Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 16/3/2023 11:27

Against that NAV ex Peterson should still be north of £5

[loglorry1] 16/3/2023 11:26

Are they forced into FV accounting? Why would you do it as it might lead to tax bill on claims where you have not been paid?

[williamcooper104] 16/3/2023 11:26

Agree - think it's somewhere in between Move to full FV likely to write up NAV against only making an adjustment on a case event but it's likely to be total mess of volatility and difficulty to reconcile to cash such that I wouldn't be surprised it results are presented on both a FV and cash basis Of course on a move to full FV I can't see Peterson staying at the carrying value (take all the points about a claim not being a sov debt but we all know that in the current market if you were to sell a claim on Argentina it would go at a massive haircut) - so perhaps a big negative adjustment there outweighs positive write ups on other assets and indeed the focus on cash is setting up for a disappointment on P&L (not for me I've long since abandoned idea that it should be P/E valued)

[return_of_the_apeman] 16/3/2023 11:25

Would be nice to see some director buying at this level :-)

[djderry] 16/3/2023 11:25

Amusing to see the bears out in force.In due course you'll be off to make 50p elsewhere.The results were excellent but the update is phenomenal,beyond any expectations.Except,for the company's probabilistic modeling which has proven to be ( although not exact) extremely accurate.Massive wins in huge cases.The industry leader.The industry leader in the funds business in legal finance.Who cares,make your unfounded self-serving claims and move on.

[maddox] 16/3/2023 11:17

Not really surprizing the reaction to an evening update with no prior notification - usually this would indicate some negative news sneaked out after the market close. Not ideal trying to work through the announcement in the pub!

However, we finally have some really good news - both on 2022 settlements/cash receipts and 3 early case wins in 2023 - and further prospects for 30+ trial dates in 2023 [so far to-date]. So, 2023 is looking like it could be a bumper harvest after a couple of fallow years.

Fair Value Presentation: If, as stated, the new approach relies on their probabilistic modelling of in-flight cases - then IMHO on balance - the likelihood is that we'll see a jump in fair value put through the P/L. My rationale is that the previous approach was very conservative such that the final case settlement value achieved was typically significantly ahead of the (fair value) carrying value in the B/S. If the new approach takes a more realistic view of the ultimate achievable settlement and discounts it back based on progress towards case conclusion we should see higher fair value figures taken through the P/L.

Many commentators will not like this one bit - 'opportunity to manipulate the figures etc, etc.' but this will be sanctioned/mandated by the SEC.

So, should be interesting.

[chester9] 16/3/2023 11:17

Good to see the day trippers visit the seaside

[bbmsionlypostafter mk2] 16/3/2023 11:15

Confidence is fragile, potential disaster lurks around the corner.

This has the feel of being on a knife edge to me. One bit of bad news, one more iffy accounting disclosure, one more shorter piping up & you could see 100-150p wiped off the share price instantly.

[bjfanc] 16/3/2023 10:41

Burford know, how to scare and panick people. Need to work on communicating.

[muzmanoz] 16/3/2023 10:29

Just listened to the call from last night. Burford seem robust in the rebuttal of the concerns raised by the analysts. The question raised by Portia Patel of Canaccord is at 33 minutes in.

Dosen't believe they risk covenant breach
SEC and bonds nothing happens if go past 30 April audited fs requirment date just have to fix the issue
Bonds have at least 2 more months to fix it and likely more time
SEC have more time than that
Not an investigation but ongpoimg dialogue with SEC about best way to apply US GAAP to asset class. Listed under IFRS and transferred to US GAAP and these are the first statements under GAAP.

[williamcooper104] 16/3/2023 10:28

I stoped out at 5.90 against a stop loss of 6.02 Bought back in at 5.24

[bjfanc] 16/3/2023 10:28

You can listen to last night's call.

[loglorry1] 16/3/2023 10:06

Dumped mine for a quick profit. I think the call will probably help to calm nerves later though.

[reddirish] 16/3/2023 09:38

I've been concerned about the lack of communication on the 2022 results for a while, and feared that something like this would have greated any iffy news when it did emerge. But I still believe the company is worth far more than it's current market value with or without YPF, so added another tranche this morning at £5.10. The meltdown will in part have been pushed by stop loss sales (sorry, DJ) and it all probably means that it will be another 6 months or more before there is any form of recovery. I've no worries about this being a fraud (otherwise they would have just stayed on AIM); while bank covenants related to balance sheet fair values should not be an issue, as the funding is primarily bond based. But I'll listen in to the presentation this morning and see where the analyst questions take that ..

[williamcooper104] 16/3/2023 09:36

There's tangible net worth covenants on the bonds Should be plenty of headroom but haven't looked in a while

[time_traveller] 16/3/2023 09:35

Yes, 2pm today I think.

[zipstuck] 16/3/2023 09:31

Valuations depend on Petersen if that goes pear shaped what happens to the bonds

[aishah] 16/3/2023 09:30

@Laughton, how much did you pay for BUR2?
HL are quoting £92-£95.5

[bulltradept] 16/3/2023 09:28

Looks like mr market is getting it now.

[dagoberia] 16/3/2023 09:27

What i dont get is, they state that there was an investor call about these results yesterday evening? An an other one today

[laughton] 16/3/2023 09:24

Took opportunity to pick up some more BUR2 bonds for YTM of over 11.5%.

Beats money in the bank, by some margin.

[74tom] 16/3/2023 09:19

Yep, it appears a significant overreaction given the share price was already in the toilet... it's not like it was trading at the £14 it opened on the day of the MW attack. I took a few at 503p, happy to add further if the price wants to go lower than that.

[time_traveller] 16/3/2023 09:18

I took Bogart's response at face value, and really expected to be in the blue today. I mean, there's two ways to interpret the presentation - one is positive, and one assumes he's being outright deceitful (the markets take) - as a respected lawyer saying what he said, I'm going with the former. Topped up at 511.

[compo62] 16/3/2023 09:15

Obviously the timing wasn't great with the markets already totally spooked, but this share price has to be nuts, surely?! I will be having a little topup.