Cambridge Cognition Share Discussion Threads

[40 fathoms] 02/2/2022 07:50

Outstanding, another GBP 2.1 million contract. They keep kicking conversion after conversion.

It is absolutely clear that the market does not understand how large nor deep is the structural tailwind that they now have at their back. This will last for a decade at least and will result in them having annual revenue that is many, many multiples of what they enjoy today. In many market segments they effectively have no competition and in areas where they do it is limited to only one or two players.

[purplepelmets] 27/1/2022 10:23

this is more like it!!!

[sev22] 27/1/2022 08:00

Introduction to House Broker note from FinnCap (finncap.com):

Strong trading update – c.69% visibility on FY 2022 sales Cambridge Cognition provided a positive FY 2021 trading update, with revenues (+50%) in line with expectations, net profit of £0.5m (FC £0.1m est) and year-end cash of £6.8m (FC £7.0m est). After a year of record order intake (£15.7m, +24%) and with a year-end order book of £17.0m (+52% on the prior year), the company is well positioned for FY 2022, with visibility at this early stage in the year on c.69% of FY 2022 revenue forecasts. This update provides further evidence of (i) the demand for virtual clinical trials for which COG is aptly suited and (ii) the prospect of a period of sustained strong growth in what are large (c.£1.2bn) and high growth (+ c.17% pa.) addressable markets for digital solutions for clinical trials, which it is exceeding. We reiterate our target price of 220p, which implies a 2022E EV/sales multiple of 5.6x for its core business and c.15p per share (c.£4.7m) for the value of its interest in Monument Therapeutics.

[40 fathoms] 27/1/2022 07:15

Just to put the valuation in to context the operating profit was ahead of the house brokers figure for 2022. At 112 p we are on a p/e of 65 x trailing and I reckon 30x this year (22) and probably something like 18x next.

[40 fathoms] 27/1/2022 07:04

As expected very very strong update and strong outlook, as we expected this suddenly looks very cheap.

Unaudited highlights for the year ended 31 December 2021


Growth in revenues of 50% to £10.1 million (2020: £6.7 million)

Increase in contracted order backlog of 51% to £17.0 million (31 December 2020: £11.2 million)

Profit after tax for the year of £0.5 million (2020: £0.4 million loss)

Cash balance of £6.8 million at 31 December 2021 (31 December 2020: £3.0 million)

[daijavu] 26/1/2022 00:40

At least Biden's brain is in better shape than Trump's and, when compared to Boris Johnson, he's got the excuse of being old.

[purplepelmets] 23/1/2022 01:56

with Biden's clear and rapidly worsening dementia, you would have expected cognitive testing and awareness in general would be to the forefront.

[40 fathoms] 23/1/2022 01:20

I am very much looking forward to the trading update that we should be getting very soon, it should be very strong.

It still surprises me how little attention we get from the market. I continue to expect that once there is a realisation that we are profitable on a sustainable basis and an there is an understanding that with 90% gross margins, of how quickly profit will grow, we will start to gain more attention.

[40 fathoms] 18/1/2022 00:39

I am a bit surprised that these pre-clinical results did not get an RNS or a press release. As a reminder, Monument Therapeutics is a spin out from Cambridge Cognition and we hold a @36% equity position and will receive royalties on a successful commercialisation of any of their programs. Success in any of these programs has the potential to be worth multiples of our current market cap.

Below is a copy of the press release. They are a new company so can be forgiven but going forward they should get anything like this proof read, typos in press release are not acceptable.


News

Stratified medicine company Monument Therapeutics raises additional £0.5 million to take anti-neuroinflammation candidate MT1980 into clinic

Lipid reformulation of anti-inflammatory compound MT1980 for POCD accelerating into clinic in 2022

Manchester, UK, Dec 14, 2021: Monument Therapeutics, a stratified medicine company, today announced it has raised an additional £0.5 million to accelerate the development of its anti- neuroinflammation compound MT1980, for Post-Operative Cognitive Decline (POCD). MT1980, a lipid-based reformulation of an on-market compound has shown excellent pre-clinical results, facilitating additional investment to take MT1980 into clinic earlier than planned. The first human study is now planned for mid-2022 and success of the compound so far is a clear vindication of Monument’s strategy to de-risk development by reformulating drugs with a favourable safety profile and proven mechanism of action.

POCD is a condition arising from any major surgery, where substantial cognitive impairment arises due partly to neuroinflammation triggered by surgery elsewhere in the body. It is common in people over the age of 65 both immediately (50-80% at discharge 1 ) and persistently (10-30% six months post-surgery ,2 ). Almost 250 million major surgical procedures are performed globally every year 3 but there is no dedicated treatment for POCD.

Jenny Barnett, Chief Executive Officer of Monument Therapeutics, said: “The pre-clinical results with MT1980 are highly promising, showing effects not achieved with standard formulations of the drug. Combined with a patient stratification approach using digital biomarkers, we believe MT1980 has the potential to address the major problem of POCD, and target indications driven by neuroinflammation more broadly. With this new funding we will be able to accelerate our development programme and take MT1980 into human trials next year.”

[sev22] 10/1/2022 08:15

Note from House Broker this morning:

A great start to the new year, increasing FY 2022 revenue visibility and underpinning the recognition within the pharmaceutical industry for Cambridge Cognition’s expertise within the schizophrenia trial setting. Cambridge Cognition announced that it has won two contracts worth £0.7m for a schizophrenia trial with a new top-20 pharmaceutical customer, with revenues expected to be recognised over the next two years. The contracts also include its eCOA (electronic Clinical Trial Outcome Assessment) platform. We leave forecasts unchanged for the time being and estimate that the company has visibility on c.60-65% of FY 2022 revenues already. We reiterate our target price of 220p, which implies a 2022E EV/sales multiple of 5.6x for its core business and c.15p per share (c.£4.7m) for the value of its 36.9% interest in Monument Therapeutics.

Newsflow - £0.7m contract win as the cognitive assessment partner for a new top-20 pharmaceutical company, to assess the pro-cognitive effects of a new drug in schizophrenia and another indication. The company will provide its proprietary cognitive assessments (CANTABTM), its electronic questionnaires and scales platform (eCOA), and specialist, study management services. Revenues are expected to be recognised over two years.

Thoughts and implications - Cambridge Cognition has built a strong reputation in the schizophrenia field for delivering highly sensitive cognitive assessments, having been contracted by one customer in six pivotal trials for its new schizophrenia drug between September 2020 and December 2021 with a total contract value of £4.9m (the last having been for £1m, announced on 9 December). This is the second pharmaceutical client to award Cambridge Cognition major contracts for cognitive assessments for schizophrenia in the last year. The fact that this contract is with a new customer is clearly a positive, offering the potential for follow-on contracts and underpinning the success that the company has had in this therapeutic area. With around c.30 clinical being run every year trials on new drugs for schizophrenia, the potential for further sales in this therapeutic area is clear.

Forecasts - We are leaving forecasts unchanged. However, we estimate that the company already has visibility on c.60-65% of FY 2022 revenues, with all seven of the notifiable contracts announced during 2021 having a component of revenue recognition in 2022.

Valuation - We reiterate our target price of 220p, at which level the stock would trade on 6.1x 2022E EV/Sales, with the core business trading on 5.6x, which excludes the value of its interest in Monument Therapeutics. It excludes the potential impact of any significant pharma partnerships that could include upfront and milestone payments.

[purplepelmets] 16/12/2021 07:47

All these new contract wins should work to greatly increase the margin. Would be nice to see a modest profit for the year after a few years of losses.

[40 fathoms] 16/12/2021 07:42

Yet another RNS, this time for a Phase II eCOA contract. There is no one else in the market with a CNS focused eCOA. Each time they add and deliver new scales or questionnaires to the system they widen the moat.

[sev22] 09/12/2021 09:55

Morning note from House Broker:

£1m contract win – Additional schizophrenia trial.

Cambridge Cognition announced that it has won a further £1.0m contract for a schizophrenia trial and that it is a repeat purchase from an existing client that has contracted for several other clinical trials for schizophrenia. The revenues are expected to be booked over the next three years. This continues to illustrate the early positive customer experience and also demonstrates how Cambridge Cognition can build long-term relationships and revenues by embedding its technology into early clinical trial programmes. Cambridge Cognition will support trials with its computerised cognitive assessment software, CANTABTM, which is used to measure and identify any deficits in memory, attention and executive function together with associated clinical trial services. We leave forecasts unchanged for the time being and reiterate our target price of 220p.

[40 fathoms] 09/12/2021 07:20

RNS out. Put another 1 million in the backlog. COG has unique IP and deep insights in the domain of Schizophrenia and Psychology/Psychiatry. If it were needed this is a reminder that COG benefits from the ongoing investment in Neuroscience broadly and is not just dependent on developments in Alzheimer.

[40 fathoms] 24/11/2021 02:24

Here is the link to the latest Share Magazine investor video. I think it has taken them a while to figure out but it seems to me they are now able to articulate the investment case in a simple and clearly understandable way for even non specialist investors.

[stockt2] 22/11/2021 12:55

Very helpful. Thanks Igbertsponk

[igbertsponk] 22/11/2021 12:52

they have to report every movement that moves them a whole percentage (eg from 5.99% to 6.01%), and when they go above or below 3%.

[stockt2] 22/11/2021 12:44

Ah thanks for the help igbertsponk. If it was a sell you would see the before and after % fall on the form yes ? Thanks again.

[igbertsponk] 22/11/2021 12:40

It's a notification they've now got over 3% - either they've bought or just remembered to admit to it!

[stockt2] 22/11/2021 12:32

Is the TR1 today a buy or a sell ?

[daijavu] 22/11/2021 10:14

Smithie6

Which one don't you respect?

[40 fathoms] 21/11/2021 07:01

So what we have suspected for a while now appears to be in the open. Cambridge Cognition and Biogen have a broad development and commercialisation agreement in place with respect to Cognitive testing.



Page 2 footnotes : †This is not a comprehensive list of tools for assessing cognitive function and is not intended to recommend any particular tool.
Eisai and Cogstate have entered into a development and commercialization agreement. Biogen and Cambridge Cognition have entered into a development and commercialization agreement.

I would love to know the full scope and full terms of that agreement. Remember the Eisai/Cogstate agreement is worth a minimum of US$ 45 million over 10 years with upside potential and all development cost borne by Eisai.

So you have to wonder why Cambridge Cognition has not made more of this, confidentiality for sure but I also wonder if they have signed a non exclusive deal. It seems to me that with Cogstate exclusive to Eisai maybe Cambridge see themselves as being the goto partner for the rest of the market. In addition to the various Biogen/Eisai product that could make it to market we could well have competing products from 3 or 4 other pharmas on market in the next 3 or 4 years.

Given this, it seems almost impossible to imagine that it is not Cambridge Cognition providing its technology in to the Biogen/Apple Intuition Study. As a reminder this is a 23,000 participant, iphone and apple watch based multi year observational study of MCI. This is right at the forefront of digital medicine.

[smithie6] 18/11/2021 21:15

arghhh

some financial presentors, I just don't value or respect. Not both of them, just 1 of the 2.