Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[winsome] 21/8/2019 10:18

Buffetteer. You are right. No evidence has been given by the bear raiders as to exaggerated write ups or write downs. Just part of all the innuendo. E&Y explain to a degree how they monitor this in the annual reports. Although nothing is ever fool proof. For me, cash doesn't lie and cash receipts have been far outstripping revenue last few years, suggesting that previous write ups are now converting to cash.

A lot of the FY18 $100m cash received in excess of revenue I assume was credited to last few years' worth of unrealised gains. If they were accounting as IMF Bentham do then there is the argument that this year's PAT would be higher as all the cash receipts would apply to FY18 rather than some accounting for previous year's profits. And could be the same for FY19 as a lot of cash will be credited to FY17/18 profits.

If they chose to switch to IMF B's accounting model for the US listing it could suddenly show FY19 PAT take a huge leap.

[winsome] 21/8/2019 10:06

Already filtered Tourettes boy. suggest others do the same.

[roddyb] 21/8/2019 09:44

Hey Chimers hows that ad agency you were ramping last year? What’s it called... Be Heard/follow-the-heard? You know, the one that is tanking like a Sherman?

[luckymouse] 21/8/2019 09:23

brownie6921 Aug '19 - 08:58 - 11850 of 11852 (Filtered)

[3dwd] 21/8/2019 09:18

I suspect that's possible ..re pe

[yidarmytom] 21/8/2019 09:18

If Chimers stock picking is so great I think I should offer him a job at Shareprophets
Worst Regards
Tom

[brownie69] 21/8/2019 08:58

DjDerry, just filter the idiots like Chimers and Lucy Mouse.

I dont mind a sensible short case debate based on reality but my principle point remains, When good businesses get attacked the shorters can create real opportunities to buy in at Value for money. Id say this is underpinned by a Private Equity bid now as well. No smoking gun been found etc but as ever DYOR on that.

A few weeks ago i could not have dreamed of having a holding here with an average price of close to 800p.

[chimers] 21/8/2019 08:36

You guys do realise that EVERYTHING I posted is 100% FACT and can be backed up and supported by my many many posts on the threads pertaining to the stocks I either bought or shorted.
All the posts are there they go back years and years and you can see all my buy and sell tips BEFORE the event. And you can see all the other posters trying to shout me down like you do and FAILING as you do.

Go and look, you might learn something.

Still only up 10% its a quiet start to the day, time for some Frosties their ........Aaaaaaaaaverage..which to you lot will be exciting..

[chimers] 21/8/2019 08:32

No, but the Wee mad mental fanny will!! he will be waiting for you in the lay by

[gettingrichslow] 21/8/2019 08:29

Well done Chimers! You’ve gained 10% already, that’s impressive, you’re really good at this!!
Can I be your friend?

[buffetteer] 21/8/2019 08:18

Thoughts regarding mark-up of cases. This seems to be the main area of contention .If cases were being marked-up aggressively to boost short term profitability then one would expect to see write-downs upon completion of cases when the fallacious profits never occurred . However , we don’t see that to any degree . I vaguely remember Bogart mentioned in the call that write -downs are either 0.2% or 2% of profits . This would suggest that prices are being marked pretty accurately / conservatively .After all , we know that cases complete , on average , in eighteen months ...and have done for many years so we know that concluded cases history for many years . I welcome anyone’s memory on that percentage write -down as I think it’s a vital number to confirm/not the accuracy of the mark-ups.

[tsmith2] 21/8/2019 08:09

Yes, which is a good thing

[mad foetus] 21/8/2019 08:07

BUR has fallen to 4th place in the IG most traded shares board, having been top for the last couple of weeks. Signs that short term volatility may be dying down?

[winsome] 21/8/2019 07:53

adnan17, I agree with you. BUR is a hold for now purely because of all the mud slinging. But my money is on them being bought over by PE as you also suggest. But probably at 30% premium to average price of last 6 months - I don't know - anywhere from 15 to 18 quid.

Most of Bur's interests (the funds) are already regulated by the SEC, being US based. So they are off to a head start re the US listing. But as I said, my money is on a PE buyout by end of Oct. That's assuming no serious mud that's being flung actually sticks.

[adnan17] 21/8/2019 07:09

Dgdg - great analysis

Henchard - Your analysis is wrong i am afraid. The process for US listing is already under way. They had already started the process. They hope to get the listing by Q1 2020. So going back to my analogy the car has already been dropped off. Up to the mechanic now to check out my car and provide me with a clean MOT by Q1 2020. First thing the mechanic might open is the boot. I have no way of knowing what they will check first.

[dgdg1] 21/8/2019 00:19

From the document which I think adnan found a few days ago under section 8 it says "In December 2011 and April 2013, Napo entered into a Forward Purchase Agreement(s) (together, the “Agreements”) with a third party (the “Purchaser”) to provide funding for Napo’s litigation activities with Salix and its arbitration with Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Limited. The terms of the Agreements included a return on funds advanced, depending upon the amount of time lapsed from the initial funding, in the event Napo was successful in any part of its litigation or arbitration." So if there was a success in ANY PART of the arbitration that would be enough to trigger a payout. In section 5 under "License Agreement with Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Limited" it says "In 2011, the parties entered into arbitration proceeding regarding clarification of certain terms as well as disputes over crofelemer development and commercialization activities referred to in the Glenmark Collaboration Agreement. The arbitration was settled in December 2013 (See Note 12)." So we see that part of the arbitration was about "clarification of certain terms", it wasn't just about the dispute over Glenmark not marketing crofelemer. And on the subject of the "clarification of certain terms" I have mentioned in an earlier post that Napo was successful in changing the terms of 4(e) to its advantage, in that it had removed the rights which Glenmark previously had to terminate Napo's exclusivity in the event of a cheaper competitibe product entering the market under certain conditions. Therefore it seems clear that Napo WAS succesful in at least part of the arbitration and therefore that would have triggered a payout to Burford. So everything seems fine in that respect.

[adnan17] 20/8/2019 22:00

djderry - the way I see it is as follows:

1. The share price will be volatile for the next few weeks, possibly even until November.

2. By the end of the year and definitely by Q1 2020 there will be a US listing, this should be share price supportive. And will dispel any myths about fraud as the US regulator will further investigate the accounts.

3. Burford will report fresh numbers by Q1 2020, where the auditors will go through it even more rigorously. This should also drum up support for the share price

4. We may even get an additional financial statement produced by the end of November to give further support to the share price

5. There may be a private equity bid in the range of £10-13. But I think the majority of investors would reject that. Given the valuation of the company particularly amongst sell side research analysts. But any PE bid would be supportive of the Share price.

6. I appreciate the naysayers will continue to scream fraud. But given the actions taken by the CEO of wanting to list in the US dispels the myth. why would you want further scrutiny if you had committed fraud? Hence dispels the myth of fraud. It is the equivalent of me hiding a body in my car boot and then taking it in for a MOT (makes zero sense).

7. So expect some volatility from now until early 2020. I've hardly looked at the share price this week. Was glued to it all of last week. But this week just ignored it as I'm a long term investor. Hence, will sell once I believe it is overvalued.

[fairbear] 20/8/2019 21:29

Chimers how clever being able to use language like that - you must feel really good.
Filtered from now

[tidy 2] 20/8/2019 21:26

hTTps://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/901137/burford-capital-shares-worth-more-than-double-current-levels-says-berenberg-901137.html