Cambridge Cognition Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 15/6/2021 21:48

40fathoms

thanks for all that info

I liked this part of your post
"Longer term I would expect that a cognitive test will be required as part of the annual renewal and premium setting process. Clearly you will have some ethical issues to cross but tests coupled with family history and other information can give pretty decent predictions of your probability of developing AD at least a decade before you show symptoms. I don't think the insurance companies and actuaries will be able to resist going down this route."

[mm84] 15/6/2021 15:43

Ok, I've read all the Annual Reports going back to 2015, I've listened to a bunch of interviews with the current and former CEO's and I'm now randomly googling stuff like neurovocalix, wearable technology, etc.

I was wondering if someone could help me with a few doubts:

One thing - among many - that I still don't understand is how the company was able to set its focus on commercialization back in 2015/16/17 with a dedicated team, an office in the US, etc, and still manage to do so poorly over the years. How come these guys haven't landed big contracts if their tech is so good? Note that I'm not being sarcastic here. I've been gathering the pieces and I - sort of - understand that COG is the absolute leader in voice and wearables. But the information is so scarce that I don't get it. Is this a culture thing that will be hard to change?

Other questions:
eCOA seems like a very easy product to develop with very low barriers to entry, but necessary to please the customers. Is this correct or am I missing something?

How important is Monument Therapeutics? In fact, what exactly is Monument Therapeutics?


Thank you in advance to those who can help me.

[40 fathoms] 15/6/2021 10:17

Yes. Health insurance companies Cigna and the like. Given the huge cost of this treatment, I would initially expect them to require an "insurer approved" cognitive test before allowing patients to start along the treatment pathway. This would be in addition to an initial test administered by a general care practitioner which is where most of the treatment referrals are likely to come from. Given that in the US the general care practitioner will receive a share (up to 6%) of the treatment cost they will have an incentive to push treatment. Given that the no label restrictions were placed on Aducanumab I would expect the insurance companies to place their own. Given that this check can be done by a cheap at home test it would seem like a sensible approach. The cost benefit to them is huge. Let say its $5 per test and the cost of treatment is going to be (all in) @US$75k per year. If they can knock back 1:15,000 claims or even defer that claim for a year they have paid for the testing.

I also think you might find that while on the treatment they will require regular cognitive testing to determine if the therapy is having an effect and should be continued.

Longer term I would expect that a cognitive test will be required as part of the annual renewal and premium setting process. Clearly you will have some ethical issues to cross but tests coupled with family history and other information can give pretty decent predictions of your probability of developing AD at least a decade before you show symptoms. I don't think the insurance companies and actuaries will be able to resist going down this route.

[smithie6] 15/6/2021 07:24

insurance companies ??

[40 fathoms] 15/6/2021 00:06

In response to the question on the LSE board about expected revenue for this year. Current consensus/guidance is for @8 million. I think these contracts would be in addition to the guidance numbers and will add @ 500k to this years revenue and the balance will to next 22/23. My guess is for this year we do @ 9 to 9.5 million revenue and a PBT of @ 750k and that will double to @ 1.5 million in FY22.

Those numbers exclude any additional large contracts that are signed or any licensing deals done in the healthcare space. I would not be surprised to see them sign up with and a number of HMOs or insurance companies prior to the end of the year. A few deals like that could add meaningfully to annual recurring revenue.

[40 fathoms] 14/6/2021 23:59

Todays new contracts signed are going to be the first in a deluge in my view. We can expect to see a lot of good news between now and the end of the year. I would also expect to see the company up its guidance when it provides a mid year market update.

[40 fathoms] 11/6/2021 06:19

Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc (AIM: COG), which develops and markets digital solutions to assess brain health, is pleased to announce that it will be joining the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) Brain Health Registry as a cognitive assessment partner. The Brain Health Registry is an online platform designed to speed up the discovery of treatments for Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder, and other brain disorders.

This is going to be the first in a stream of announcements, the approval of Aducanumab will set the whole sector alight not just AD, money is going to pour in for all CNS conditions, this really is the final frontier in medicine and we are still working out not only how to measure but even what to measure we have not even started to scratch the surface of what is possible.

[40 fathoms] 07/6/2021 21:55

BINGO - Aducanumab approved

[hatfullofsky] 07/6/2021 21:51

Times article

Alzheimer’s drug, aducanumab, gives first new hope in 20 years

The first new drug for Alzheimer’s disease in nearly 20 years won conditional approval today, offering fresh hope for British patients and millions of others worldwide.
The US Food and Drugs Administration (FDA) said the company Biogen could market the drug, called aducanumab, in the United States, but that it would need to complete a further large clinical trial to confirm its benefit to patients.
Regulators in Europe and the UK are not expected to make any ruling until the autumn but the US decision was hailed as promising by British campaigners.
Professor Bart De Strooper, the director of the UK Dementia Research Institute, said: “With no effective therapies currently available to modify the progression of this devastating condition, this is a major milestone for the millions of people living with Alzheimer’s.” He warned however that “controversy and uncertainty” surrounding trials of the drug might limit the impact of the new treatment.
Biogen’s decision to file for approval was a surprise after clinical trials involving over 3,000 people were stopped early in March 2019. An initial analysis showed the drugs were unlikely to make sufficient improvements to people’s memory and thinking.
However, later that year the company said it had undertaken a new analysis with more data that became available after the trials stopped, focusing on people who had taken the drugs for longer. It said that analysis showed a high dose could slow the decline of cognitive skills and keep people able to carry out daily activities for longer, and requested approval on that basis.
The drug is an antibody designed to target amyloid, a protein that builds up in the brain at an early stage of Alzheimer’s disease.
While treatments work to reduce symptoms for a time, aducanumab aims to slow the underlying disease itself.
The FDA said it was basing its unusual conditional approval on the ability of the drug, also known as Aduhelm, to clear the toxic proteins from the brain. For Biogen to continue marketing the drug, it will need to complete a trial to confirm removing the plaque offers cognitive benefits.
Professor John Gallacher, director of Dementias Platform UK, said: “Although I suspect this was a close decision, the FDA obviously gave aducanumab the benefit of the doubt.
“Apart from the chance for patient benefit, the scientific impact of this decision will be the real-world evidence it creates as the progress of people taking the drug is monitored.” He said it could also act as a catalyst for further drug development, suggesting other companies might “dust down” their own similar drugs for further work.
Many experts are uneasy with the ruling. Dr Caleb Alexander, a drug safety and effectiveness expert at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg school of public health, who was involved with an initial FDA decision to reject the application in November, told The New York Times that relying on a re-analysis of a trial was “like the Texas sharpshooter fallacy – the idea that the sharpshooter shoots up a barn and then goes and draws a bullseye around the cluster of holes that he likes”.
Speaking before the decision, he warned approval would set a “remarkably dangerous precedent” for not only Alzheimer’s research but also broader regulation of prescription drugs.
The American Geriatrics Society had urged the FDA not to approve the drug, citing concerns including “reliance on a single, incomplete trial as the basis for approval” and the fact that it was not free of side effects.
There are about 850,000 people living with dementia in the UK.
Dr Richard Oakley, head of research at Alzheimer’s Society, said: “It’s promising to see that aducanumab has been approved for use in people with early stage Alzheimer’s disease — the first drug to be approved in nearly 20 years by the US regulatory authorities.
“We await the opinion of the European Medicines Agency and the outcome of any application made to the UK regulatory authorities, to give clarity to people with early Alzheimer’s disease in the UK.” He said that with the drug only likely to benefit a proportion of people in the early stages of the disease, “we must keep searching for drugs for all stages of Alzheimer’s disease and for other types of dementia”, calling on the government to honour a commitment to double dementia research funding.

[minsky] 04/6/2021 07:40

WT you're right the capital markets day has been an annual event at least since 2019 so Paul Scott's off-the-cuff remark isn't necessarily right.

[smithie6] 03/6/2021 22:26

"At 31 December 2020 the Company had over GBP3m of cash, resulting from the increased order flow, reduced spending, and the successful equity placing of GBP1.4m, before costs, in March 2020."

"Loss for the year GBP0.4m,"

& turnover is increasing a lot

so, at first sight it doesn't look like the co. needs to raise money

but depends I guess how slow clients are in paying for these contracts & if they pay anything up front, or just after completing each stage of a project
(the COG workers on new projects have to get paid each month, by someone !, cant give 'em an IOU !)

[w t tutte] 03/6/2021 22:14

Minsky, They do have these investor days every year, so I am not sure it necessarily signals anything. Also, it dose not seem like they need a CR operationally, as they are now cashflow positive. So if they were to come to market, one would suspect it would be to fund some M&A. The CEO seems very commercially focused and does not seem like the type who would pursue anything frivolous.

[minsky] 03/6/2021 11:36

Interesting Paul Scott makes an inference based on W T Tutte's previous post:
Upcoming capital market day implies upcoming fundraise.
Who knows...

[tomps2] 03/6/2021 08:24

Paul Scott mentions Cambridge Cognition (COG) at 16m50s in the latest piworld Interview.

Watch the video here:

Or listen to the podcast Here: hxxps://piworld.podbean.com/e/piworld-interview-paul-scott-june-2021-update/

[w t tutte] 31/5/2021 12:08

They have an investor day coming up on 16th June where they will highlight new technologies. Can use the link below to sign up.

[40 fathoms] 16/5/2021 08:29

Only 3 weeks now till we get the FDAs final view on Aducanumab. Any form of approval, limited or otherwise and I think you will see a flurry of contracts for us from the healthcare space.

[40 fathoms] 04/5/2021 14:08

Thank you. That is a lot more straightforward !

[igbertsponk] 04/5/2021 08:08

Clickable (no need to complicate matters with adding spaces. Just change one of the https or www to a capital and links work).

[40 fathoms] 03/5/2021 13:37

Found it again .... worth a read for positioning of COG

https: //advisor.echelonpartners.com/research/content/CGN%20041621%20submit.pdf

If you copy the above link in to the search bar and then remove the space between "https:" and "//" it will work.

[40 fathoms] 24/4/2021 14:46

Here is a very interesting research report for Cognetivity Neuroscience a UK company that is listed in Canada. It does a very good job of setting out the market potential and the various competitive position of the various players. My take away from the report is that it is very clear that COG and Cogstate in Australia have this market pretty much to themselves.

The gap will grow, as we move in to and validate our position in both voice and wearables, many of our competitors are not yet even clinically validated on PC or tablets. Still it is a very interesting read.

www.advisor.echelonpartners.com/research/content/CGN%20041621%20submit.pdf

Sorry looks like they have moved the report from the link.

[40 fathoms] 24/4/2021 01:10

I have just come across this article from last year, starts on page 18, it sets out very nicely where COG sits in the nexus between CNS measurement and digital trials.

www.issuu.com/informapharmaintelligence/docs/rise_of_digital_tools_ebook

[oliversanvil] 21/4/2021 16:25

MM's Taking the micheal!

[davidosh] 15/4/2021 12:40

An investor in COG has dedicated a pledge to charity if the share price reaches £1.45 this year for a £200 donation to be made to a small deserving charity. I was only dedicated this week and looks like it will be hit this week at the current rate of growth in share price.

Hundreds of investors are doing the same



You can choose any company and any charity or simply match another investor and their pledge. I am hoping to get to £100k for lots of smaller deserving charities mainly but all donations much appreciated.

Lets hope the markets stay positive and investors are generous.

[igbertsponk] 15/4/2021 11:00

I added earlier. Was hard to get any, but already in profit on them which is nice....

[tratante] 13/4/2021 22:00

Indeed, thanks for that perceptive analysis 40 Fathoms