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COG Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc

0.00 (0.0%)
07 Dec 2023 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc LSE:COG London Ordinary Share GB00B8DV9647 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 53.50 16,626 08:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
52.00 55.00 53.50 53.50 53.50
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Pharmaceutical Preparations 12.61M -409k -0.0117 -45.73 18.65M
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
15:23:25 O 2,626 53.074 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
22/11/202310:12Cambridge Cognition Holdings (COG)539
02/2/202320:18Dementia - Computerised Neuropsychological Testing189
30/4/201921:22Cambridge Cognition at UK Investor Show1
02/9/201714:05COG with Charts & News63

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Posted at 07/12/2023 08:20 by Cambridge Cognition Daily Update
Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc is listed in the Pharmaceutical Preparations sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker COG. The last closing price for Cambridge Cognition was 53.50p.
Cambridge Cognition currently has 34,852,833 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Cambridge Cognition is Ā£18,646,266.
Cambridge Cognition has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of -45.73.
This morning COG shares opened at 53.50p
Posted at 09/11/2023 16:06 by earwacks
Minsky If it is there is a complete misunderstanding of what COG do. Which is quite possible.there is plenty of info out there to explain
Posted at 09/11/2023 05:26 by 40 fathoms
It looks like many companies on AIM at the moment, sellers need to sell and no one needs to buy. Underlying progress has no influence on share price.

I think it is worth noting that 2 of the 5 instos shareholders that took equity as part of the Winterlight acquisition have sold out post the expiry of their lock up and were very aggressive sellers during October.
Posted at 13/10/2023 03:42 by 40 fathoms
This link is to an investor day video that was posted today by Cogstate to help investors understand the their cognitive digital trials business. The video is long, so it might something for the weekend viewing.

Cogstate is a very similar company to CAMCOG. However, it is further advanced in its commercial development and has a much narrower focus, primarily on Alzheimer's (@70% of revenue) and rare diseases (@10% of revenue). At this point the companies are rarely in direct competition and for both of them their biggest competitors remain the providers of traditional pencil and paper tests. Just to give a sense of the potential size and scope of these markets last year Cogstate put out an estimate that despite being far in the lead in AD they still only had @17% of cognitive testing in the AD trials market. It is also worth noting that CAMCOG is involved with numerous early stage AD trials and will end up with a decent share of the AD market overtime.

The video gives a very good overview of the cognitive testing business case and also the huge and deep moat that these companies are able to enjoy. It also shows very clearly how well CAMCOG is positioned in the cognitive trial services ecosystem. CAMCOG is far ahead, both in terms of its technology and the scope of services it is able to offer in to trials. It is also probably also worth mentioning that AD only represents about 15% of the total spend in CNS space.

I hold both companies and it is clear that both will grow revenue significantly in the coming 3 or 4 years. However, for CAMCOG specifically we should understand it is about 3 or 4 years behind Cogstate in its move from R&D and validation to commercialisation. Cogstate clearly demonstrates the commercial path and revenue trajectory that we are on.
Posted at 28/9/2023 05:10 by earwacks
Glad I persevered the torturous effort to sign in for this webinar renewing passwords with battery running out on the mobile etc.
This is the most accurate diagnostic company with cheaper less accurate competition from about 1 other company. They have 10 of the top global pharmaceutical companies as clients and counting. Clearly they were short footed by delayed contracts in the first half, the main reason for the loan note, but also to finish the integration of Winterlight and Clinpal to be able to offer combined solutions. They are confident of no more funding required and will meet forecasts for full year. 60/40 split between institutional and private shareholders which explains the over reaction in the share price drop I think. All they have to do now is prove it. Baring circumstances outside their control I am confident they will.
Posted at 22/9/2023 11:15 by earwacks
Absolutely no shares available today. Yet they are still prepared to take all my stock in one go. Interesting. I know this can simply be a case of there is no stock available to buy, but then how is the share price supposed to go up?
Posted at 20/9/2023 19:42 by earwacks
Nice one Fathom40. I was contemplating a top up here before results next week. Anything pharma, healthcare, diagnostics seems to be coming very much under the spotlight, particularly with any connection to the buzzword AI. Slightly surprised Cog has not reacted so far. little interest from the market except Cannacord moved their holing up over 10 percent September 6th. Watched their capital markets presentation, which is hard work to be honest (Mathew Stork was excellent)but of course there are some very interesting takes from it not least the progress in drug developments that the pharma are very keen to get analysed by Cog and their two acquisitions. Looks like lower double digit growth minimum. I remember you saying it would take a year or two to really take off. I suspect there will be plenty about that too. Fingers crossed. Real struggle to get a top up . They quite happy to take my entire holing at a derisory price if I wanted. My order from yesterday never got filled even at a higher price than some small trades going through. Managed to get a few in 3 chunks @ 92.88. Bizar market makers. Youd think they would just whack up the price. Obviously dont believe in supply and demand
Posted at 13/6/2023 06:53 by 40 fathoms
"Cambridge Cognition (AIM: COG), which develops and markets digital solutions to assess brain health, is pleased to announce it has won a £2 million contract for a pivotal cancer therapy trial. The Company will provide its proprietary cognitive assessments (CANTABĀ®) as an exploratory endpoint with revenue from the contract expected to be recognised over the next five years."

Excellent, another chunky contract and all the better for being in an non CNS trial as a safety endpoint.
Posted at 25/2/2023 10:05 by 40 fathoms
Situation is interesting at Cogstate, it is clear that Martin Myer is prepared to sell. With that Cogstate will not last more than 18 months as a listed company and that will see interest quickly turn to Cambridge Cognition. It is also certain that he will not let the business go cheaply, he certainly does not need the money as he is part of the Myer Department Stores family dynasty. I assume this might be why the talks broke down, it is also clear that last week the possibility of a takeover leaked given the huge sure in volumes. Anyway, if and when they sell at a great price it will be fantastically supportive for Cambridge Cognitions share price, as its business is much higher margin, its technology is much more sensitive and it has a much wider therapeutic area focus.

The read across for Cambridge Cognition on the profit warning was limited. The warning relates mainly to a slower than expected enrolment at a very large Phase III AD trial being conducted by Eli Lilly. When I say large trial the contracted amount is something like a $ 28 million over 3 years and they are right in the meat of it at the moement. Their test is being used as an endpoint. Overtime what constitutes a large contract for Cambridge Cognition will rise considerably. Currently $ 2-3 million is the upper range of what we sign. As we start to see more large neurodegenerative Phase III trials and offer a full range of service we will see contracts in excess of $10 million.

All of the forward looking metrics Cogstate gave were positive, both book to bill and cash inflow. They will report full details next Tuesday.
Posted at 07/1/2023 09:32 by 40 fathoms
Yesterday evening Eisai/Biogen recived accelerated FDA approval for Lecenamab, which will now be renamed as Leqembi. This is a drug that will be used to treat early stage Alzheimers and although it is far from perfect this is a pivotal moment along the path to changing the treatment paradigm in AD.

The follow on effects for Cambridge Cognition over the next decade will be significant and twofold. Firstly, you will see a significant number of new AD clinical trials initiated, both for new APIs targeting beta amyloid and also targeting new mechanisms of action. In addition you will start to see trials of drug combinations. Leqembi and Donepezil would be an obvious one, given that Aricept is also an Eisai drug. A share of all this additional work will come to Cambridge Cognition.

Secondly, now that we have the ability to modify the disease, faster and earlier diagnosis of AD is going to be crucial. It will not be affordable, nor practicable to definitively test everyone (PET scan or lumbar puncture) who turns up in the GP clinic saying they forgot where they left the car in the carpark last week or they could not remember the name of their postman. The answer is a quick, cheap and accurate digital test that will determine if your cognition is normal, both against your peer group but also against yourself when tested longitudinally. There are only two companies that are in a position to provide widely validated, highly sensitive, digital administered tests and Cambridge Cognition is one of these companies.

Over the next decade, globally. Tests in this health screening market should be somewhere between 5 million & 50 million annually, multiply this number by @ $10-$12 per test (this is an estimate of what Cogstate will receive via its licensing agreement with Eisai) and then assign a percentage of the resultant figure to Cambridge Cognition. If we take 5 million tests per year and US$ 10 dollars per test and assign a 10% market share to Cambridge Cognition that would be US$ 5 million dollars in annual revenue and note that revenue has 95%+ gross margin. If we keep Cambridge's share of the market at 10% but increase the $ per test to $12 and estimating a market of 30 million tests per year. We would see a COG revenue of $36 million per year.

Just for a little bit more context as to how this market might evolve you might look at what Eisai and Cogstate are starting to do in Japan. In Japan it is mandatory for an employer to offer an annual health check, known as kenko shindan. Eisai is working on having their Cognigram tests included for all over 50s. They are starting to also have them embedded in private health insurance physicals and they are also exploring with the government making them a part of the driving licence renewal process, after a certain age. The other factor to consider is that once you are on some form of treatment you will be tested regularly to make sure the drug is having a positive effect.

Last but not least Eli Lilly will be filling with the FDA before the end of 2023 for approval of their beta amyloid clearing therapy known as daonanemab. Should this be approved this will reinforce all of the factors highlighted above..
Posted at 13/9/2022 01:09 by 40 fathoms
@tratante - While Cambridge Cognition has the most sensitive measures in AD it is not the digital test market leader, that is Cogstate which is listed in Australia. Nevertheless, there is still very significant growth in the AD market for COG, especially with their new voice product and some of the multimodal work they are doing which is absolutely at the leading edge.

The point I wanted to make is that less than 20% of COGs revenue and even less of its contracted back log comes from dementia trials. COG covers the whole CNS spectrum and outside of AD it is by far the (digital) market leader. This is important because the research dollars spent on these other conditions in total, is many, many times that spent on Alzheimer's. Think Attention Deficit Disorders, OCD, stroke, TBI, Autisum, Epilepsy,MS,Sleep Disorders, Depression, Schizophrenia, Parkinson's, Huntingdon's, PTSD, addiction issues, Cognition as a safety endpoint in non CNS drugs .... the list goes on.

But your point remains, the ability to be able to objectively and repeatidly test various aspects of cognition away from a test centre and without a rater present is a fast growing niche with a huge moat and only Cambridge Cognition and Cogstate have validated and viable digital products. At this point these two are only competing against, traditional pencil and paper tests and are capturing significantly less than 10% of the trial opportunities available to them. Within 10 years all clinical trial related cognitive test will be digital.

The last point in order not to make this post too long, CNS trials are often very long in duration (as you are usually looking at change overtime) and require large numbers of participants in order to be properly powered. At this point neither COG nor CGS are working on many Phase III trials. As Phase I and II trails progress some will move to Phase III and this is where the mega sized contracts are. Last year Cogstate signed a Phase III AD contract worth @US$15.5 million over 4 years.
Cambridge Cognition share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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