Cambridge Cognition Share Discussion Threads

[40 fathoms] 30/1/2023 23:33

As far as the share price is concerned I think it will be a pretty important update. Operationally, we know it will be in line and we can expect the overall outlook for the business to remain strong, however I feel some shareholders will be disappointed if management do not provide a clear roadmap for the next 2 or 3 years that demonstrates good levels of sustained and growing profitability.

[cerrito] 30/1/2023 18:27

Remember that the company anticipates issuing a TS this week

[greyingsurfer] 18/1/2023 08:00

The RNS in fact states :"An event changing the breakdown of voting rights",I.e related to the change in total share count, from the Winterlight acquisition.

[40 fathoms] 17/1/2023 23:08

I don't think you can concluded from the TR1 that he has sold stock. To pay for the Winterlight acquisition new shares were issued on Monday. This has increased the number of shares in issue which has had the effect of diluting existing holders. Even if he had not sold any shares, he would have still slipped below the 3% threshold and would have needed to report a change. You will note that Pendall also made a similar declaration today.

[earwacks] 17/1/2023 18:36

Looks like Stephen Perring has been selling the stock down. Hope this RNS means he is now out.

[40 fathoms] 14/1/2023 01:33

More success from Monument Therapeutics. A little bit surprised that this did not warrant an RNS.



It looks like they have been able to get their generic API across the blood-brain barrier in humans. This is a huge step. As a reminder this is a reformulated generic drug so the safety profile is well understood.

There is no currently no approved neuro anti-inflammatory and one would have many, many applications from TBI to stroke through to dementia and beyond. You will recall that we have a double digit topline royalty over Monument's pipeline as well as an equity position. This is worth keeping an eye on, as for less than GBP65k of book value Cambridge Cognition has 2 programs that (given the generic nature of the reformulated drugs) are highly likely to enter phase II. The commercial revenue potential of both programs individually would be in excess of US$ 1 billion of annual sales. Success in either of the programs would be worth 100's of millions to us. At the current market cap this is a free carry to Cambridge shareholders.

[cerrito] 13/1/2023 18:00

A propos today's change of holdings RNS, I see there were only 2 during 2022-both in relation to the reduction by Michael Buxton. A remarkably stable shareholder bass for a company in COG's stage of corporate development.

[40 fathoms] 12/1/2023 05:53

A little bit more detail on Winterlight Labs.

This link is to a YouTube video that provides a demonstration of their software.


Here is a link to their Crunchbase page. I am assuming the numbers are Canadian Dollars.


I have seen a different number of $5.6 million of cash raised but it is still in the same ballpark.


Here is a recent summary of the work they have done with Genentech.


They also have a deal with Pear Therapeutics, they are the market leaders in digital therapeutics. Pear licensed the technology to develop and clinically validate digital biomarkers for a variety of diseases, including Alzheimer's disease, depression, insomnia, schizophrenia, opioid use disorder, and substance use disorder.

[earwacks] 11/1/2023 09:35

Take your points about loss making. StockyScotty owns some and was unsure about this unless the market is turning bullish. I think there is still room for stocks with realistic ambition. The accelerated growth potential is very possible with the foothold in China and cross selling potential. This acquisition looks a perfect fit.

[earwacks] 11/1/2023 09:17

3 million cash and and the balance in shares. The market seems positive for now. Presumably prior knowledge spooked the market or some one knew how to get the share price down to their advantage. Which was quite an achievement after positive news flow. Wasn’t me :) but thanks

[40 fathoms] 11/1/2023 08:22

Here is a link to the FDA trial work Winterlight is or has been involved with.



Worth noting are the Phase 2 Study to evaluate efficacy and safety of AL002 in Participants With early Alzheimer's Disease (INVOKE-2) for AbbVie (this is targeting Tau tangles and not beta amyloid) and the observational study for a Speech-based Digital Biomarker for Psychiatric Disease that they are sponsoring.

[40 fathoms] 11/1/2023 08:14

Winterlight labs is an excellent business and has been used on a number of trials. Most notably, to date, the Phase 2/3 GAIN trial for Cortexyme which was focused on an Anti-P. gingivalis approach in AD.

On the negative side this means that 2023 will likely be a loss making year with negative cashflow. I hope management, when they update the market at the end of the month, can demonstrate that they are laser focused on delivering meaningful profitable and positive cashflow in FY2024. This is now an imperative for this company as from 2020 through 2024 they will have grown revenue by 10 million but the expense line by more. It is time to demonstrate that they can transition to substantial and sustainable profitability.

[janeann] 11/1/2023 08:12

had assumed that was perhaps the possible implications of the Lecanemab authorisation as a possible Alzheimer’s treatment finally sinking in? Who knows now

[purplepelmets] 11/1/2023 08:05

And why a significant jump in the share price the day before a big RNS? Hmm

[janeann] 11/1/2023 08:03

Looks at bit pricey to me for a loss making business... but how do they value the technology

[purplepelmets] 11/1/2023 07:59

Not overly chuffed with this. Debt is to be avoided in this climate. What sayeth the market?

[40 fathoms] 11/1/2023 07:54

RNS Number : 3110M
Cambridge Cognition Holdings PLC
11 January 2023



Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc

("Cambridge Cognition" or the "Company")



Acquisition of Winterlight Labs Inc



Cambridge Cognition builds a leading position in vocal biomarker technology

for clinical trials with the acquisition of Winterlight



Highlights

· Acquisition of Winterlight, a leader in monitoring cognitive impairment through free-speech analysis

· Significantly enhances Cambridge Cognition's expertise and position in voice-based assessments

· The market for speech-based biomarkers for all conditions is reported to be growing at 66% per annum and, is predicted to be around US$220 million by 20261

· Total consideration for the Acquisition is £7.0 million, comprising a cash payment of £3.0 million and £4.0 million in Cambridge Cognition shares

· Limited overlap with Cambridge Cognition's existing customer base, potential to cross-sell and generate further revenue growth

· Potential to add more than £2.0 million to Cambridge Cognition's revenue in 2023 with considerable further growth in 2024

[earwacks] 09/1/2023 17:53

Many thanks for that 40 fathoms. I was just too late to buy on Friday and struggled to pick up a meaningful amount of stock this morning but eventually succeeded before they really jumped this afternoon. A stock I have been after for a while. Hope the seller is now gone! Don’t know what knocked it back. China crisis? Any way gave me the opportunity I was looking for. Should be good Gl all

[40 fathoms] 07/1/2023 09:32

Yesterday evening Eisai/Biogen recived accelerated FDA approval for Lecenamab, which will now be renamed as Leqembi. This is a drug that will be used to treat early stage Alzheimers and although it is far from perfect this is a pivotal moment along the path to changing the treatment paradigm in AD.

The follow on effects for Cambridge Cognition over the next decade will be significant and twofold. Firstly, you will see a significant number of new AD clinical trials initiated, both for new APIs targeting beta amyloid and also targeting new mechanisms of action. In addition you will start to see trials of drug combinations. Leqembi and Donepezil would be an obvious one, given that Aricept is also an Eisai drug. A share of all this additional work will come to Cambridge Cognition.

Secondly, now that we have the ability to modify the disease, faster and earlier diagnosis of AD is going to be crucial. It will not be affordable, nor practicable to definitively test everyone (PET scan or lumbar puncture) who turns up in the GP clinic saying they forgot where they left the car in the carpark last week or they could not remember the name of their postman. The answer is a quick, cheap and accurate digital test that will determine if your cognition is normal, both against your peer group but also against yourself when tested longitudinally. There are only two companies that are in a position to provide widely validated, highly sensitive, digital administered tests and Cambridge Cognition is one of these companies.

Over the next decade, globally. Tests in this health screening market should be somewhere between 5 million & 50 million annually, multiply this number by @ $10-$12 per test (this is an estimate of what Cogstate will receive via its licensing agreement with Eisai) and then assign a percentage of the resultant figure to Cambridge Cognition. If we take 5 million tests per year and US$ 10 dollars per test and assign a 10% market share to Cambridge Cognition that would be US$ 5 million dollars in annual revenue and note that revenue has 95%+ gross margin. If we keep Cambridge's share of the market at 10% but increase the $ per test to $12 and estimating a market of 30 million tests per year. We would see a COG revenue of $36 million per year.

Just for a little bit more context as to how this market might evolve you might look at what Eisai and Cogstate are starting to do in Japan. In Japan it is mandatory for an employer to offer an annual health check, known as kenko shindan. Eisai is working on having their Cognigram tests included for all over 50s. They are starting to also have them embedded in private health insurance physicals and they are also exploring with the government making them a part of the driving licence renewal process, after a certain age. The other factor to consider is that once you are on some form of treatment you will be tested regularly to make sure the drug is having a positive effect.

Last but not least Eli Lilly will be filling with the FDA before the end of 2023 for approval of their beta amyloid clearing therapy known as daonanemab. Should this be approved this will reinforce all of the factors highlighted above..

[40 fathoms] 29/11/2022 03:46

Below is the link to the press release put out by Luca Healthcare today, it provides a bit more detail about the partnership than was provided in last weeks RNS.

[40 fathoms] 24/11/2022 07:25

Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc (AIM: COG), which develops and markets digital solutions to assess brain health, is pleased to announce an expansion in the Chinese market through a strategic partnership with Luca Healthcare Limited ("Luca Healthcare"), a category leader in digital screening, treatment and management tools in China. Cambridge Cognition has signed an exclusive licencing agreement with Luca Healthcare to commercialise the Company's suite of leading cognitive assessment tools in China for both the pharmaceutical and healthcare markets.

Luca Healthcare looks like a quality outfit at first glance, although only a few years old, they look well-funded (completed a funding round a few months ago) and in a short period have also entered into strategic partnerships with Astrazeneca and Thermo Fisher, among others.

[40 fathoms] 24/11/2022 00:15

A recent Series A pitch from Monument Therapeutics, you may recall this was spun out from Cambridge Cognition last year. So over the next 24 months they will have two programs enter proof of mechinism studies and add two new pipeline programs.

As a reminder Cambridge Cognition has a low, double digit top line royalty and currently (subject to Series A dillution) a @30% equity position. This combination currently sits in the Cambridge Cognition books for @£50k.