Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[shanklin] 12/2/2021 14:00

LOL Ryan,

I now have a similar number of shares, but suspect you paid a lot less for yours

[ryanc106] 12/2/2021 13:53

Haha that would be brilliant mate.
I have 6500 shares so would need at least £3/4 p/s dividend for me to consider that. My outgoings are low but not that low.

[investographer] 12/2/2021 13:31

TBH, Im not that fussed about he share price, as this is a hold forever share for me (Paul Scott said this before he sold out).All Im interested in is the dividend & special dividends. At this rate of growth, I can see me retiring on the dividend income in three years time.

[jlstocks] 12/2/2021 12:29

Doesn’t sound unreasonable. You’d have to think £30 any day soon based on what we know/can solidly predict is a given. If that’s true, is it reasonable for value to expand by 75-100% to get to those levels? Again, little to think growth phase has ended - if anything, comments have always sounded prudent on marketing side “increasing confidence in approach” etc. Seems little evidence they are trying to squeeze every penny/maxing advertising, so feels like there’s growth there to be taken over time. Seemed strange seeing talk of £100+ / share in the not too distant future... but, really, that doesn’t need beyond-believable growth. Combine that with operational gearing for what I feel is a really well run operation...

[ryanc106] 12/2/2021 11:34

Price target JL? Mine 6-12 month target is £50-60

[jlstocks] 12/2/2021 10:23

Some good thoughts on here. One thing I’m pretty confident of, is that I’m going to make the value of winning the Dream Car competition buy holding on to my shares...and that, at some point, will mean mortgage free retirement :-)

[ryanc106] 12/2/2021 10:03

Well said Peart.

And indeed, we do have v similar view points on BOTB.

[peart] 12/2/2021 06:27

Something can always go wrong - there are no guarantees in this game, but if the business continues to boom and fwd earnings look great come a couple of months time, then the market will respond and this share price should go up. I think it's a question of when not if, risk wise. And most risk is to the upside. I would definitely not want to short this stock - no way. I expected 40p ish 1st half and we got 60p, I reckon the 2nd half will be circa 90p and even that may be light (all as stated before), as the 1st half was such a positive shock. I think £50 per share is very realistic and as said it's a question of when not if, so long as the current trends continue. As usual Ryanc106, we have similar views on this company!

If, as I've guesstimated, we earn £1.50/share this year with say a fwd £3.00 per share, representing 100% growth on top of 300% growth the prior year then £50 per share is by no way expensive. Say 40 times fwd earnings of £3.00 - £120 would be pretty pricey, in my view. (But if at £120 the fwd earnings were say £6/share and it was say January - a few months before the year end, I would not view that price as expensive). I also question my fwd guesstimate of £3.00 per share. If we grow by 300%, and we are still a small company, in a year is 100% growth whilst amazing still possibly a bit light. There does come a point where such growth figures are impossible, but BOTB is still very small - hence my point.

Moving forward, I would not be surprised, if the shares do rocket up over this year, if the Directors authorise a say 10 for 1 share split. Not that this will add any value to someone's holding but it would increase liquidity by bringing the price down per share and increasing the float. There are not many shares on the UK exchanges trading in the 70's or 80 pounds per share.

The other thing worthy of consideration is this business is a web based technology company, with tremendous growth. As the company grows and starts to appear on more people's radar, with increased awareness, the stock price may rise as people are prepared, as such, to pay more for it. Tech type mega growth companies tend to trade on a higher multiple due to great growth forecasted going into the future, but I don't feel that BOTB is getting the benefit of this position currently.

Somebody posted here a week or two ago that they didn't want to post too many of their positive views, I think, as they didn't want to appear as if they were ramping, which I assume means to try to force the price up with manipulation. I found that interesting and thought "fair enough". I just want to be clear here that my comments, whilst they have some wishful thinking, are totally genuine, are my own thoughts and considerations and I have no interest in ramping, but only discussing and highlighting my genuine opinions on this exciting business. There is no guarantee with this game (The Stock Market), but I do firmly believe that if a company performs very well and grows its earnings handsomely, then in time the market will reward patient stock holders with a higher share price. BOTB is probably going to grow by about 300% this year eps wise and I can only view that as extremely positive and exciting!

[ryanc106] 11/2/2021 17:08

I believe they will too Investographer.

In fact, something has to go seriously wrong for it not to get to £40-50 in the very near future imo.

That can always happen of course but I think we're on a roll here and it's only just the beginning.

[investographer] 11/2/2021 16:32

Yes, had a few gos on the iPhone, very easy, fast & clean.They have only done a soft launch so far, but a full launch is imminent. Once the App has been properly launched, revenues will rocket even further.

[ryanc106] 11/2/2021 16:20

New app is fantastic imo. Anyone else had a go?

I may be overconfident but I see no reason why we shouldn't be at £50 per share within 6 months

[shanklin] 10/2/2021 12:51

In 2020, when they were "ahead of market guidance", it was on 17-Mar. In 2019, when they were fractionally ahead of expectations, it was after year end on 02-May.

No idea what will happen this year given the FSP means FinnCap have been unable to issue forecasts following the H1 results.

[ryanc106] 10/2/2021 11:56

When is the trading update next month?

[peart] 09/2/2021 19:17

Long term if the earnings keep growing the share price will take care of itself. Short term, who knows. "Short term the market is a voting machine, long term it's a weighing machine", is not a bad statement....

[peart] 09/2/2021 17:16

Ryanc106 - Maybe by next months trading update, that might nudge us up into the £30's.... Circa 20 times this years earnings which will be as good as in the bag by the trading update, is cheap for circa 300% growth. If fwd EPS were announced at say £3.00 per share for next year due to start 1.5.21, surely the shares would move up over, however the FSP might not allow fwd EPS to be announced....

[ryanc106] 09/2/2021 16:53

I wonder when we'll break out of this range into the £30's? Seems all very quiet at the moment.

[3ootuk] 07/2/2021 09:07

Do people even watch the National Lottery results? A bit like the football pools, just falling by the wayside with autonomous buys.

BOTB are at least interactive in that you are directed back to your entry to see how close you were, and then encouraged to have another go.
I think there's a more realistic chance of winning a discounted entry on BOTB than getting 3 numbers on the lottery.
OK, you won't win millions, but psychologically there's a feeling you "win" more often based on your own skill.

How many pixels are in the various target circles? That gives some sort of odds of winning.

[peart] 07/2/2021 07:57

A friend of mine saw an advert on TV by BOTB several days ago. He said he was "flicking" and didn't catch which channel it was, but he guessed Dave. I was playing a puzzle game on my phone last night and several BOTB adverts came up after each of several games. I've not seen that before or heard about TV ads before, so that tells me that BOTB are upping the game again. If these ads are successful and drive new business then as I've touched on before maybe BOTB is going through a time of exponential growth (Maybe we'll get a very pleasant and surprising 2nd half??). If that's the case, it won't last forever as no business can continue with growth like that indefinitely, but we could be in for a very pleasant ride for several years maybe, before things plateau to more sustainable levels of growth from a much larger business base. BOTB is a minnow, but could it grow into a mainstream business that is known nationally, under the national lottery in size, but in that sort of vein?? Maybe. People like nice cars and they certainly like cash and the cash prizes are getting very impressive.

If I'm late to the party and other panel members have seen this advertising for months, apologies, but it was new to me and I found it interesting - hence the post to share it with others.

[serratia] 05/2/2021 18:11

Shanklin,

Admin costs were rising slightly each year with last year at £6.3m. H1 this year was £7.1m so year end will be well up on last year. Part of the admin will be fixed eg wages but marketing costs will vary and H1 reflects the big push when bidders were interested.

[ryanc106] 05/2/2021 16:44

Good analysis Shanklin, We're on pretty much the same page with out assumptions

[peart] 05/2/2021 12:38

Interesting Shanklin.

On the basis of your figures to get to my guesstimate of 90p for the 2nd half we would have to have sales of circa £27.5m. We went from about 14 to 22 million, in the first half (year on year). So a jump from 22 for the 1st half to 27.5 for the 2nd half doesn't sound too crazy to me.

We're all guessing and only time is going to tell. No one on this panel suggested 60p for the first half, in advance, unless I'm mistaken. I felt I was in the more bullish camp suggesting early 40's for the first half and this was wildly light.

It's certainly going to be an interesting set of results when we get them in June.

[shanklin] 05/2/2021 12:27

Gross margin in H1 was 62.8% (13882k/22088kx100)
With admin costs of 7083k, PBT was £6800k.
Profit after tax (PAT) at 17.5% (why this low?), was 5612k, equating to 59.84p EPS.

If we assume Admin costs are fixed (they seem to be increasing slowly), and gross margin can be maintained, each additional 1m of sales beyond £22.1m, equates to 628k of additional pre-tax profit.

At 19% tax (the norm), this equates to an additional 508.68k of PAT

Assuming the same number of shares in issue, this equates to circa 5.42p EPS change.

So a 1m increase/decrease in H2 sales vs H1 (simplistically) results in a circa 5.4p change in EPS versus H1.

Others wiser than me can pick the above to pieces and perhaps take a more analytic view as to possible H2 sales. Beyond that, the question is whether we can extrapolate significant sales growth beyond the current FY. The operational gearing in both directions is very significant.

[peart] 05/2/2021 12:26

Unless of course the directors decide to reinvest surplus cash in a new venture. They have a lot of skin in the game, so one would hope that if they did that they were pretty confident of success as they won't be playing mainly with other peoples money, as is often the case.

[peart] 05/2/2021 12:10

The first half was such a positive shock, our 60p div estimate for the 2nd special might be a bit light, who knows, but it could be closer to £1 if history repeats. Last year 37p was paid out and the EPS was circa the same at 37.51p

[peart] 05/2/2021 12:05

Good for you Ryanc106 - enjoy that red wine!

I agree on 60p plus. I've said repeatedly I think £1.50 for the full year must be on the cards, due to the explosive growth of the 1st half - it's not just going to plateau and "only" do another 60p eps for the 2nd half, that wouldn't make sense. Hence my 90p guesstimate. In light of that 60P would be a minimum.