Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[stan marsh] 02/1/2021 15:42

Just updated my model ahead of the numbers and I reckon about 44p (although quite where the cost line is is hard to say). That would put them on course for 114p for the year, so about 13x, or 11.5x ex-cash. Not expensive, especially if they do receive any reasonable bid.

[peart] 31/12/2020 16:25

Happy New Year to all the regular posters on this board!

[housemartin2] 28/12/2020 16:59

Inve !stographer - especially now that they have spent months trawling through all the detail !

[investographer] 22/12/2020 21:19

I know they have not replicated it.What I said was that any suitor could say to BOTB, take x amount now, because the model is pretty easy to replicate for us or anybody else in the future.

[ccraig69] 22/12/2020 19:21

They have not replicated it. If that is the case they would have walked away imho

[investographer] 22/12/2020 18:41

It is obvious that a price can not be agreed upon. I assume the suitors are saying that this model can be replicated pretty easily. Hindmarch has to weigh this up.Difficult, especially since the company has only just started to rapidly grow.

[investographer] 22/12/2020 18:38

Great post Peart.You are totally correct in that they could have announced earnings/ Interims by now, although last one was Jan 30th. It is for 6 months ended 31st October.I had just assumed it was for calendar year end.Surely William Hindmarch has let them know this. The suitors now have a limited time to put in offers, because once those earnings, EPS figures are out, this could get beyond their reach.

[peart] 22/12/2020 18:00

Just repeating myself, but in the past at the November announcement BOTB always gave a date for the interims, but oddly this year they haven't. Is that something to do with the FSP? I suspect it is because what else has changed. Maybe to give management a bit more control over proceedings that may or may not arise, they decide to hold back on the date with what we all on this panel and with what management have stated are going to be fabulous interims. I suspect we will see 40p plus per share and a nice interim dividend (special or otherwise) of 30p minimum. Maybe they are holding back as the normal dividend paid in February, might be a deal breaker when it comes to horse trading on a final price - thus delaying the date of the announcement for as long as they can gives management another tool in the box as it were. That's my suspicion. Personally, I wouldn't go down that route if I were manager. I would make my announcements, pay my dividend, and keep moving forward with the job in the confidence that we had a great business. If people want it they have to stump up the cash - simple. However, I appreciate that that's easier said than done though, as if someone were dangling a big cheque in front of your nose - upset them and it goes back into their pocket!
Another thought is that they are delaying the announcement of a date for the interims as they are itching to get the earnings out early. However, I would have thought that they could have had these out already if they were that keen to do so, so I'm not so sure that's the picture. All interesting stuff though!

[pireric] 22/12/2020 14:56

Not so much a reluctance on behalf of Finncap, but an inability. Finncap is the broker, Nomad and Rule 3 adviser, so I imagine (not 100% certain) they are strictly prohibited on writing anything about BOTB that is not plainly factual, which means no forecasts until this FSP is ended, one way or another.

I find it unlikely that the FSP in any circumstances could stretch on too much beyond the interims, which are probably due within a month or so from now.

For perspective, the half year results last year were revenues of £7.60m and EPS of 12.40p. The growth rates are going to look enormous and FSP or no FSP, that will excite the market.

Eric

[steptoes yard] 22/12/2020 14:47

Joining the Dots

I am interested in this notion that FinnCap may have been reluctant to update the market on any revised guidance in the same way they have in the past. Leon highlighted this as a possibility in his interview uploaded a few posts back. The reason he gave, which is of course just an opinion and no advice intended, may be due to any positive news having an upward impact on the share price which may in turn affect the appetite of any buyer.

In response to that, I say this. There will come a time (and it isn't far away) when the company will have to announce RESULTS to the market no matter what. In the absence of guidance which may ordinarily (outside of FSP) have occurred there is room for a surprise. Whilst I'm stating the bleeding obvious here, it is possible that a number of buyers in the last seven sessions have worked it out for themselves.

Put another way, people should only be selling if they no longer believe in the operating model.

I see an apex created by the absence of Finn Cap guidance raises which means that if a buyer really wants the company they now have a limited time to act....or pay more after the results.

[investographer] 22/12/2020 11:31

Some interesting buying today....

[investographer] 21/12/2020 19:14

So he sold some & has recently been buying back!

[tomps2] 21/12/2020 09:39

Leon Boros mentions BOTB in his piworld round up interview here, biggest contributor to his 2020 performance, and still holding for 2021:

Video:

Podcast:

[investographer] 19/12/2020 18:32

I can not believe the FSP has run into the seventh month now. They would have known a reasonable target price from the off straight away. I did tell Rupert Garton this in no uncertain terms. He wasn't impressed!Anyway, have had some superb dividends here, being my largest holding.

[pireric] 19/12/2020 09:48

To the contrary, I have bought in again recently. Bid or no bid, they should be on track for at least 70p of earnings this year and quite easily that could extend to at least 100p in the next fiscal year given operational gearing. That would underpin a very good year for the stock next year.

BOTB would not be trading where it is today if they hadnt commenced the FSP. It has been a distraction for investors and has caused some to get irritated by lack of progress. I could easily argue that the upside for investors may be greater outside an FSP solution than under one (given acquirers rarely want to pay a very high premium on face value). But the founders here own a lot of the stock so it is a question of whether they want an exit now or are happy to run the story for a few more years.

Either way, valuation stacks up very well, I think. Interims in January will be stellar and that's the fallback.

P.S. hotaimstocks and Jackson83 are possibly the same person, based on close alignment of stocks on their posting history.

[jackson83] 19/12/2020 08:21

top up at 500p paul pilot scott sold out.

[hotaimstocks] 19/12/2020 05:00

BIG DROP EXPECTED SOON. ..
without a bid this will fall back to below £10 probably £7 ... can't see a buyer above that. risky holding now when this was trading 300p range 10 months ago. no certainty it will be sold.

[ryanc106] 15/12/2020 16:57

Hopefully... will put us out of our misery.

[mobtheplod] 15/12/2020 15:34

Big tick back up on no news, large volume - something in the air you reckon?

[solooiler] 14/12/2020 11:18

That is obviously wrong. People compulsively gamble on the lottery. However you are correct that there are not enough restrictions on the National Lottery itself which is an issue I have taken up countless times with my local MP.

I hope for more regulation of the National Lottery to be introduced but I do not expect it.

I don't like gambling companies like Flutter, William hill.

These companies do very little for society other than enrich shareholders and provide entertainment for the wealthy and those who are sensible. That is into comparison to the damage they do to those who use these sites as a way to try and gamble out of poverty.

[clanger66] 14/12/2020 10:28

I don't agree with you here. I would imagine that any compulsive gambler wants instant gratification so the roll of a dice or a spin of a wheel is more appealing than buying x amount of tickets and then taking the time to use your skill to work out where you believe the ball is. Then waiting up to a week to see if you've won or not.There's no regulation on the sale of lottery tickets that I'm aware of so why should a game of skill be regulated?If you're daft enough to spend that amount of money on tickets then you should accept the consequences of your actions.

[solooiler] 14/12/2020 08:09

I have checked this morning and I can buy £471 of tickets for just one competition.

This needs to be regulated by the government plain and simple.

it is £555 before a volume discount to make it look like more tickets gets you a better deal.

[grabster] 12/12/2020 17:49

I stopped buying BOTB tickets once I saw the explanation of how the near misses were dealt with. However I don't imagine that the vast majority of their clients care about that, and I expect them to continue playing regardless. I have re-started buying the shares and will likely add a few more if current prices allow.