Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[peart] 02/2/2021 11:55

As stated before my estimate is for a minimum of 60p as a second special dividend in July, if all tracks as it appears to be and if management follow previous year's payouts. Maybe more, or maybe the Directors will find a better use for the cash and there will be no special 2nd payment for this year. We'll know for sure in June!

[serratia] 02/2/2021 11:04

Dividends,

BOTB don't need to hold a lot of cash for various reasons. If you go back over time you can calculate the end of half/year cash holding/share.
Excluding the latest figures over the last 5 half years they held around 20p/share as cash with 3 results at 21p. The last half year they had 96p before the 40p special which will come off in the next results.
They will be generating cash in H2 probably pushing the cash/share over 150p. In the past they have paid 2 special dividends in a year so there is quite a bit of scope for another special at results time.

[serratia] 02/2/2021 10:46

Martin,

To be more specific I track the growth in marketing which of course leads to revenue etc. This can be worked down to EPS. I don't want to put a figure in public for a couple of reasons. Firstly we're only half way through the half and things can change before the year end.Secondly I don't want to be dragged into comments re ramping/deramping. Thirdly I will probably be adding to my holding.
Not being too vague in H1 the revenue was £22.088m and they've said growth going well so £25m should be in sight for H2. There's some interesting figures re dividends which I'll also post as it can be deduced from their accounts.

[shanklin] 01/2/2021 18:55

Serratia

Thank you for sharing the above.

Are you happy to share the rate of growth you believe BOTB seek to achieve?

Presumably there is a rate of advertising that gives an optimum ROCE and that is what they seek to achieve?

Thank you, Martin

[serratia] 01/2/2021 18:11

I track various things on a daily basis. Pulling it all together it gives an accurate view of the revenue.
Over time I get a picture of the growth rate they look to obtain. I can extrapolate this to results time. At present as of yesterday we are half way through H2 so things can change either way before the year end.
The first month of H2 they were bang on the apparent target. On Dec 1st they eased back a bit and the month fell by 24% bringing the growth rate back to 86% of target. Jan 1st they set it off again with the month being 42% over target putting the average at 7% up.
As stated in their update H2 is growing ok.

[peart] 01/2/2021 16:29

Agreed re Serratia comments. It seems that since the interims the company has upped the ante again and is up higher than August last year. Maybe the budget jumped in light of higher profits. Or is it lockdown related....

[this tea tastes of chicken] 01/2/2021 16:06

The August numbers appear to correlate with some comments made by Serratia on this thread a few months ago when using his metrics he took the view that they had dialled up the ante in the summer probably in a bid to demonstrate to any buyers what the co was capable of

[shanklin] 01/2/2021 16:02

Jeff H

Thank you for your reply.

I see what you mean re August 2020.

I think I should have meant additional spend due to newly recruited customers, but that's not what I wrote!

Interesting re the Satellite TV ads.

Kind Regards, Martin

[jeff h] 01/2/2021 15:56

I have come across several BOTB ads on satellite tv channels in the last few weeks Shanklin so maybe January is a month the company has chosen to up its marketing spend.

If you look at the traffic website figures for August on the below link that Investographer has previously posted, that also correlates with a high month for new Insty/FB followers/likes. Whether that also coincided with a marketing campaign I am not sure though some think marketing spend was upped after the FSP announcement in June.



January figures will be published soon and I suspect that will show increased traffic in part due to lockdown.

I am not sure when you mention incremental increase in spend if you are referring to an individual player upping his individual spend (buying more tickets due to bigger prizes, entering more than 1 competition a week etc) or overall sales increasing due to more people playing the games (new customers)

The company itself mentions new customers gleaned from its marketing activities:-

"We continued to invest confidently to attract new customers to our increased range of competitions and content, through a wide array of digital marketing channels, as well as TV, Radio, Print and PR. Encouraging revenue growth has been delivered by an enlarged in-house marketing team, deploying constantly updated, dynamic and creative content at a granular level across all channels. This has also delivered increasingly efficient customer acquisition metrics."

[shanklin] 01/2/2021 14:51

Jeff,

Do you think the additional followers in any given month are correlated to monthly marketing spend, and then onwardly correlated to the INCREMENTAL INCREASE in spend on BOTB competitions?

Thoughts welcome, TIA.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 01/2/2021 13:19

Nice Jeff.
Keep it coming!

[housemartin2] 31/1/2021 15:24

Anyone have any views/insights on how the reforms of the 2005 Gambling Act may pan out for this company ? According to weekend press I have seen, it seems the view is stronger control on advertising in sports (a la tobacco). I would imagine that a good look at online advertising would be likely but I cannot see how this could work in real life. Adverts would just be hosted on non-UK platforms.

[investographer] 31/1/2021 15:01

The interims stated that they did a soft launch for iPhone, do not think the android app has launched yet.I have played on the iPhone app, very easy to use.They are poised to launch- that will be a real game changer wrt revenues.They have done remarkably well with just web sales thus far.

[this tea tastes of chicken] 31/1/2021 13:18

Just picking up on Student Investors posts shortly after the last results. In view of what he has said about BOTB having 0.2% of UK market and a chance to get to 2 or 3% of UK market, is it fair to say that there is a greater chance of securing more in the UK market than incurring a lot of costs trying to break overseas? TIA.

[peart] 31/1/2021 06:25

Investographer - Is the App available for an iphone and are you referring to the Android App?

[peart] 30/1/2021 08:25

Another nice dividend in the bag come Thursday 4th next week. The stock barely flinched when it went ex div on 21.1.21.

[3ootuk] 28/1/2021 22:40

I see BetFred are moving in on Lottoland by offering bets on international lotteries.
Low hanging fruit, but taken a long time for them to assemble a team to get the offer going for fixed odds.

[ryanc106] 26/1/2021 21:59

Will certainly be an interesting ride Peart!
No one is having my shares!

[peart] 26/1/2021 21:11

Oddly enough the IC article has been edited, for the better, over what was published initially. Most of us on this panel are more bullish than this article, but the author's last sentence where he questions if the model is readily replicable or if BOTB enjoys a distinct advantage over any potential competitors is fair enough. No one knows for sure what the future holds, but even if a decent competitor arrives BOTB is off to a flying start and I feel they would have to work very hard to catch them. BOTB is a company that is doing very well, but stock market wise is still very much a minnow, with plenty of potential growth ahead.

The good news is, with its first IC coverage, the company will become better known to new potential investors. I wouldn't be surprised if that hold recommendation changes to a buy after more company announcements. By then it's share price will probably be north of £30. We'll see!

[investographer] 25/1/2021 21:38

#BOTB piece on p41 this week's IC interesting. Talks about how Online move has opened up to so many more Punters than previous physical outlets. Potential for Overseas expansion and to monetize more than 20 years of Customer Data.

[studentinvestor13] 25/1/2021 16:57

long long way to go. Watch when these boys bang out 200p of eps next year and it's on a 30x multiple.

[shanklin] 25/1/2021 16:26

I agree its reasonable with what we know. Just incredibly difficult to reach any conclusion as to the company's growth path over the years to come. £30 could be somewhat over-priced or incredibly underpriced. Just impossible to tell currently IMHO.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 25/1/2021 16:08

Agree.
£30 per share is reasonable imo.