Cambridge Cognition Share Discussion Threads

[40 fathoms] 24/11/2022 00:15

A recent Series A pitch from Monument Therapeutics, you may recall this was spun out from Cambridge Cognition last year. So over the next 24 months they will have two programs enter proof of mechinism studies and add two new pipeline programs.

As a reminder Cambridge Cognition has a low, double digit top line royalty and currently (subject to Series A dillution) a @30% equity position. This combination currently sits in the Cambridge Cognition books for @£50k.

[janeann] 19/10/2022 15:50

yes 40F - I was pretty pleased to see a new contract and that it is out of COGs conventional area very encouraging. Added a couple ofdays ago and nearly bought more this am...should have done!!

[40 fathoms] 19/10/2022 06:20

£1.1 million eCOA contract win for rare blood disease trial


Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc (AIM: COG), which develops and markets digital solutions to assess brain health, is pleased to announce that it has won a £1.1m contract with a major pharmaceutical company to provide electronic clinical outcome assessments ("eCOA") and hardware for a rare blood disease study running over the next two years. The new contract, with an existing customer, is for a mixture of eCOA licenses, services and hardware to support an upcoming clinical trial.

Really interesting to note that this is eCOA only and in a non CNS condition and does not incorporate any cognitive testing/battery .

This one is spread over the the next 24 months and 80% will fall to the bottom line .... pretty certain there will be a few more before the year is out.

[40 fathoms] 14/10/2022 05:21

It is probably nothing but it might be a small hint of something to come. Also there is a sort of precedent when we look at how the Cambridge Cognition relationship with /revenue from Biogen has evolved over the last @3 years. The improvement can roughly be dated to Biogen employing, in to their Digital health team, former Cambridge Cognition scientist Matt Hobbs. Not clear to me if it was chicken or egg, but it this marks a visable uptick in the relationship.

With that in mind, I note the very impressive CV'ed Philippa Rock, after completing her PhD in Psychiatry in 2010 spent the next 4 years as a scientist at Cambridge Cognition, joined Google earlier this month. She seems to have joined, in a business development capacity and one would assume it is digital health focused as her whole career has been focused in that area. In addition, we know that Google is putting money in to digital health, particularly with a focus on cognition and mental health. As recently as November 2018 she was co-authoring papers examining the performance of CANTAB.

Might be something to watch in my opinion.

[tratante] 12/10/2022 06:59

Thanks for the analysis 40F. Agree this is an excellent acquisition for COG.

[mdchand] 12/10/2022 06:51

Hi 40F, your expert views are (as always) greatly appreciated. I am waiting for the trigger that starts to rerate this share upwards, but until then, happy to watch and wait.

[40 fathoms] 12/10/2022 06:40

"Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc (AIM: COG), which develops and markets digital solutions to assess brain health, is pleased to announce that it has entered into an agreement to acquire the entire issued share capital of eClinicalHealth Ltd ("eClinicalHealth" or "eCH"), a virtual clinical trial ("VCT") solution provider, for consideration of up to approximately £1.7 million. This presents an exciting opportunity for the Company to expand its VCT offering considerably in a rapid growth market."

A very, very shrewed acquisition, a very sensible price paid and sensibly structured. It substantially fills out their offering and will allow them to sell a complete VCT product in to CNS trials. It would cost them at least the acquisition price to build out that capability and then a number of years to gain acceptance for it, they have a working product in use with leading Pharma clients, from the end of this month.

Over the coming years this will return many multiples of the acquisition price.

"The acquisition could add 5-15% to expected Company revenues in 2023 and make a positive contribution in 2024" based on that forecast revenue from the acquisition in 2023 is expected to be between @0.65 million to 1.950 million. One would assume that the large difference relates to earlier or later start date for clinal trials they have in the order book.

[40 fathoms] 28/9/2022 03:08

The headline results from Eisai's Lecanemab Phase III trial, known as CLARITY, were released this morning and the headlines are good. We will need to wait a couple of months to get all of the data but if it matches the headlines this could well be approved by the FDA and should attract a lot less controversy than the Aducanumab approval and roll out.

This is excellent for Cogstate who are partnered with Eisai and who's ADAS-COG battery has been used as a primary endpoint. But indirectly, it is also great news for us, this will result in a significant amount of additional investment in the CNS space and it should also start the journey of properly opening up the healthcare side of our business. As we get viable options on the market (Eli Lilly has a similar product due to read out in the next 10 months) and Roche also has a phase III readout due early in the new year (although expectations here are lower), healthcare professionals are going to need triage tools to work out quickly and cheaply who is likely to need further testing to determine suitability for treatment. Only Cogstate and Cambridge Cognition have validated, digital tests, that have been widely used in healthcare setting that can determine if the various domains of your cognition are in a normal range or not. Overtime this has the potential to be very significant revenue line indeed. Potentially millions of tests a year at a price relatively inexpensive price point, probably in the range of US$ 10 and US$ 20 per test.

A final point, you have to feel a bit sorry for Biogen and Aducanumab, if the Eisai results hold up once the data is released it is then highly, despite the controversy that it acutely does have a positive therapeutic effect. It suffered from bad luck and from being the first mover and having to absorb the investable lessons that entails in a new therapeutic area. However, luckily for Biogen they also have a 50% share of Lecanemab, so have been able to pass on these learnings to Eisai, their partner.

[tratante] 21/9/2022 08:58

I agree entirely, this is an excellent growth story with lots of potential. Not selling any of mine!

[ga_dti] 21/9/2022 08:26

Latest CEO interview discussing highlights from the first half, growth, new appointments and opportunities in new therapeutic areas -

[40 fathoms] 20/9/2022 23:59

There is nothing to be worried about with the profit fall, firstly we are are making significant investment in to sales/support/development infrastructure and R&D. Secondly, on an accounting basis we are hovering (as planned) at just above breakeven, but the headlines I saw used the percentage decrease in profits to dramatic effect. However, the size of the fall in profits YoY is a bit more mundane, we are talking about @GBP 65,000 fall... this is the equivalent to one middle ranking hire or perhaps they had some guests at the office and decided to turn the kettle on.

The key metrics for this business, at this stage are, size and growth of contracted backlog, gross profit and changes in net cash levels.

@cerrito - The significant bulk of the trade payables is deferred income so it is the difference between the cash received from customers and revenue that has not yet been recognised. From memory the software component is the biggest distorting factor and this consists mainly of licences which are billed in full up front but are only recognised over the life of the licence or on a consumption basis (i.e the licence is say for 500 assessments and the revenue is only recognised as those assessments are administered ). The distortion between cash recived and recognition in the services/hardware segments is much less as these are invoiced/recognised at a point in time or against a specific project milestones.

[cerrito] 20/9/2022 20:32

A rather taciturn statement and too bad no IMC type event.
I can understand why the prices drifted down due to decreased profits following the increase in admin expenses.
I need to go to the AR to remind myself what the nature of their trade payables are.
As they say they say they have a stable shareholder base. Only 3 change of holdings RNS in the last 12 months and they have all involved Michael Buxton.
One noteworthy feature of their balance sheet is its liquidity ie 95% of total assets are either cash or trade receivables, which given their customer base are I imagine high quality.
Given that last year 60% of sales were in the US, they presumably have good currency tailwinds and I note this is not mentioned in the Interims
No intention of selling given positive commercial outlook and strong cash flow but feel I have enough for the moment
PS
Have read the note from joint broker Dowgate Capital. I have hardly run into them and do not know the quality of their work. FWIW they maintain their TP at 220p. I see that they have 2022 revenues at £11.7m and Gross Profit at £9.4m which suggest H2 figures of £5.9m and £4.7m respectively ie a small increase on H1.

[tratante] 20/9/2022 11:43

Judging by the share price reaction it seems the punters don't like the fall in profit.

[40 fathoms] 20/9/2022 06:35

Interim Results just out, strong revenue growth, strong increase in contracted order backlog, strong investment in corporate infrasturuture and R&D and Strong Outlook for more of the same. Lots to like.

[johnwise] 20/9/2022 06:33

The Company has no Debt.. Continued growth in cash balances to GBP8.6 million at 30 June 2022 (31 December 2021: GBP6.8 million)

20/09/2022 7:00am

UK Regulatory (RNS & others)

RNS Number : 8974Z

Cambridge Cognition Holdings PLC Interim Results

The Company followed its strong performance in 2021 with a 31% growth in revenues to GBP5.9million in the first half of 2022 (H1 2021: GBP4.5 million). Order intake was in line with the Board's expectations at GBP7.2 million, up 44% on a like-for-like basis on H1 2021 (H1 2021:GBP8.6 million, including GBP3.6 million of one-off orders) and the Company has a growing, qualified pipeline of opportunities for the second half of 2022.

The contracted order book was GBP18.6 million at 30 June 2022 increasing from GBP17.1m at 31 December 2021. The order book provides the Company with visibility over future revenues and provides a solid foundation from which the Company can continue to invest in product and commercial development to further expand the business.

[tratante] 13/9/2022 17:41

@40Fathoms, excellent points well made! Thanks for an informative post. Plenty of opportunity for both companies to expand.

[40 fathoms] 13/9/2022 01:09

@tratante - While Cambridge Cognition has the most sensitive measures in AD it is not the digital test market leader, that is Cogstate which is listed in Australia. Nevertheless, there is still very significant growth in the AD market for COG, especially with their new voice product and some of the multimodal work they are doing which is absolutely at the leading edge.

The point I wanted to make is that less than 20% of COGs revenue and even less of its contracted back log comes from dementia trials. COG covers the whole CNS spectrum and outside of AD it is by far the (digital) market leader. This is important because the research dollars spent on these other conditions in total, is many, many times that spent on Alzheimer's. Think Attention Deficit Disorders, OCD, stroke, TBI, Autisum, Epilepsy,MS,Sleep Disorders, Depression, Schizophrenia, Parkinson's, Huntingdon's, PTSD, addiction issues, Cognition as a safety endpoint in non CNS drugs .... the list goes on.

But your point remains, the ability to be able to objectively and repeatidly test various aspects of cognition away from a test centre and without a rater present is a fast growing niche with a huge moat and only Cambridge Cognition and Cogstate have validated and viable digital products. At this point these two are only competing against, traditional pencil and paper tests and are capturing significantly less than 10% of the trial opportunities available to them. Within 10 years all clinical trial related cognitive test will be digital.

The last point in order not to make this post too long, CNS trials are often very long in duration (as you are usually looking at change overtime) and require large numbers of participants in order to be properly powered. At this point neither COG nor CGS are working on many Phase III trials. As Phase I and II trails progress some will move to Phase III and this is where the mega sized contracts are. Last year Cogstate signed a Phase III AD contract worth @US$15.5 million over 4 years.

[hydrus] 12/9/2022 14:51

There were 60 employees as per annual report at end of 2021 and now there are 17 jobs listed on their website. That suggests huge confidence in there being an acceleration in growth I guess.

[tratante] 01/9/2022 15:38

And you have to agree with him. If there is an area that will continue to grow it's research into dementia. This is a great little company with an exciting niche pretty much all to itself! Flying below the radar of most.

[fegger] 01/9/2022 09:03

Paul Scott has commented on COG this morning that 'probably the share that causes me least anxiety to hold, because it has no relationship with consumer demand, or the economic cycle'

[40 fathoms] 01/9/2022 06:08

The contracts keep coming and this is a very decent sized one with a repeat customer !

"Cambridge Cognition wins £2.2 million neurodegenerative disease trial

Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc (AIM: COG), which develops and markets digital solutions to assess brain health, is pleased to announce that it has won a £2.2 million contract providing cognitive assessments and electronic diaries for a neurodegenerative disease trial. Revenue from the contract is expected over the next two financial years. This is a follow-on sale from a £2.1 million contract announced by the Company on 2 February 2022 with the same customer."