Cambridge Cognition Share Discussion Threads

[40 fathoms] 12/10/2022 07:40

"Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc (AIM: COG), which develops and markets digital solutions to assess brain health, is pleased to announce that it has entered into an agreement to acquire the entire issued share capital of eClinicalHealth Ltd ("eClinicalHealth" or "eCH"), a virtual clinical trial ("VCT") solution provider, for consideration of up to approximately £1.7 million. This presents an exciting opportunity for the Company to expand its VCT offering considerably in a rapid growth market."

A very, very shrewed acquisition, a very sensible price paid and sensibly structured. It substantially fills out their offering and will allow them to sell a complete VCT product in to CNS trials. It would cost them at least the acquisition price to build out that capability and then a number of years to gain acceptance for it, they have a working product in use with leading Pharma clients, from the end of this month.

Over the coming years this will return many multiples of the acquisition price.

"The acquisition could add 5-15% to expected Company revenues in 2023 and make a positive contribution in 2024" based on that forecast revenue from the acquisition in 2023 is expected to be between @0.65 million to 1.950 million. One would assume that the large difference relates to earlier or later start date for clinal trials they have in the order book.

[40 fathoms] 28/9/2022 04:08

The headline results from Eisai's Lecanemab Phase III trial, known as CLARITY, were released this morning and the headlines are good. We will need to wait a couple of months to get all of the data but if it matches the headlines this could well be approved by the FDA and should attract a lot less controversy than the Aducanumab approval and roll out.

This is excellent for Cogstate who are partnered with Eisai and who's ADAS-COG battery has been used as a primary endpoint. But indirectly, it is also great news for us, this will result in a significant amount of additional investment in the CNS space and it should also start the journey of properly opening up the healthcare side of our business. As we get viable options on the market (Eli Lilly has a similar product due to read out in the next 10 months) and Roche also has a phase III readout due early in the new year (although expectations here are lower), healthcare professionals are going to need triage tools to work out quickly and cheaply who is likely to need further testing to determine suitability for treatment. Only Cogstate and Cambridge Cognition have validated, digital tests, that have been widely used in healthcare setting that can determine if the various domains of your cognition are in a normal range or not. Overtime this has the potential to be very significant revenue line indeed. Potentially millions of tests a year at a price relatively inexpensive price point, probably in the range of US$ 10 and US$ 20 per test.

A final point, you have to feel a bit sorry for Biogen and Aducanumab, if the Eisai results hold up once the data is released it is then highly, despite the controversy that it acutely does have a positive therapeutic effect. It suffered from bad luck and from being the first mover and having to absorb the investable lessons that entails in a new therapeutic area. However, luckily for Biogen they also have a 50% share of Lecanemab, so have been able to pass on these learnings to Eisai, their partner.

[tratante] 21/9/2022 09:58

I agree entirely, this is an excellent growth story with lots of potential. Not selling any of mine!

[ga_dti] 21/9/2022 09:26

Latest CEO interview discussing highlights from the first half, growth, new appointments and opportunities in new therapeutic areas -

[40 fathoms] 21/9/2022 00:59

There is nothing to be worried about with the profit fall, firstly we are are making significant investment in to sales/support/development infrastructure and R&D. Secondly, on an accounting basis we are hovering (as planned) at just above breakeven, but the headlines I saw used the percentage decrease in profits to dramatic effect. However, the size of the fall in profits YoY is a bit more mundane, we are talking about @GBP 65,000 fall... this is the equivalent to one middle ranking hire or perhaps they had some guests at the office and decided to turn the kettle on.

The key metrics for this business, at this stage are, size and growth of contracted backlog, gross profit and changes in net cash levels.

@cerrito - The significant bulk of the trade payables is deferred income so it is the difference between the cash received from customers and revenue that has not yet been recognised. From memory the software component is the biggest distorting factor and this consists mainly of licences which are billed in full up front but are only recognised over the life of the licence or on a consumption basis (i.e the licence is say for 500 assessments and the revenue is only recognised as those assessments are administered ). The distortion between cash recived and recognition in the services/hardware segments is much less as these are invoiced/recognised at a point in time or against a specific project milestones.

[cerrito] 20/9/2022 21:32

A rather taciturn statement and too bad no IMC type event.
I can understand why the prices drifted down due to decreased profits following the increase in admin expenses.
I need to go to the AR to remind myself what the nature of their trade payables are.
As they say they say they have a stable shareholder base. Only 3 change of holdings RNS in the last 12 months and they have all involved Michael Buxton.
One noteworthy feature of their balance sheet is its liquidity ie 95% of total assets are either cash or trade receivables, which given their customer base are I imagine high quality.
Given that last year 60% of sales were in the US, they presumably have good currency tailwinds and I note this is not mentioned in the Interims
No intention of selling given positive commercial outlook and strong cash flow but feel I have enough for the moment
PS
Have read the note from joint broker Dowgate Capital. I have hardly run into them and do not know the quality of their work. FWIW they maintain their TP at 220p. I see that they have 2022 revenues at £11.7m and Gross Profit at £9.4m which suggest H2 figures of £5.9m and £4.7m respectively ie a small increase on H1.

[tratante] 20/9/2022 12:43

Judging by the share price reaction it seems the punters don't like the fall in profit.

[40 fathoms] 20/9/2022 07:35

Interim Results just out, strong revenue growth, strong increase in contracted order backlog, strong investment in corporate infrasturuture and R&D and Strong Outlook for more of the same. Lots to like.

[johnwise] 20/9/2022 07:33

The Company has no Debt.. Continued growth in cash balances to GBP8.6 million at 30 June 2022 (31 December 2021: GBP6.8 million)

20/09/2022 7:00am

UK Regulatory (RNS & others)

RNS Number : 8974Z

Cambridge Cognition Holdings PLC Interim Results

The Company followed its strong performance in 2021 with a 31% growth in revenues to GBP5.9million in the first half of 2022 (H1 2021: GBP4.5 million). Order intake was in line with the Board's expectations at GBP7.2 million, up 44% on a like-for-like basis on H1 2021 (H1 2021:GBP8.6 million, including GBP3.6 million of one-off orders) and the Company has a growing, qualified pipeline of opportunities for the second half of 2022.

The contracted order book was GBP18.6 million at 30 June 2022 increasing from GBP17.1m at 31 December 2021. The order book provides the Company with visibility over future revenues and provides a solid foundation from which the Company can continue to invest in product and commercial development to further expand the business.

[tratante] 13/9/2022 18:41

@40Fathoms, excellent points well made! Thanks for an informative post. Plenty of opportunity for both companies to expand.

[40 fathoms] 13/9/2022 02:09

@tratante - While Cambridge Cognition has the most sensitive measures in AD it is not the digital test market leader, that is Cogstate which is listed in Australia. Nevertheless, there is still very significant growth in the AD market for COG, especially with their new voice product and some of the multimodal work they are doing which is absolutely at the leading edge.

The point I wanted to make is that less than 20% of COGs revenue and even less of its contracted back log comes from dementia trials. COG covers the whole CNS spectrum and outside of AD it is by far the (digital) market leader. This is important because the research dollars spent on these other conditions in total, is many, many times that spent on Alzheimer's. Think Attention Deficit Disorders, OCD, stroke, TBI, Autisum, Epilepsy,MS,Sleep Disorders, Depression, Schizophrenia, Parkinson's, Huntingdon's, PTSD, addiction issues, Cognition as a safety endpoint in non CNS drugs .... the list goes on.

But your point remains, the ability to be able to objectively and repeatidly test various aspects of cognition away from a test centre and without a rater present is a fast growing niche with a huge moat and only Cambridge Cognition and Cogstate have validated and viable digital products. At this point these two are only competing against, traditional pencil and paper tests and are capturing significantly less than 10% of the trial opportunities available to them. Within 10 years all clinical trial related cognitive test will be digital.

The last point in order not to make this post too long, CNS trials are often very long in duration (as you are usually looking at change overtime) and require large numbers of participants in order to be properly powered. At this point neither COG nor CGS are working on many Phase III trials. As Phase I and II trails progress some will move to Phase III and this is where the mega sized contracts are. Last year Cogstate signed a Phase III AD contract worth @US$15.5 million over 4 years.

[hydrus] 12/9/2022 15:51

There were 60 employees as per annual report at end of 2021 and now there are 17 jobs listed on their website. That suggests huge confidence in there being an acceleration in growth I guess.

[tratante] 01/9/2022 16:38

And you have to agree with him. If there is an area that will continue to grow it's research into dementia. This is a great little company with an exciting niche pretty much all to itself! Flying below the radar of most.

[fegger] 01/9/2022 10:03

Paul Scott has commented on COG this morning that 'probably the share that causes me least anxiety to hold, because it has no relationship with consumer demand, or the economic cycle'

[40 fathoms] 01/9/2022 07:08

The contracts keep coming and this is a very decent sized one with a repeat customer !

"Cambridge Cognition wins £2.2 million neurodegenerative disease trial

Cambridge Cognition Holdings Plc (AIM: COG), which develops and markets digital solutions to assess brain health, is pleased to announce that it has won a £2.2 million contract providing cognitive assessments and electronic diaries for a neurodegenerative disease trial. Revenue from the contract is expected over the next two financial years. This is a follow-on sale from a £2.1 million contract announced by the Company on 2 February 2022 with the same customer."

[40 fathoms] 24/8/2022 01:02

The link above is to a youtube video of a panel discussion hosted at Helix 22 focused on innovation in precision diagnostics. The video is very interseting but I have linked in to start where Jenny Barnett, CEO of Monument Therapeutics and former longtime CSO at Cambridge Cognition introduces herself.

For investors that don't know Monument It provides a very neat overview of what they are looking to do. As a reminder Cambridge Cognition holds an @30% stake and its technology underpins the Monument Therapeutics biomarkers, for which they will receive a double digit toppling royalty on any commercialisation.

Also worth noting from the Monument Therapeutics website a couple of new developments, they are now also in clinical validation with digital biomarkers for Autisum and Post COVID Cognitive Impairment.

For refenrence the value of the Monument Therapeutics stake is on the Cambridge Cognition book at @50k.

[waldron] 17/8/2022 09:18

Jai Singh

08:06 Wed 17 Aug 2022



Cambridge Cognition Holdings PLC (AIM:COG) said it was selected by the University of Oxford as a cognitive assessment partner for a clinical trial testing the use of a diabetes drug in reducing the risk of Alzheimer's dementia.

The company, which develops and markets solutions to assess brain health, will provide the university with cognitive assessments for the Impact of Semaglutide in Amyloid Positivity (ISAP) study.

The trail will investigate the effectiveness of oral semaglutide, a diabetes medication, against the neuropathophysiology of Alzheimer's disease (specifically, tau accumulation and neuroinflammation).

Amyloid positivity is the existence of a beta-amyloid in the brain which increases the clinical likelihood of Alzheimer’s.

According to a statement, Cambridge Cognitions expects to receive validation for its voice-based solution used to deliver cognitive tests, NeuroVocalix.

“We are particularly pleased to be including our voice solution, NeuroVocalix™, as we believe it could help track the earliest cognitive indicators of dementia and this study is an important step as we gather further validation data,” said chief executive Matthew Stork.

The ISAP study will determine whether semglutide can reduce tau pathology and neuroinflammation over the course of the year after animal studies suggested it could do so

It will focus on developing a treatment for the earliest signs of Alzheimer’s by using participants who are at an increased risk of developing dementia.

Any cognitive changes in participants will be measured with Cambridge Cognitions’ digital assessments CANTAB and NeuroVocalix at the start, week 26 and week 52 of the study.

More than 57.4mln people globally live with dementia, with that number expected to hit 152.8mln by 2050 without the introduction of a new medication.

Proactive

[40 fathoms] 17/8/2022 07:17

Matthew Stork, Chief Executive Officer of Cambridge Cognition, said:

"We are delighted to be partnering with the University of Oxford to develop better treatments for Alzheimer's disease. We are particularly pleased to be including our voice solution, NeuroVocalix™, as we believe it could help track the earliest cognitive indicators of dementia and this study is an important step as we gather further validation data. We have seen strong early uptake of NeuroVocalix™ following launch to the academic community last year and more than 20 institutions are using it."

Very strong collaboration partner as they continue to validate NeuroVocalix and very encouraging to see that it is already in use with many academic institutions bodes well for the commercial potential.

[40 fathoms] 28/7/2022 15:41

It has taken a few hours for the importance of todays announcement to sink in. Firstly the research agreement with the DOD is for an exploratory endpoint. The RNS points to this being an endpoint that will act like a biomarker and stratify the patient population.

"Cambridge Cognition has been selected as a cognitive assessment provider for the project because CANTABTM offers accurate measurement of the potentially distinct pathophysiological processes involved in PTSD."

The Stop Signal Task (SST) measures Response Inhibition. The neural activity associated with response inhibition might act as a predictive biomarker of Trauma focused cognitive behavioral therapy (TF-CBT) response for PTSD symptoms. They might be trying to delineate the role of biomarkers to predict remission of subtypes of PTSD.

If this proves effective this would/could result in a relatively quick roll out by the department of defence and would set the company up for broader commercial applications.

[40 fathoms] 28/7/2022 08:06

Very happy to see us pick up a research contract with US Department of Defense. Yet another area new area where it seems CANTAB has value.

[disc0dave45] 22/7/2022 15:26

Thanks Tom, see where you are coming from now.
By the way cash has only increased £1.8m for H1 and profit is down £80k.
Do you know contract payment phasing for this FY, nope, do you know termination clauses, nope.
Still shy on hitting consensus for this FY IMO.
All the best
Ps I do okay thanks but still learning and love condescension, not :)

[74tom] 22/7/2022 14:29

Yep, you are completely missing it. You will find investing very hard if you don't understand the difference between absolute and relative numbers.

Profit going from £10k to £2k is completely irrelevant. It's £8k.

Cash going from £4.2m to £8.6m in 12 months is extremely relevant, that £4.4m.

£4,400,000 / £8000 = 550x larger.

It's absolute basics...

[disc0dave45] 22/7/2022 13:44

Thanks Tom.
Cash had only gone up 26% though and pat has reduced five fold, so still don’t see how year end profit will be anywhere near last year. H1 eps is only 0.06p, believe consensus forecast is 1.79p for the year, how will earnings increase 27 times when cash (orders in hand) has only increased 26% and H1 revenue +31%?.
Sorry only just taking a look at the company so more research to do, but at the moment I’m clearly missing it!.

[40 fathoms] 22/7/2022 12:51

You are spot on the increase in cash is the leading indicator of future accounting profitability. For conformation of this you can look at the evolution of cash vs profit over the last few years at Cogstate.

[paulypilot] 22/7/2022 12:40

I think COG gets about 20% of contract value on signing.