoms] 07/11/2020 04:40

This outcome is broadly as expected from the Adcom, the surprise this week is how positive the FDA position was in its briefing paper. The position is the FDA seem to love it and the Adcom panel are saying the case for Aducanumab has not been proven. My take is the FDA will approve regardless, and will likely put on some label limits or phase IV requirements, however for COG this would still see very significant demand for triage testing.

[40 fathoms] 07/11/2020 04:32

Today, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Peripheral and Central Nervous System Drugs Advisory Committee voted 1 yes, 8 no and 2 uncertain on the question, “Does Study 302 (EMERGE), viewed independently and without regard for Study 301 (ENGAGE), provide strong evidence that supports the effectiveness of aducanumab for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease?”. The Advisory Committee also voted 0 yes, 7 no and 4 uncertain on the question, “Does Study 103 (PRIME) provide supportive evidence of the effectiveness of aducanumab for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease?”, and 5 yes, 0 no and 6 uncertain on the question, “Has the Applicant presented strong evidence of a pharmacodynamic effect of aducanumab on Alzheimer’s disease pathophysiology?R21;. Finally, the Advisory Committee voted 0 yes, 10 no and 1 uncertain on the question, “In light of the understanding provided by the exploratory analyses of Study 301 and Study 302, along with the results of Study 103 and evidence of a pharmacodynamic effect on Alzheimer’s disease pathophysiology, it is reasonable to consider Study 302 as primary evidence of effectiveness of aducanumab for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease?”

[40 fathoms] 06/11/2020 13:39

hxxps://www.sharecast.com/news/aim-bulletin/cambridge-cognition-hoping-to-ride-coat-tails-of-biogen-alzheimers-programme--7093535.html This was from COG last year on the issue.

[stevee1234] 06/11/2020 13:14

40F, thank you very much for all the information, I will read up on this in more detail this evening.
Cheers
Steve

[40 fathoms] 06/11/2020 12:43

So next steps is today's Advisory Committee meeting, then depending on their recommendations (and the FDA can ignore the Adcom recommendations) then a final decision must be given by the PUDFA date in March 2021. However it could come at anytime prior to that.

[40 fathoms] 06/11/2020 12:40

Stevee, just as a reminder the approval of Aducanumab would not in itself be a direct benefit to COG. They were not involved in the trial and have no link to Biogen or Eisai. However, what it does mean is that with a disease modifying drug on the market, GPs need a quick and cheap way to work out if a persons memory is normal and if they should be passed on to a specialist. GPs have neither the time, training nor resources to do this via old fashioned pencil and paper methods. There are only 3, possibly 4, companies globally that offer a regulatory approved, validated, cloud-based test that you can conduct (without supervision) on a tablet or a PC. COG is one of those 3. I have no doubt as we speak management is discussions with all sorts of parties about offering this test if Aducanumab is approved. So the FDA must give a decision by March, if approved the drug will be available from next summer. It seems highly likely to me that if it looks like it will get approved you will see COG starting to sign deals end of this year early next.

[stevee1234] 05/11/2020 23:51

Hi 40F, that sounds interesting news re. The FDA. Could you please post a link or advice where I can read these briefing papers. Also based on what you know what are the next steps in FDA approval, are they waiting for data/information from cog, is there any follow up session where they could announce approval.
Cheers S

[40 fathoms] 04/11/2020 15:38

Huge news for COG ... the FDA just released its briefing papers for the Friday Adcom meeting on Aducanumab. "Based on the considerations above, the applicant has provided substantial evidence of effectiveness to support approval" Seems pretty clear that the FDA want to approve it.

[oliversanvil] 27/10/2020 13:13

SP creeping back up!

[40 fathoms] 27/10/2020 09:29

EISAI AND JD HEALTH ESTABLISH A JOINT VENTURE COMPANY IN CHINA TO
IMPLEMENT HEALTH SERVICE PLATFORM
Aiming to make a new contribution through a One-Stop Online Service for people living with Dementia. SO no doubt this will tie up the Cognigram product Eisai licensed yesterday. If they are not already COG management should get on the phone to one of the other Chinese digital health platforms, who will be forced to offer a competing product. Ping An Healthcare would be good !

[stevee1234] 26/10/2020 08:04

40F something similar for cog would indeed be transformational for the share price. My fingers and toes are crossed in hope, also a fair degree of confidence significant deals will be announced over time.

[40 fathoms] 26/10/2020 06:15

Today Eisai just paid a minimum of US$ 45 million (US$ 15 million upfront) for a 10 year licence with royalties to use Cogstate’s Cognigram product in healthcare. Given our significant advantages over Cognigram and the distinct lack of validated competition in this space, there is no reason why there is not a similar sort of deal somewhere out there for us. Imagine what our share price would do if we had announced a similar deal today. On a slightly different note I think it is interesting that Eisai did this deal prior to the November 6th FDA advisory committee steer on Aducanumab, given they are the junior partner to Biogen for this drug.

[oliversanvil] 22/10/2020 18:25

Nibbles today!

[w t tutte] 15/10/2020 12:38

S1234, Thank you very much, very helpful indeed.

[stevee1234] 15/10/2020 11:10

Hi WTT, yes I attended the event (albeit online). I felt it was slightly odd in as much as the company presented excellent results in a fairly flat monotone. I guess the CEO was all alone in a room sitting at a desk with a lap top in front of him basically reading the slides. He did elaborate a little on the text but the slides were fairly self explanatory. I have looked this morning and they are not available on their web site, but if they do make them available I will provide a link.
That all said the data in the slides clearly showed that the company has turned the corner and produced a stunning performance in 2020. I'm sorry I don't have the exact figures they presented but they have drastically increased sales revenue this year to 9m already and expect to be in excess of 10m by year end, which I believe is more than double last year's sales. They have cut costs by about 15 percent both in terms of administration and R and D. They said again they expect to be in profit this year and significantly cash positive. Some interesting comments they made were that they have a new Chief Operating Officer who is proving very successful at winning new business and they now are winning over 35 percent of contracts they bid for. They said the potential market is substantial and that they are in discussions for lots of new business and expect to win a significant proportion of it. One other interesting comment in response to a question was that although they are pleased with their organic growth they are always considering opportunities for acquisitions and although non have been a good fit yet they would pursue them if they were good enough.
My overall conclusion was that the firm have delivered excellent performance in 2020 and are well placed to grow next year and beyond. I hope this helps.
As always only my own opinion etc. etc.

[w t tutte] 15/10/2020 06:47

Did anyone attend the investor presentation last night ? Any views or reports would be welcome.

[oliversanvil] 10/10/2020 10:00

Are COG in any way cahooting with TERN/WYLD also in Cambridge?

[stevee1234] 08/10/2020 11:48

I guess that FinnCap valuation is for the company as it stands today but can't associate much value to future potential FDA approvals or major potential new business until it does or doesn't materialise.

[fillipe] 08/10/2020 11:25

Yesterday, finnCap reiterated their 80p tp for COG.

f

[stevee1234] 08/10/2020 10:25

You make a compelling argument 40 Fathoms and some buyers appear to be agreeing this morning, I think this has some way to go.

[40 fathoms] 07/10/2020 13:22

What is interesting is they get to keep their IP for much of the bespoke and market leading work that they do on behalf of Pharma. This can then be offered to other clients. Nice work if you can get it. This business is grossly undervalued. That is before you even consider a possible positive FDA decision on Aducanumab (pdufa date 7 March 2021), if we get a positive outcome you will see a truly huge step change in the commercial potential for the business. There are only 3 or 4 companies that can offer regulatory approved, highly sensitive, digital administered cognitive test capable of triaging potential Alzheimers patients. Pick your price per test multiply by the tens of millions of tests that will be administered every year, assign COG with a share of those tests. In the context of an already profitable business with a 15 million market cap even crumbs from this will be business changing.

[stevee1234] 07/10/2020 07:48

RNS out announcing new contract, I think I judged that one right, looking forward to the 14th.