Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[74tom] 16/3/2023 09:19

Yep, it appears a significant overreaction given the share price was already in the toilet... it's not like it was trading at the £14 it opened on the day of the MW attack. I took a few at 503p, happy to add further if the price wants to go lower than that.

[time_traveller] 16/3/2023 09:18

I took Bogart's response at face value, and really expected to be in the blue today. I mean, there's two ways to interpret the presentation - one is positive, and one assumes he's being outright deceitful (the markets take) - as a respected lawyer saying what he said, I'm going with the former. Topped up at 511.

[compo62] 16/3/2023 09:15

Obviously the timing wasn't great with the markets already totally spooked, but this share price has to be nuts, surely?! I will be having a little topup.

[williamcooper104] 16/3/2023 09:11

Move to fair value and write down of Peterson perhaps

[kuk1doh] 16/3/2023 09:10

No doubt the 2pm webcast speech is being rewritten to address the market reaction to the delay in producing accounts and the risk opposite the SEC and Bond holders.

I thought Bogart addressed this on the call last night… optimistic that they have an agreement with the SEC on how to account for “work in progress”, expects a favourable revision of accounts (naturally, as assets increase if you are going from event based fair value assessment to discounted future value) and the risk statement was required but he didn’t think it was a matter to be concerned about on either the SEC or bond holder front.

This is where trust comes in to play… and over the years I have found that the Bogart/Molot version of events tends to hold true over time.

Not confident enough to top up, though… as we may not have the full picture

[trident5] 16/3/2023 09:08

"We are very pleased with the amount of time and attention the SEC staff has put into this effort, which has included accounting staff at the most senior levels of the SEC".

T polishing at its finest?

[bbmsionlypostafter mk2] 16/3/2023 09:06

So, was that Muddy Waters bloke correct?

[74tom] 16/3/2023 09:05

Plenty of reading between the lines to do here...


"For some time, we have been expanding our data science capabilities and undertaking probabilistic modeling of our portfolio, including as previously disclosed at our 2021 Investor Event. As we do so, we continue to consider the possibility that over time our modeling may form a part of our valuation approach. For the last six months, we have been engaged with the staff of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") regarding the fair value of legal finance assets, including the acceptability of our historical valuation methodology under US GAAP. We are very pleased with the amount of time and attention the SEC staff has put into this effort, which has included accounting staff at the most senior levels of the SEC.


As a result, and with the benefit of those discussions and the ongoing expansion of our probabilistic modeling, we are engaged in modifications to our fair value approach. We are in the process of finalizing that approach, whereupon we will apply it to our capital provision assets and ask Ernst & Young LLP to audit it, with the completion of the audit driving the timetable for the publication of our audited financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2022. Because our revised approach is yet to be finalized, we cannot comment on its likely outcome, but our methodology will still rely heavily on objective adjudicative events as it does today.

While we would obviously have preferred this process to have occurred some months earlier so as not to disrupt the release of our audited annual financial statements, we are pleased with these developments, which should put to rest the years of investor discussion we have had about this issue. Burford is the industry leader, and it is only appropriate that we be the vehicle for the resolution of a valuation methodology - and given that US GAAP and IFRS are essentially identical when it comes to fair value principles, we would expect this methodology to be the industry standard. We look forward to providing further detail upon publication of our audited financial statements and our annual report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2022 (the "2022 Annual Report"), which we expect to be within the next 45-60 days following the date of this announcement."

[bulltradept] 16/3/2023 08:59

He who dares Rodney..

[catsick] 16/3/2023 08:58

Ultimately its a sound business with a 30% irr on invested funds, there is some accounting questions over how to value work in progress, its not fraud by any stretch of the imagination, from closed deals we can see the business works well , communication could be better....

[loglorry1] 16/3/2023 08:57

The fund has returned quite a lot of cash as cases settle and hasn't tapped all the draw down. I don't think they are bent or else they would not behave like that. It's not great to restate accounts though!

[tradertrev] 16/3/2023 08:56

small top up at 508p. Apparently one of their staff once walked past a branch of Silicon Valley Bank. So scary!

[donald pond] 16/3/2023 08:55

Even if there are accounting issues, what could they be? Nobody questions the level of commitments, deployments or income. So the only issues I can see is how you account for work in progress and for cases that have settled but not been paid

[williamcooper104] 16/3/2023 08:52

Dear oh dear - like the trading update was a piece of Muddy Waters research

[catsick] 16/3/2023 08:49

Wow what a train wreck, I am catching the falling knife here at 500

[williamcooper104] 16/3/2023 08:44

Praise the Lord for stop losses Even ones that slip

[trident5] 16/3/2023 08:37

Quite - they've admitted (1) they don't know their figures and (2) don't know if they can deliver figures on time. What a state of affairs.

[ali47fish] 16/3/2023 08:37

sec investigating whom

[williamcooper104] 16/3/2023 08:36

And we've a £4 handle

[loglorry1] 16/3/2023 08:34

The drop is about restating accounts after moving to fair value accounting.

I bought a few for a punt. FV accounting should be ok but not sure.

[williamcooper104] 16/3/2023 08:27

I got stopped out at well below my stop level

[chester9] 16/3/2023 08:26

It looks like a punishment beating on trust from London for the way the results came out. See more at 9:30