British American Tobacco Share Discussion Threads

[tgkg] 03/4/2019 12:56

Hi. Is this correction, would price carry on dropping?

[18bells] 03/4/2019 08:34

Thanks gary!

[p0pper] 03/4/2019 08:33

Question is if Brexit talks improve and the £ keeps rising will this fall to fill the £29 ish gap it's had 2 attempts at breaking £32 and failed, double top?

[philanderer] 03/4/2019 08:28

£ up / BATS down ... bride's nightie this week ;-)

[gary hindsight] 03/4/2019 08:16

Don't think not was a correction one was for the 2016 allotment and one for the 2019 allotment

[stepone68] 03/4/2019 08:14

Looks like a correction has been issued

[gary hindsight] 03/4/2019 08:13

It's not the sale price it's the deemed purchase price when they were allotted to him. You see that was the 2016 scheme vesting after 3 years typically and was the price then

[18bells] 03/4/2019 08:04

Is that last rns incorrect? States shared were sold at £40 each!!! Did i miss that?????

[philanderer] 02/4/2019 12:10

Flip of yesterday - £ falling

[philanderer] 01/4/2019 11:16

Cigs out of favour this morning :-S

[wbecki] 29/3/2019 00:21

@Micha14

I'm a PM fan - not PMi
ie Altria. Not Philip Morris Ex USA

Also a fan of BAT, but wanted US exposure to cronos/AB Inbev,some Tilray and incidentals....

[micha14] 28/3/2019 22:48

@Wbecki hi! Good post. PMI is a great investment no doubt, they have spent over 5bln USD on iqos development, its a terrific stock, but We dont agree with your colleague Leyland assesment. BAT does not have a weak balance sheet at all, it has a strong one which has strengthened in 2018. The latest 10K and results demonstrated the artistic mastery that BATs management demonstrated in reynlds aquisition. Unlike most aquisitions, this one went well, synergies were achieved and are showing in the EBIT. Leyland is also overexaggerating the US risk exposure. Yes, there is a lot,its 38.1 percent to be exact, however, if history has taught us anything it is that the harder the government tries to stop a tobacco business, the better it does! Why?? Because governments are incompetent and private enteprise is competent. Just look at BAT 2018 results!!!! Tough year in regulation saw BAT come out of the gate storming and winning! BAT is a buy at 32£ still.

[philanderer] 28/3/2019 19:01

McLaren is running the branding of British American Tobacco’s e-cigarette product Vype for the first time at the Bahrain Grand Prix.

[philanderer] 28/3/2019 09:36

Tobacco stocks Imperial Brands and British American Tobacco were leading the FTSE 100 higher early Thursday following upgrades from Citigroup.

Imperial rose 2.2% while BAT gained 2.1% after Citigroup raised both stocks to Buy from Neutral.

Alliance News

[dmore2] 27/3/2019 21:27

The FDA is rowing back on menthol, and talking more about regulation of "next" generation as it's seen as a gateway, rather than an alternative. In my opinion tobacco companies top heavy with vapes could get caught out.

[minerve 2] 27/3/2019 15:50

You can't argue with that to be fair.

Good post WBecki.

[wbecki] 27/3/2019 15:41

Snippet on tobacco

"US Tobacco Looks More Interesting
There’s a similar argument on tobacco companies. Many fund managers have argued the likes of British American Tobacco (BATS) and Imperial Brands (IMB) are now too cheap to ignore, despite regulatory worries.

But Leyland owns Philip Morris (PM) in the US, a position he has been topping up, instead. One reason for favouring the US giant is its portfolio of reduced-risk products being superior to Imperial. But the main reason is because both the UK names have “very weak balance sheets because of deals they’ve done in the US recently”.

Allied to that, both BATS and IMB now have an “over-reliance on the US”. As a result, their regulatory risk is very much centred around the US Food & Drug Administration, which is the authority that is clamping down the hardest.

“That’s one of the reasons they appear to be very cheap,” says Leyland. “One of our priorities when you come to a sector like tobacco, given the amount of country-specific regulatory risk, is diversification. BATS’ consolidation of Lorillard and Reynolds undermined the investment case there a bit.”"

[creditcrunchies] 26/3/2019 19:35

I've looked into this a bit more it's the average of the broker forecasts because BATS is a large company there are 21 brokers.

Recommendation: Strong Sell Sell Hold Buy Strong Buy
No. of Analysts: 2 1 5 7 7

Average target price is £34.70
Estimated net profit for 2020 is £7.76 Billion, actual it says was £6.03 Billion net profit for 2018. Which if true for 2020 equates to double the net profit of 2013 when the share price was £32 back in 2013, where £3.9 Billion net profits were reported. If this wasn't a tobacco company the share price would be over £60 even so £40 is reasonable target on these huge revenues

[creditcrunchies] 26/3/2019 14:17

It's on stockopedia on their projected estimated revenues which I'd imagine comes from their brokers

[micha14] 23/3/2019 20:08

Frankly Scott Gottlieb can put up or shut up. Hot off the press is the BAT annual report, landed on my desk. Dividend up 4pc, cash conversion up to 113pc, operating profit 4pc up, revenue up. 5.5bln paid to reduce long term debt. The Reynolds acquisition is making a lot of economic sense. I am holding on to these for dear G*d. cannot buy more as 20pc of the fund is in them.

Credit crunches- where did you read re projected net profit of 2020? thanks

[karateboy] 21/3/2019 21:41

Well ex divi date turned up to be a none event after all as share price recovered. This implies share price has a long way to go. May be £40 is coming sooner than we think.

[creditcrunchies] 21/3/2019 19:39

Forward PE of 10, forward dividend yield an enormous 6.6% and this bit is the deal changer projected net profits for 2020 expected 25% higher than 2018 on guidance