Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[investographer] 16/1/2021 08:22

Although BOTB historically attracts mainly men with its spot the ball game, women do participate more in the lifestyle competitions.I have suggested to them that they are missing out on 50% of the population.By the way, just downloaded their new app, which they have been working on for a couple of years.If they go international- they are laughing.

[studentinvestor13] 15/1/2021 23:39

On a £ basis it is because they have increased the number of competitions they are running to include a Midweek car competition, and the value of tickets for expensive cars has been falling so more people I think are winning more expensive cars now, which is a good thing. Right now I can play for a Lambo Urus, a Huracan, a Bentley GT Conti. Go back a few years and we are talking about tiers lower cars. Accompanying ash prizes are normally transferred within 24 hours once paperwork is signed so there is no payment delay on that

[studentinvestor13] 15/1/2021 22:53

Payables are because many of the cars won are individually specced by the winners this means they can can have many month lead times before Botb has to shell out. Brand new supercars can have many month wait times. Their working capital cycle benefits in hyper growth phase. It's a wonderful business model. I think valuing this on eps eliminates this timing benefit and is a purer method but it is still far far far too cheap.

If anyone wants any insights into the game and how much loyalty and community there is in BOTB just ask. I cannot add value on stocks like Keller and Lloyds, but I can here!!!!!! HAPPY WEEKEND and roll on buyers wanting in next week!

[feverfan] 15/1/2021 22:46

We talk about being cheap on a PE basis...has anyone done the calcs on a free cash flow basis? It’s even more ridiculously cheap? Someone can check my maths but if I assume flat cash flow (feels unlikely, but let’s be pessimistic?). They did £8.242m net cash from operating activities less £112k financing = £8.13m FCF. 9.45m shares, gives 86p FCF (even more flattering than the 59p earnings!). So double that to give a full year figure...172p FCF....versus share price 2300 (to take into account spread) - that’s a FCF yield of 7.5%... or a FCF ratio of 13.4x....am I missing something here or is this completely bonkers cheap still?

Now...their payables has crept up again...likely a factor of the tax increase they have to pay...not sure if any of this will unwind or the payables will just keep growing. I noticed they reduced their receivables by almost 300k (anyone know what the receivables actually are given a ticket is paid on the spot? Gift vouchers perhaps?). So they’re getting a huge cash flow benefit by growing their payables balance but perhaps this continues. I also note they upped their working cash amount from £4m I think previously, to £7m now...presumably to cover this £4m of payables they now have...so sounds like they expect this to keep growing. Either way, I’m not selling at this price, and will be annoyed with anything less than £40 now on a takeout as I think this has huge room to grow. And best of all, we will know in less than 6 months what this years earnings are and will start to look forward to next year - so they’re cheap based on current year, I dare not look beyond this year. If I wasn’t maxed out on my portfolio limit I’d be buying more!

[studentinvestor13] 15/1/2021 22:37

VALUATION

> Momentum continued post period end. If players are like me they will enjoy playing which is good news for repeat custom.

> I expect 130p to 140p of EPS and over 200p of EPS next year. This year I think they are only on 17x PE. That is DIRT cheap for a fast growing market leader that has hardly tapped its addressable market. I think it's really on 11x next years earnings!

> BOTB will become a global business. I have no doubt about it. It is a high margin 100% ONLINE business. BOTB is on a path to £100m in revenue apace.

Being a player of the game, holding BOTB shares is a zero brainer decision to me and it is about considering just how high BOTB can go. In all my stock trading career this is maybe the only time I have customer insight!

[peart] 15/1/2021 22:02

Probably currently trading on circa 15 times current year earnings to end April. Great value at this level for such amazing growth

[steptoes yard] 15/1/2021 12:09

I'm afraid this is what we come to expect from the IC who remain ball deep in rear view mirror analysis in a game where the alpha for an investor is forward looking at businesses misunderstood by the market. No attempt has been made to fulfil that journey and if they have then they haven't portrayed it at all well. So they have yet again failed as investors and also as journalists, quite an achievement in the circumstances.

This should come as no surprise, no one who works there or writes for them is particularly bright. The mr bearbull article looks like a Trojan Horse megaphone for communism, anyone who followed that would have jumped from the high rise long since. They are incredibly UK centric which is remarkable when investing has global reach. I really wouldn't wipe my backside with it in case my excrement started picking holes in their analysis.

[jeff h] 15/1/2021 11:58

Yes the IC review disappointing Peart, cant remember them covering the company in recent years and then when they do the reviewer waffles on about airports.

Still he did touch on overseas expansion and exploiting the database information which was also mentioned in the Interims:-

"BOTB has built a substantial and valuable database, which not only supports its existing competitions, but also offers interesting opportunities for new products and strategic partnerships, which are currently under review."

...so maybe some potential new income streams to come.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 15/1/2021 08:11

£30 is fair IMO.
Botb is on a totally different earnings gradient now.

[peart] 15/1/2021 07:58

We're probably heading for £30 per share in short order. Good luck to all!

[peart] 15/1/2021 07:56

I reckon we're in for £1 a share minimum in dividends for this year - 4.5% min yield on current prices and with such growth. Fantastic!

[peart] 15/1/2021 07:42

I agree with you Jeff H re IC article.

I would add that it made me question IC's judgement - "But to someone who detests airports and is content to take the bus, this seems an unlikely success story, so, in the absence of broker coverage and a relative peer group, it is difficult to arrive at a meaningful valuation. Hold." What a load of nonsense, is my view of that comment.

What someone personally likes or doesn't like is irrelevant to whether a business is a success or not and BOTB's results speak for themselves. A valuation can be arrived at by looking at the growth and what are reasonable P/E's as a base, and what investors might be prepared to accept in addition to that for that growth. Consideration can be given to other web based company buyouts/similar types of businesses, etc, etc. There are other approaches too and several on this panel have arrived at their own valuations - I think currently those views are between £30 - £50 per share, but could easily be a lot higher. It's not rocket science and as such I view Mark Robinson's comment as somewhat inept. With all of IC's supposed expertise they cannot arrive at a valuation - I ask you?? Irrespective of a buyout or not with such growth I would say a current fair share price could easily be £26 - £33 per share as it stands, with no takeover and min earnings this year of £1.30 at a 20 - 25 p/e

I've read IC for years and they often don't get it right, which is perhaps to be expected (I know I don't always eg get a share purchase right!), but this has to be a humdinger of an error when, knowing something about BOTB, one reads this!!! I did question in my mind if the author had had a run in with BOTB management, hence such a negative conclusion - I have no knowledge of this but that is what I thought when I read the closing part of the article. I was simply shocked at how wrong his view appeared to me.

(I've often questioned my regular purchase of IC, and this poor article made me question it again! A few more like this and I'll probably cancel it!!)

[jeff h] 14/1/2021 23:21

Rather bland article from the IC with a Hold rec:-



...but does raise an interesting question:-

"...but future ancillary revenue streams could flow once it works out the best way to monetise the mass of personal data it has accumulated over the past 20-years..."

Yes the database can possibly be monitised, I recall ex-listed company DM Group selling info from its databases and a gambling giant interested in taking it over.

[topvest] 14/1/2021 21:41

Well done to those here. Its definitely a missed opportunity for me. One word sums up their results...wow!

[2breakout] 14/1/2021 20:46

A bid now would have to be £30 minimum? Performing without a bid anyway so needs to be a real knockout. Would have thought details will be soon.

[peart] 14/1/2021 18:17

Not bad is it, Ryanc106 and Investographer!!

[peart] 14/1/2021 18:14

BOOM!

Well, as regulars on this board will recall I had expected that we might be closer to £1 per share this year with fwd eps of £1.50. I think I was thankfully wrong with that!! Min £1.30 - maybe max £1.60 for this year, with fwd eps for AT LEAST £2 per share for next year starting 1.5.21 - maybe all of these, particularly fwd, estimates are conservative....
Let's face it on expected eps of 70p for this year one would have expected back in May 2020 of 30P'ish at the half way stage, with late 30'ish for the second half - Our company (if you own the shares) is going gangbusters - with washers shy of 60p at the half way stage - FANTASTIC!! Management will only be interested in £50 per share PLUS, in my view, for a company sale. With such growth and new opportunities arising for further growth, why sell for less than 25 times fwd eps and I don't think that £2 for next year is way out of line, in fact, it might be light. I think if anyone is really interested they better come up with the cash fast or again the expectation from management will simply move higher. Maybe we'll be looking at £2.50 eps for next year - I wouldn't bet against it, in light of these results.
Personally, I'm not interested in anything less than £50/share. If the growth rates keep going gangbusters, as they have for a while now, the valuation/multiple just gets higher.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 14/1/2021 17:03

I'm not surprised at the final price of the day.
Those results are an investors dream.

[hotaimstocks] 14/1/2021 14:56

this was 16p 2013 ... hopefully bid will be done at the 35/40 pound level ... I would wait for £10 lol

[hotaimstocks] 14/1/2021 14:51

this was 16p 2013