British American Tobacco Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 24/6/2019 10:36

San Francisco set to ban e-cigs

Jun. 24, 2019 3:28 AM ET


San Francisco is expected to become the first city in the U.S. to ban e-cigarettes this week, a move that will likely pit the city against one of its fastest-growing startups: Juul Labs (JUUL).

The ban won’t be permanent, however, and will ultimately depend on an FDA assessment on the health risks of e-cigarettes, which is likely begin in 2022 after manufacturers submit their products for a health review.

San Francisco's decision won't affect the sale of cigarettes, which will remain legal.

[p0pper] 24/6/2019 10:06

CC brave man, ex-divi is probably all thats holding this at at the minute

[creditcrunchies] 24/6/2019 09:47

ex-div on Wednesday so lower than here I'm adding more

[philanderer] 21/6/2019 13:34

BAT insists McLaren F1 deal continues amid Ferrari Winnow questions

[creditcrunchies] 20/6/2019 12:16

But the profits just keep rising these brokers are just useless at their job

[gabsterx] 18/6/2019 14:08

So same rate of decline as the past 20 years, nice.

[crossing_the_rubicon] 18/6/2019 13:58

UK Retail Cig Sales -4.4%

Bank of America Merrill Lynch says the industry results were likely impacted by growth of IQOS, My blu, JUUL and/or other vapor products which are not included in the data.

British American Tobacco (NYSE:BTI) saw no change. Imperial Brands (OTCQX:IMBBY
)and Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM) saw sales fall sharply.

[philanderer] 17/6/2019 19:22

MS note:

Analysts at Morgan Stanley downgraded industry giant British American Tobacco to 'underweight' on Monday, noting that, in its view, the threat of a "maximum nicotine policy" in the US had not been reflected in the group's share price.

Morgan Stanley said making the 'buy' case for British American was "easy", stating the firm represented a "structural growth story" suffering a temporary perception setback and labelled the group as "cheap", "unloved" and offering "a great long-term entry point."

However, MS believes the "high impact on future profits" stemming from a potential regulation change Stateside was not "fully understood or appropriately reflected" in BAT's share price.

"In our scenario analysis we take a conservative stance on new regulation, assuming regulation to reduce nicotine to non-addictive levels takes until 2035 to come into force. However, even in this scenario we estimate that BAT's US profits could be as much as 50% lower and ~13% of future value at risk to the ma

MS also highlighted that prior to acquiring Reynolds, BAT delivered a roughly 20% return on invested capital, generating £3.5bn of free cash flow, but post-acquisition, while the analysts estimate that ROIC had fallen to 7% and leverage had risen to around 4x in 2018, the business was set to generate £7bn of free cash.

"This company has consistently delivered 3-5% top-line growth, 5-8% profit growth and 8-12% EPS growth, putting it right in the top tier of the global Staples group, but the stock is on just 8.5x 2020e P/E with an ~11% FCF yield and an ~8% dividend yield."

In summary, MS felt the combined risks from regulatory change, disruption/investment requirements, changing consumer behaviour and high leverage gave it more than enough cause to turn "incrementally more bearish".

[philanderer] 17/6/2019 09:55

Downgrade..

++ MORGAN STANLEY CUTS BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO TO 'UNDERWEIGHT' ('EQUAL WEIGHT') - PRICE TARGET 2600 (2750) PENCE ++

[buywell2] 17/6/2019 09:32

Certainly looks like 2700 retest IMO coming

dyor

[andrewbaker] 14/6/2019 10:47

Sell in May etc., ethical investors, threatened governments' actions, overall smoking reduction (in Western countries, anyway) and ... you name it: BATS is unpopular. Yet, it pays a nice fairly well covered and reliable dividend four times a year, at a rate you won't find elsewhere with anything like the security, and has capital growth potential far above that of many other securities. You wanna buy a long term hold with a nice income, without too much risk? Look no further, IMHO.

[buywell2] 13/6/2019 16:50

Technically BATS no too good

Just had a refusal at jumping the 200ma

[crossing_the_rubicon] 13/6/2019 16:01

Dividend star British American Tobacco gets cheaper

The well covered payout is an invite to income seekers, but the shares are falling after this update.

This relatively upbeat first-half trading statement comes against what has been a torrid time of late for British American Tobacco (LSE:BATS).

[crossing_the_rubicon] 13/6/2019 14:38

”Altria surprises with U.S. cigarette price hike”

Wells Fargo analyst Bonnie Herzog says Philip Morris USA (NYSE:MO) took a "surprise" cigarette list price increase of $0.06 per pack or $3.00 per carton on Marlboro, Basic, B&H, B&H Menthol Green, Cambridge, Chesterfield Lark, Merit, Parliament, Player’s, Saratoga, Virginia Slims products. The price increase applies to shipments after June 16..



"BAT to follow suit in US perhaps?"

[creditcrunchies] 13/6/2019 08:50

actually you make a good point P0pper you've got countries going for Zero carbon by completely cutting oil consumption as close to zero as possible in the next 20 to 30 years yet their shares are close to record highs. At the same time people will still be smoking tobacco.

[creditcrunchies] 13/6/2019 08:23

just think if they weren't meeting their increases in revenues YoY which is what IMB and BATS have been doing, BATS revenue was £13.9 Billion in 2014 it is on track to hit £25.2 Billion in 2019 with net profit 2.3 x 2014 levels at £7.2 Billion. The market decides it's a sell you have to laff. It's like an insurance company that says because you've been a careful driver all of your life, no points no claims you are deemed high risk so we've upped your premiums because you are due a claim

[isaanview] 13/6/2019 06:50

Market makers protecting their book.

[isaanview] 13/6/2019 06:50

Buy on the rumour sell on the news.

[gabsterx] 13/6/2019 06:16

- Volumes down 4%
- Revenue up 3%
- Profit up 5%
- NGP Sales up 126%, analyst target was 127%
- Stock crashes by 6%

Every BATS/IMB update for the past year.

[muffster] 12/6/2019 18:16

Hi All, this is an interesting future play on e cigarettes I think. CNBC ran a program last night with the company.This looks to be above book Value ps, which on stockopedia is just 2853.Wonder if it tests it?

[philanderer] 12/6/2019 17:30

Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Nick Hyett said falling cigarette volumes are an inevitable fact of the tobacco industry and BAT has been able to offset the decline through a combination of shifting smokers onto higher margin products and hiking prices.

However, Hyett highlighted that one of the most potent threats to BAT emanates from increased regulatory scrutiny on the tobacco industry from the US Food & Drug Administration.

"The acquisition of Reynolds gave BAT a dominant position in US menthol. That's a segment that's been in regulators sights for some time - thanks to its perceived status as a gateway for new smokers. The FDA are now considering banning them altogether. While many menthol smokers would likely move over to non-menthol products, it would still be a major blow," Hyett noted.

Alliance News.

[philanderer] 12/6/2019 16:52

The FTSE 100’s decline was being led by British American Tobacco PLC (LON:BATS), 3% lower at 2,987.5p as the cigarette maker said global industry volume was expected to be down around 3.5%, versus previous guidance of 3%.

proactiveinvestors.co.uk