Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[investographer] 14/1/2021 13:34

Paul Scott very bullish on Stockopedia My opinion - my only regret is not holding onto more of my shares.I can't see any reason to sell, and based on these stellar numbers, it is tempting to throw caution to the wind, and buy some more. It's so difficult to find stock though.

[investographer] 14/1/2021 13:03

The last two interims were on 30th Jan 2020 & 30th Jan 2019, so they did sneak them out earlier than usual.

[ccraig69] 14/1/2021 12:56

glad I was inefficient on the share buyback and forgot to fill out the form

[ryanc106] 14/1/2021 12:54

BOTB would be a cracking acquisition for $PENN Gaming in the US.

I hold both :)

[davidosh] 14/1/2021 12:49

Firstly.....I do not think FinnCap are able to issue forecasts or broker notes whilst the company are in a bid situation. It is one of those situations where the Takeover Code and restrictions apply to what can be said and who can be spoken to.

Secondly these interims are not out early...the half year was to October so most companies get their unaudited H1 results out within 2.5 months.

Finally.....this is very illiquid stock so expect anything to move the price up and down significantly but on small volume. Patience is a virtue as they say and the spread is wide so personally I am relaxing and very happy the company are doing so well. Another one that gets better in lockdown as folk have little to do and time to dream of winning a supercar

[feverfan] 14/1/2021 12:44

Finncap cannot update their forecasts while FSP is ongoing, they aren’t allowed. So this will not happen until they end the FSP.

I feel a strategic partnership is now more likely with potentially a company taking an equity stake in the biz from the founders, with a view to global growth. It’ll be hard for them to crack global on their own, they are tiny. Their expertise however would be highly desirable and I believe this is where the next leg of growth will come from.

Indeed, the results appear earlier than they could have been, I was caught completely off guard! Perhaps to bring the FSP to a close and show why they weren’t willing to accept £20 offers - I don’t see why they’d go near an offer below £30 now as that would be a ridiculously low valuation based on base case 120p EPS, ie no earnings momentum...but they’ve said there is revenue momentum still...so I’m now pencilling 140p in.

I think a full takeover however is too expensive now unless a PE has cash to splash (still an option) based on the earnings.

I fear regulatory threat still but struggle to quantify what impact this will have. Certainly the market will be terrified if anything is announced that implies regulation, but I think I will hold through if it does as I believe they are responsible already.

I agree with comments about easy to replicate, but, so long as BOTB keep raising the prizes the barriers to entry go up and up. Their brand is strong and trusted by hundreds of thousands of customers. They’re giving away 50k cash with every dream car prize now! Think of the capital burn it would take even for a big online player with existing customer book - they’d have to offer better prizes and cheaper tickets - so for me, whilst the barrier to entry may be low, shown by the number of awfully dodgy looking competitions running now on FB, the actual barrier to successful execution is higher - and with each growth in players and brand strength I think their moat gets bigger. The beauty also is that you can win with just one ticket. It’s not like a lottery where the more players there are the lower your chances are. You improve your odds by buying more tickets, but you can still win with one ticket, whether they have 1m entrants or 2m.

Have a look at their margins and see the value of the operational gearing - all of their margins were up...lovely! :)

Amazing results though, very happy holder.

[mighunter] 14/1/2021 12:27

Standing by to be corrected, but finnCap are BOTBs Rule 3 adviser, so I think their hands are tied with regards to any public domain broker notes or upgrades?

[mammyoko] 14/1/2021 12:18

Bidders now priced out on fundamentals of the business model (risk of replication and longevity). Early announcement of results without an associated offer is, surely, a clear sign that the FSP is now over? I could see this being announced fairly soon. The price will then revert to a multiple of forecast earnings without any bid premium. I would guess earnings for FY21 would be at least 120p and, more likely 140p. On that basis, I would imagine FinnCap forecasting 175p for FY22. At some point in the year, assuming no market collapse, I can easily see a multiple of 20x meaning a share price of at least £30 is pretty plausible. In the meantime, I could see profit-taking pushing the price down to £18 until FinnnCap comes out with its revised forecasts.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 14/1/2021 12:12

Wont be long before upgrades come in.
Whole new ball park.

[investographer] 14/1/2021 12:11

Strange that Finncap have not released an upgrade today.Caught on the hop me thinks

[jlstocks] 14/1/2021 12:02

What’s a realistic (fair, but not overly bullish) PE?. 60p EPS in 6 months, difficult to believe that won’t be even higher for H2, perhaps looking at £1.40 for the year?

Hard to believe this won’t be closer to £30 at June’s prelims.

An FSP bid at £30 doesn’t feel like it would be generous - or have I missed something?

[investographer] 14/1/2021 11:29

The bidders had 7 months to put in a bid. Looks like @BOTB_Dreamcars got fed up of waiting & released these results early. Usually release at end of January.I doubt if these will now go for less than £30 a share.

[idriveajag] 14/1/2021 09:53

Absolutely phenominal revenues growth.

[investographer] 14/1/2021 09:49

Yes he did flag it up saying it was a hold forever Share heading for 40 to 50 quid. After the rise, then says he sold most, which was a bit naughty, saying he would add when it was cheaper. Sentiment then dropped with this illiquid share.His plan backfired a bit : (

[studentinvestor13] 14/1/2021 09:45

Great business that can continue to gallop. Will be a £100m turnover international platform play before long at this rate making £30-40m profits. Naysayers will complain about this like they have since forever😜

[shanklin] 14/1/2021 09:40

Well said davidosh

Should have bought years ago but did so on that dip below £12.00. Shame it was not in more size as its still my smallest SIPP position... ...but certainly a very decent 40 days holding them.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 14/1/2021 09:37

Well done holders here.
Very well deserved.
BOTB have basically just announced a step change in the business prospects.
A very different beast to what it was yesterday. New share price very easily justified IMO.
Bought in today at £20.75
Onward and upward from here 😎👍

[davidosh] 14/1/2021 09:21

I think it is a bit harsh to say 'Well done others who held & were not scared off by the likes of Paul Scott'

Paul flagged up BOTB very positively for a long time and has been one of their best supporters and customers. He made his own decision when the potential bid came about and probably had others companies he wanted to back from their lows. We are all responsible for our own decisions and to do the research needed. This board has been great so not knocking anyone but just that was unfair.

I think the share price here was an absolute steal and win/win at the fall to below £12 and went public with that in one of the Mello shows. At some point I do hope to get William along for a presentation or interview. This potential bid needs to be out of the way or giving us £30 a share now so we can get back to proper engagement.

Just out of interest do we know if there is a similar competition for supercars on the continent or in the US. Totally accept laws on gaming can be different and risky trying to build the same business in another jurisdiction but just wondering about expansion opportunities overseas?

[investographer] 14/1/2021 09:17

This should go international now. Why not take on the US with baseball & American football?

[studentinvestor13] 14/1/2021 08:51

1 word. Boom. 150 pence eps next year? Why not on 25 times that with a big international market to go after. This could make 200 pence earnings for all I know. 3750p target now

Special dividend on top. Fantastic

The margin they will make on a returning customer will be almost 100% :-)

[bookbroker] 14/1/2021 08:46

Money for old rope running these raffles online, with a bit of marketing spend and advertising in the right channels any gaming company could crack this market.Highly cash generative with minimal overheads, surprised not more entrants to this market!.

[ryanc106] 14/1/2021 08:40

Sparkling results.

Those kind of LFL increases are from fantasy novels.

Glad I stayed patient with these and didn’t sell any when we were in the doldrums over the past few months

[investographer] 14/1/2021 08:38

The best trading update I have ever seen! And my largest holding. Well done others who held & were not scared off by the likes of Paul ScottEPS of 60p. Yearly forecast is 70p.Whooping special dividend of 40p per share too