Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[ryanc106] 23/2/2021 14:57

Tried to buy more earlier but couldn't get filled :/

First tried to buy £40k worth then 30,20,10,5 but no luck.

Clearly indicates that LT holders are staying put and this pullback seems to be due to the IG margin decision.

[serratia] 23/2/2021 12:32

Simply Wall St has a fair value of £39.44.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 22/2/2021 21:48

[...]

A lot of decent and recent reviews here :)

^^^Google 'BOTB trip adviser'

[mammyoko] 22/2/2021 16:53

As I understand it, IG is ceasing trading in all the shares on that list. Which will suck liquidity out of those shares many of which were relatively illiquid anyway. Which could lead to wider spreads and smaller sizes from market-makers. Not a good day for liquidity in UK small caps when such a big name pulls out.

[grabster] 22/2/2021 16:36

There will be some holding BOTB (and the other named stocks) in both real shares and in margined IG positions. If they are having to choose between funding their IG account (to boost margin) by selling real shares, or closing their margined positions, I think a lot will close their IG positions rather than spoil their real holdings. Even if they have to close at a disadvantageous moment.

The only sbet I have with IG is luckily not on their hit list. (Yet!)

[ryanc106] 22/2/2021 16:21

Bought more!

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 22/2/2021 13:10

IMO it'll mean more people buy the equity to gain exposure.
I'm not sure but I don't think IG buy opposite positions in the market.

[pastybap] 22/2/2021 13:00

It's on the list of shares that IG are removing from their spreadbetting service. Up to 100% margin required by Friday, then all positions must be closed within 30 days. As it's very illiquid here, I would expect further weakness between now and when positions are automatically closed.

[jlstocks] 22/2/2021 12:47

Shares on sale again today... just added more to my portfolio.

[ryanc106] 22/2/2021 10:45

Me too Investographer.

[investographer] 21/2/2021 20:15

The dividend is all that I am interested in now : )

[peart] 21/2/2021 10:38

If the dividend track record continues, we might be in for £2.50+/share in dividends next year. By then if the share price was a lot higher than it is now it won't appear too fancy as in yield, but to long term holders it will be very nice indeed!

[ryanc106] 20/2/2021 21:08

They’ve really cracked the online marketing haven’t they!
Thats what makes them such a diamond imo

[serratia] 20/2/2021 20:16

Tea,

Where they impress me is the way they generate revenue without over paying to generate the revenue. I tracked another on line company in a different area. They're growing revenue but at way too high a cost. BOTB excel in this area.

[this tea tastes of chicken] 20/2/2021 20:00

Serratia, okay thank you for responding. [ Imagine having a ship you can steer like that..]

[serratia] 20/2/2021 19:50

Tea re 1006,

I track various things on a daily basis. I can see the advertising push and it backing off. I relate this via other angles to revenue generation. Over a long period of time they seem to have a growth target. They increase advertising and when growth in revenue goes past a set level they back off. It looks as though they have a set growth target in mind. The figures I quoted are a proxy for increasing/slowing revenue generation.
Over this half and others they drive it for a while then back off and if it undershoots switch it up again. Growth dropped down in Dec then doubled in Jan to bring it back to what looks like the target. They then backed down this month holding the half to date steady for the last 15 days.
During H1 they ramped things up above what had been their average I assume in relation to the bid interest.
The figures I posted are a proxy for revenue generation in the particular month. What I'm seeing is the revenue growing at a rate they seem to have chosen for the half.

[serratia] 20/2/2021 18:41

Prior to the H1 results I could track the forward revenue and my personal target was £20 - 25 based on my multiples. It jumped to £22.50 on H1 figures so even with massive growth it stayed at the historic multiple. It won't grow by 100% in H2 over H1 but will grow nicely. The present price of £27 reflects their comment re growing further and I'd look for mid 30's after H2 results.
I have no method/handle on market emotion so can't say whether it'll be given a higher rating or not. Just for me it's been growing well and for the last 5 halves it's been given the multiple I use even with 100% growth and bid interest in play.
Which ever way you look at it it's a hold/buy for further growth and the dividend.

[ryanc106] 20/2/2021 18:12

Imo all the traders hoping for a quick sale sold out When the price went back down to £11 ish. Where I backed up the truck again!
I don’t see any reason why the price would fall back as it’s currently so cheap on a forward earnings perspective.
Serratia - I th8nk we could all be in for a pleasant surprise about where 5his heads. You may think a multiple of 30 seems a lot vs historical multiples but they are operating and growing at new levels now. Tbh it wouldn’t surprise me if we can get up to a 40/50 multiple.
We shall see and it will be very interesting to see how it plays out.

[peart] 20/2/2021 17:25

I've just had a look at recent winners and their prizes going back a year or so. It used to be a mega car and possible £20000 cash - now it's a mega car and up to £70000 in cash as the norm (as I'm sure most regular posters are aware of). This will obviously create more demand and add to the current exponential effect we are enjoying. Exciting times ahead!

[peart] 20/2/2021 17:18

Agreed valustar1!

Anything is possible, but the risks very much appear to me to be to the upside with BOTB.

[valustar1] 20/2/2021 17:08

If the FSP is dead maybe Finncap would at the same time release updated forecasts.

That could offset any negative effect

[peart] 20/2/2021 17:05

I think some people would sell, mainly traders, but if it was backed up with a great growth story in fwd eps, I suspect it would be a temporary dip, if it were to fall, as quite simply the stock is not expensive at the moment. However, if the company announced the FSP is dead and fwd eps is going to be down on last year by say 20%, then I'd expect a sell off. I'd be very very surprised, if that were to happen though.
To me it's all about the earnings and if they are going up handsomely we will be fine, regardless of if the FSP fails.

[this tea tastes of chicken] 20/2/2021 17:00

question for serratia please in ref to post 1006, what is the thinking behind pushing between c1.7 and c2.9. By that I mean why the marketing push at some points and retrack back and then push again? Grateful for some colour on this, thank you in advance.
TTToC

[gadolinium64] 20/2/2021 16:58

Mammyoko refers to 'the inevitable share price weakness once the sales process is ended': what guess would anyone put on a percentage drop on such news - 10%? More? That's one thing that would make me a bit wary of adding at current levels.

[peart] 20/2/2021 16:57

The thing is earnings multiples that people are prepared to pay can fluctuate and are subjective. I'm sure you're right Serratia whereby for a few years the market has ascribed a price at around 23* operating cash flow, but I don't also think that Ryanc106 is wrong in suggesting a p/e of 30 times fwd earnings. The thing that has changed recently is the growth rate of the earnings that the company is producing, and this has gone up massively. This can often lead to a change in the multiple that investors are prepared to pay. Also, different successful businesses can have different earnings multiples applied to them. Look at Fevertree by example, a great business that has been growing nicely for many years but not massively year on year now, yet it trades on circa 45-50 times earnings - that to me is fully priced currently. Yes it's got a niche that it's doing very well in and perhaps it trades on a premium due to the possibility of been taken out by one of the big boys, ie Coca Cola, but I doubt it's going to grow by 50% or more per year from now, even with it's USA expansion.
BOTB could get to those sort of multiples in the future, particularly if say fwd eps for next year is handsomely higher - say £3.00 plus which would be circa 100% growth on top of circa 300% growth this year. Mind you in a bad market where sentiment is terrible and people are frightened, multiples can also fall to areas where stocks are almost scarily cheap - that's the other side of the coin!
All I can say is I don't think that 30* fwd earnings of (possibly and we'll have to see) £3.00 plus, equating to a share price of £90 is not that unreasonable. The shares would only be at the equivalent of £21 based upon last years earnings when 70p was forecasted - obviously we are going to be a lot higher than that, and if the fwd estimated (£3 plus) was advised it would represent the 3rd year of fabulous growth which has to help the multiple. The downside is if the multiple goes up the shares are not as cheap to buy as they are now....
I feel that the FSP is perhaps dead, and if this is confirmed along with a great fwd eps estimate by the company, I see no reason why the shares will not trade higher. We are currently on 18 times my earnings guesstimate for the year (£1.50 which is nearly there (30.4.21), and this is not expensive for 300% growth, on top of 110% the prior year. Maybe the FSP is still humming along nicely and if management feel they're getting close to the limit of where they can take this maybe they will sell out. I don't think either of these scenarios will materialise and I also don't think that a buyer would be prepared to pay what management would accept. Why sell if you can see huge rewards down the pipeline, regardless. Surely the time to sell, unless someone is prepared to cough up big time, is when you've had your huge growth years, are now doing a steady 10% per year and someone pays you 40 times next years earnings. It all feels too early in the growth story to me. Interesting business. We'll see.