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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc LSE:COG London Ordinary Share GB00B8DV9647 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  1.50 1.32% 115.00 28,951 10:10:23
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
113.00 117.00 116.00 113.50 113.50
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Health Care Equipment & Services 10.09 0.25 1.40 82.1 36
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
14:17:26 O 5,079 116.774 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
06/2/202314:36Cambridge Cognition Holdings (COG)456
02/2/202320:18Dementia - Computerised Neuropsychological Testing189
30/4/201921:22Cambridge Cognition at UK Investor Show1
02/9/201714:05COG with Charts & News63

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Posted at 07/2/2023 08:20 by Cambridge Cognition Daily Update
Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc is listed in the Health Care Equipment & Services sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker COG. The last closing price for Cambridge Cognition was 113.50p.
Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc has a 4 week average price of 107.50p and a 12 week average price of 107.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 187.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 102.50p.
There are currently 31,170,093 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 153,864 shares. The market capitalisation of Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc is £35,845,606.95.
Posted at 30/1/2023 23:33 by 40 fathoms
As far as the share price is concerned I think it will be a pretty important update. Operationally, we know it will be in line and we can expect the overall outlook for the business to remain strong, however I feel some shareholders will be disappointed if management do not provide a clear roadmap for the next 2 or 3 years that demonstrates good levels of sustained and growing profitability.
Posted at 07/1/2023 09:32 by 40 fathoms
Yesterday evening Eisai/Biogen recived accelerated FDA approval for Lecenamab, which will now be renamed as Leqembi. This is a drug that will be used to treat early stage Alzheimers and although it is far from perfect this is a pivotal moment along the path to changing the treatment paradigm in AD.

The follow on effects for Cambridge Cognition over the next decade will be significant and twofold. Firstly, you will see a significant number of new AD clinical trials initiated, both for new APIs targeting beta amyloid and also targeting new mechanisms of action. In addition you will start to see trials of drug combinations. Leqembi and Donepezil would be an obvious one, given that Aricept is also an Eisai drug. A share of all this additional work will come to Cambridge Cognition.

Secondly, now that we have the ability to modify the disease, faster and earlier diagnosis of AD is going to be crucial. It will not be affordable, nor practicable to definitively test everyone (PET scan or lumbar puncture) who turns up in the GP clinic saying they forgot where they left the car in the carpark last week or they could not remember the name of their postman. The answer is a quick, cheap and accurate digital test that will determine if your cognition is normal, both against your peer group but also against yourself when tested longitudinally. There are only two companies that are in a position to provide widely validated, highly sensitive, digital administered tests and Cambridge Cognition is one of these companies.

Over the next decade, globally. Tests in this health screening market should be somewhere between 5 million & 50 million annually, multiply this number by @ $10-$12 per test (this is an estimate of what Cogstate will receive via its licensing agreement with Eisai) and then assign a percentage of the resultant figure to Cambridge Cognition. If we take 5 million tests per year and US$ 10 dollars per test and assign a 10% market share to Cambridge Cognition that would be US$ 5 million dollars in annual revenue and note that revenue has 95%+ gross margin. If we keep Cambridge's share of the market at 10% but increase the $ per test to $12 and estimating a market of 30 million tests per year. We would see a COG revenue of $36 million per year.

Just for a little bit more context as to how this market might evolve you might look at what Eisai and Cogstate are starting to do in Japan. In Japan it is mandatory for an employer to offer an annual health check, known as kenko shindan. Eisai is working on having their Cognigram tests included for all over 50s. They are starting to also have them embedded in private health insurance physicals and they are also exploring with the government making them a part of the driving licence renewal process, after a certain age. The other factor to consider is that once you are on some form of treatment you will be tested regularly to make sure the drug is having a positive effect.

Last but not least Eli Lilly will be filling with the FDA before the end of 2023 for approval of their beta amyloid clearing therapy known as daonanemab. Should this be approved this will reinforce all of the factors highlighted above..

Posted at 24/11/2022 07:25 by 40 fathoms
Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc (AIM: COG), which develops and markets digital solutions to assess brain health, is pleased to announce an expansion in the Chinese market through a strategic partnership with Luca Healthcare Limited ("Luca Healthcare"), a category leader in digital screening, treatment and management tools in China. Cambridge Cognition has signed an exclusive licencing agreement with Luca Healthcare to commercialise the Company's suite of leading cognitive assessment tools in China for both the pharmaceutical and healthcare markets.

Luca Healthcare looks like a quality outfit at first glance, although only a few years old, they look well-funded (completed a funding round a few months ago) and in a short period have also entered into strategic partnerships with Astrazeneca and Thermo Fisher, among others.

Posted at 28/9/2022 03:08 by 40 fathoms
The headline results from Eisai's Lecanemab Phase III trial, known as CLARITY, were released this morning and the headlines are good. We will need to wait a couple of months to get all of the data but if it matches the headlines this could well be approved by the FDA and should attract a lot less controversy than the Aducanumab approval and roll out.

This is excellent for Cogstate who are partnered with Eisai and who's ADAS-COG battery has been used as a primary endpoint. But indirectly, it is also great news for us, this will result in a significant amount of additional investment in the CNS space and it should also start the journey of properly opening up the healthcare side of our business. As we get viable options on the market (Eli Lilly has a similar product due to read out in the next 10 months) and Roche also has a phase III readout due early in the new year (although expectations here are lower), healthcare professionals are going to need triage tools to work out quickly and cheaply who is likely to need further testing to determine suitability for treatment. Only Cogstate and Cambridge Cognition have validated, digital tests, that have been widely used in healthcare setting that can determine if the various domains of your cognition are in a normal range or not. Overtime this has the potential to be very significant revenue line indeed. Potentially millions of tests a year at a price relatively inexpensive price point, probably in the range of US$ 10 and US$ 20 per test.

A final point, you have to feel a bit sorry for Biogen and Aducanumab, if the Eisai results hold up once the data is released it is then highly, despite the controversy that it acutely does have a positive therapeutic effect. It suffered from bad luck and from being the first mover and having to absorb the investable lessons that entails in a new therapeutic area. However, luckily for Biogen they also have a 50% share of Lecanemab, so have been able to pass on these learnings to Eisai, their partner.

Posted at 13/9/2022 01:09 by 40 fathoms
@tratante - While Cambridge Cognition has the most sensitive measures in AD it is not the digital test market leader, that is Cogstate which is listed in Australia. Nevertheless, there is still very significant growth in the AD market for COG, especially with their new voice product and some of the multimodal work they are doing which is absolutely at the leading edge.

The point I wanted to make is that less than 20% of COGs revenue and even less of its contracted back log comes from dementia trials. COG covers the whole CNS spectrum and outside of AD it is by far the (digital) market leader. This is important because the research dollars spent on these other conditions in total, is many, many times that spent on Alzheimer's. Think Attention Deficit Disorders, OCD, stroke, TBI, Autisum, Epilepsy,MS,Sleep Disorders, Depression, Schizophrenia, Parkinson's, Huntingdon's, PTSD, addiction issues, Cognition as a safety endpoint in non CNS drugs .... the list goes on.

But your point remains, the ability to be able to objectively and repeatidly test various aspects of cognition away from a test centre and without a rater present is a fast growing niche with a huge moat and only Cambridge Cognition and Cogstate have validated and viable digital products. At this point these two are only competing against, traditional pencil and paper tests and are capturing significantly less than 10% of the trial opportunities available to them. Within 10 years all clinical trial related cognitive test will be digital.

The last point in order not to make this post too long, CNS trials are often very long in duration (as you are usually looking at change overtime) and require large numbers of participants in order to be properly powered. At this point neither COG nor CGS are working on many Phase III trials. As Phase I and II trails progress some will move to Phase III and this is where the mega sized contracts are. Last year Cogstate signed a Phase III AD contract worth @US$15.5 million over 4 years.

Posted at 21/7/2022 07:29 by sev22
All is well under the bonnet despite the recent share price decline.

Even the technicals look good as share price looks like it could bounce from this strong support level as has happened many times in the past.

"Continued strong growth & outlook"
Rev +31% £5.9 (£4.5).
PAT inline.
Contracted Order book 18.6m (YE21 17.1m).
Cash 8.6m (YE21 6.8m) provides platform for considered investments as opportunities arise.
Healthy growing qualified pipeline opportunities for H222.

Cambridge Cognition should be pretty recession proof, benefits from strong sector tailwinds and also a management team which has transformed #COG into a profitable, fast growing company with lots of future contracted revenue, no debt and a growing cash pile. Happily it also benefits from an 80% gross margin so can easily invest in the future.

I have noticed that COG are advertising for quite a few roles which suggests they are not short of work.

Posted at 14/7/2022 12:45 by vasilis
Many thanks for that reply 40F.

In my experience where there is a significant and opportunistic seller there is always pressure on the downside for a period of time, especially if an overhang occurs that needs shifting. PIs can make good use of this where companies such as COG are sound and the share price is weak as MMs will generally drop the share price to a level that draws in buyers to reduce/clear the overhang.

Predicting a future entry point for new buyers is, as Bohr implies, 'very difficult' - but until the share price starts to firm upwards I will assume - based on Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle - that the seller is still around even if I cannot isolate his current holding position or selling momentum at the same time :-)

Posted at 14/7/2022 09:19 by vasilis
40 Fathoms

I've kept an eye on this company these past couple of years and have noted the following :-

1 In the annual report and accounts made up to 31.12.19 on page 12 a Mr Michael Buxton is shown as holding 9.3% of the company's shares as at 23 June 2020 -
https://www.cambridgecognition.com/file-uploads/Cambridge_Cognition_Holdings_plc_2019_Annual_Report.pdf

2 In the Sunday Times of 27 March 2022 a 'Tipster' article by Lucy Tobin rated COG as a buy at around 116p per share and the price then motored northwards to c.180p - perhaps influenced in part by the article. However, today's price as I type (14.7.22) is below 116p - not helped I would presume by Mr Buxton's continued selling.

3 In an RNS TR1 dated 30 June 2022 Mr Buxton's shareholding is now declared at going below 3%. In other words Mr Buxton appears to have disposed of over 6% of the company's shares in the last two years and could now continue to sell if he so wished without I believe the need for any further RNS.

Clearly Mr Buxton has his own private reasons for selling but under current market conditions and the weakness in the share price over the last few months makes me conclude that until his future intentions are known as to whether or not shares will continue to be fed into the market, there is limited scope for any upside in the share price as even if some good news does materialise that could merely just accelerate any further planned selling. Thoughts?

Posted at 07/3/2022 11:58 by 40 fathoms
In CNS for remote digital measures of cognition there is effectively no competition to Cogstate and Cambridge Cognition, for all the reasons we have mentioned before. To the extent that they do have competition it is pencil and paper tests.

Outside of CNS, I think you should be looking at it the other way around. To what extent should other CROs be worried about the competition to their offering. These guys don't have validated digital measures and it is much easier and cheaper for them to bring in a Cogstate or a Cambridge Cognition for that function. This is already happening Cogstate has partnered with ERT (Now Clario), Cambridge Cognition provides its services to a number of CROs.

As trials move more and more in to voice, wearables, RW etc these guys move further and further ahead, their tests get more and more sensitive. Pushing a pen and paper test on line with a rater looking over your shoulder on zoom is not competition. That said, I am not sure either Cogstate or Cambridge Cognition are interested in commodity style work. Both have excellent gross margins and a tonne of high margin growth ahead of them. One of the things Matthew Stork has done here to recognise what COG does is valuable to its clients and to make sure they are properly paid for work they do. We have 80% gross margins, from memory Cogstate has 60% so their is no need to chase after the crumbs. The difference in gross margins between the two before you ask, is we in essence just provide software, in addition to software Cogstate also provides services such as Raters and rater training and these are lower margin products. You will note the CGSs margin jumps about a bit based on the product mix booked during any reporting period.

Posted at 10/1/2022 08:15 by sev22
Note from House Broker this morning:

A great start to the new year, increasing FY 2022 revenue visibility and underpinning the recognition within the pharmaceutical industry for Cambridge Cognition’s expertise within the schizophrenia trial setting. Cambridge Cognition announced that it has won two contracts worth £0.7m for a schizophrenia trial with a new top-20 pharmaceutical customer, with revenues expected to be recognised over the next two years. The contracts also include its eCOA (electronic Clinical Trial Outcome Assessment) platform. We leave forecasts unchanged for the time being and estimate that the company has visibility on c.60-65% of FY 2022 revenues already. We reiterate our target price of 220p, which implies a 2022E EV/sales multiple of 5.6x for its core business and c.15p per share (c.£4.7m) for the value of its 36.9% interest in Monument Therapeutics.

Newsflow - £0.7m contract win as the cognitive assessment partner for a new top-20 pharmaceutical company, to assess the pro-cognitive effects of a new drug in schizophrenia and another indication. The company will provide its proprietary cognitive assessments (CANTABTM), its electronic questionnaires and scales platform (eCOA), and specialist, study management services. Revenues are expected to be recognised over two years.

Thoughts and implications - Cambridge Cognition has built a strong reputation in the schizophrenia field for delivering highly sensitive cognitive assessments, having been contracted by one customer in six pivotal trials for its new schizophrenia drug between September 2020 and December 2021 with a total contract value of £4.9m (the last having been for £1m, announced on 9 December). This is the second pharmaceutical client to award Cambridge Cognition major contracts for cognitive assessments for schizophrenia in the last year. The fact that this contract is with a new customer is clearly a positive, offering the potential for follow-on contracts and underpinning the success that the company has had in this therapeutic area. With around c.30 clinical being run every year trials on new drugs for schizophrenia, the potential for further sales in this therapeutic area is clear.

Forecasts - We are leaving forecasts unchanged. However, we estimate that the company already has visibility on c.60-65% of FY 2022 revenues, with all seven of the notifiable contracts announced during 2021 having a component of revenue recognition in 2022.

Valuation - We reiterate our target price of 220p, at which level the stock would trade on 6.1x 2022E EV/Sales, with the core business trading on 5.6x, which excludes the value of its interest in Monument Therapeutics. It excludes the potential impact of any significant pharma partnerships that could include upfront and milestone payments.

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