Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[bookbroker] 14/1/2021 08:31

With the kind of spread I think not, once owned 30000 shares in this back in 2013, sold at around 70p, think even took a small loss. Things certainly changed since, but even two years ago could have still paid £2!

[solooiler] 14/1/2021 08:06

ferk me. I should have bought even if I dont like it. 25 x 120 = 3000p

[boros10] 14/1/2021 08:06

You got it but there's nothing to buy!

[babbler] 14/1/2021 08:02

Amazing figures this morning.

[valustar1] 14/1/2021 08:00

Probably correct!

[firtashia] 14/1/2021 07:59

Stunned silence on here. Everybody busy placing orders?

[investographer] 10/1/2021 17:07

Https://www.botb.com/about/investors/financial-calendar

[investographer] 10/1/2021 17:06

I believe it is a win/ win situation from here. Surely now the suitors will have been given an ultimatum. Put up or shut up. BOTB have stated on their Financial calendar that the results will be this month. The FSP can not go on forever. It has already dragged on for 7 months.I personally believe there will be a cracking update with FSP ending.I want to see this company go International!

[pireric] 10/1/2021 16:01

Sorry to hear that Investographer. They've always been courteous in the past with emails I/others have sent, and have treated minority shareholders well.

To illustrate the magnitude of uplift in the %s that BOTB are likely to report, look at H2 last year, and put it against H1 last year.

First half, £7.6m revenue, 1.38m profit before tax, 12.4p EPS
Full year, £17.8m revenue, 4.20m profit before tax, 37.6p EPS
Second half by deduction. £10.2m revenue, £2.82m profit before tax, 25.2p EPS

Put to one side that they will likely have grown very strongly in the first half of this year compared to the second half of last year. Even if they only reported figures equivalent to the second half of last year, the growth rates would be

34% on revenues
104% on profit before tax
103% on EPS

Can't see a negative reaction to numbers like those, let alone that the actual numbers could/should be a lot higher. If they report figures suggesting anything like 70p EPS (Finncap had before the FSP started was realistic), and called off the FSP, but reported a bullish outlook on 2021, my gut guess is that the stock travels north quite quickly...

Eric

[investographer] 09/1/2021 18:43

I was going to mention this to Rupert Garton, but the last time I wrote to him, he was extremely rude, to the extent that when I showed it to another shareholder, they wanted nothing more to do with BOTB

[pireric] 08/1/2021 18:35

For idle speculation purposes...

The company said in late November that they would announce the date for the interim results "shortly". They typically do this in November based on previous years

The fact that they still have not done this suggests they do not want to confirm to a specific date this month. That in turn suggests they are waiting on some event to pass, and perhaps lends credence to the FSP process being active and engaged today, rather than just drifting without progress. I.E. the aim to be to announce the interims in combination with either 1) a bid, 2) an end to the FSP without a bid, 3) some other corporate event - e.g. JV on new opportunity

Either way we should find out soon. The backstop to no bid is as it always has been. They should be on track for serious earnings growth this year, and in this market, a valuation that is very undemanding. Even if no bid is announced, I can't fathom the market wouldn't be excited by what could be some huge revenue and EPS growth rates coming up in the interim results.

Eric

[feverfan] 08/1/2021 09:09

Two options I see...

1. bidders still going through the numbers - unlikely as you say...it isn’t a high complex company where you’d expect to need to do months of Due Diligence

2. Price not high enough for mgt to accept.

I think it’s 2. And I’m happy to wait! They’re in no rush to sell, and why should they be? I think their own expectations of what they can expect have gone up. Remember the shares but what a year ago were £4 and we are now talking £20? Ie 5x more... and they’re seeing the unbelievable growth figures come through month after month - founders often get accused of selling too early...there’s obviously no right answer and it’s easy to say you sold too early with hindsight...but why would you sell up now when they appear to have got the model finessed and fine tuned so beautifully and it’s beginning to throw off cash. Imagine they pay a, let’s be conservative, 50p divi this year, very plausible...thatR17;s what 4.7m shares for Will, so a £2.3m payday....and 1.4m shares so £700k for Rupert. It’s not exactly small amounts! And you’d expect that amount to continue to grow.

Their concern is maximising value for shareholders, not appeasing posters on a bulletin board 😂 Their interests align directly with yours; if I didn’t believe they do any more, I would be selling and walking away. I hold

[investographer] 08/1/2021 08:58

What I do not get is how this process has dragged on for several months.When the process was announced last June, it would have been very clear what the company would have seen as an acceptable offer based on the share price, potential etc at the time.It is not a complicated set of books to go through.I am now worried what info these potential suitors have taken from the company.Not a difficult model to replicate.

[feverfan] 08/1/2021 08:56

I wonder whether this will have generated interest from institutions now they’re a bit bigger? I know Keith Ashworth Lord from SDL wanted to buy them but they were too small for his Free Spirit and Buffetology funds, and his smaller co funds didn’t get off the ground...

But surely given there’s virtually zero institutions other than Stancroft trust which looks to be private money, and a tiny shareholding for Octopus, I think about 1%....surely there’s scope for some institutions who have a long term view to buy in here and for finncap to help facilitate an offloading of the founder stakes to institutions?

I can only think this hasn’t happened to date as the founders haven’t wanted to sell yet, but perhaps if they don’t do a deal now and want some cash, they will.

I’m happy the company staying public though as our interests are super aligned with management and they’re not even paying themselves silly amounts - the rewards should come through continued tasty dividends (or further buybacks) - another feature I love about BOTB in that they’re highly cash generative and their cash conversation rates are always good so no accounting adjustment trickery

[steptoes yard] 08/1/2021 08:38

Always the option albeit less likely of turning down a lowball offer and kicking on with the business and slowly with FinnCap help releasing some shares and getting their 70% holding gradually down to lower levels. That way they trouser a chunky sum, still have the shareholdingxshare price on paper and adopt a more dividend heavy distribution. Less likely though.

[feverfan] 08/1/2021 08:24

They’ve definitely cranked up the marketing budget. I’d never seen an ad before for BOTB and yet now when watching top gear on Dave will see two an episode (clearly targeted marketing, excellent!). I wonder though, as that traditional marketing is clearly expensive, but I think, from a trawl of their social media both official and unofficial, lots of it is coming through social media. I have merely liked their pages on fb and insta and instantly within hours I’m getting targeted marketing on fb and insta to play. These are usually a lot cheaper than tv and I think, more effective so I’m desperate to see the H1 figures to see how it’s going!

Re a low ball offer, I think the protection of having the Chairman as a shareholder will hopefully keep a low ball offer out - as well as the integrity of management who to date have given me no reason to question their integrity (quite the opposite actually, I’ve been very impressed and pleased to support them as a shareholder).

Re CGT my thinking was exactly that...they’d pay 20% on any gain at the mo if they close, let’s say. Before March (potential Rishi doesn’t raise taxes till autumn but there’s a good chance he could do it now IMO). Vs paying CGT at probably much higher rates...even 30%/40% would be huge extra tax bill so that might economically make more sense to take the cash now, than wait it out. Then again if they seriously believe in the potential of the business to grow further, they shouldn’t let the tax tail wag the dog as if they keep the business the tax should in the medium term be a mute point!

Re PE: yes, I could see this happening if they buy the business as is and just keep running it but want to lever up the marketing spend with the intention of re floating it in a few years. This is why I felt the addition of PE in the Nov update was very interesting and plausible, and remember, this PE (maybe multiple?) got on board AFTER September - so when the price was what £14-18 range...so they’d clearly be prepared to pay £20+ if they’re showing interest...vs the original bidders might not have such appetite (or may not have originally but when they see the growth might find those extra £££!)

Either way, deal or no deal...I’m fascinated and if there is a no deal announcement in combo with the end of Jan update - I think finncap will have an updated eps target anyways so the shares may dip if some traders get out...but I’m hoping they’re already got bored and moved on, and the long term shareholders / new ones buy in for the new growth that’s on display.

[serratia] 07/1/2021 23:46

Point 5 - PE has history. Buy out a company load it with debt (take cash out re future earnings) and re float it , cash in the pocket BOTB have shown they can crank up the revenue re marketing and have the margins to do that.
Looking for £1 EPS year end but need to see the balance between additional marketing costs and extra income from the mid week games.

[stan marsh] 07/1/2021 23:22

Re 1. Yes I had thought of that. Not much more to say than you have already except to work out William’s additional CGT at 45% and discount that into the price, but I don’t have my model to hand. (But it’s a lot, so an incentive to do a deal, but they are running short on time to close it.)

Re 4. Yes, thought of that too, as it has happened to me badly before. Market and law is a bit more savvy these days, but it did occur to me to call FinnCap and mark their card early on. Never made the call though.

[investographer] 04/1/2021 16:35

Interesting that & a good climb since.A similar thing could happen here with an end to the FSP being announced with a cracking trading update & increase in broker forecasts

[asagi] 04/1/2021 16:25

"Can not believe that the take over panel has not got involved here."

the Takeover Panel allowed audioboom's FSP to go on for more than 8 months before it closed without a bid being put to shareholders.

Asagi (no position)

[investographer] 04/1/2021 13:24

An excellent analysis of BOTBHttps://youtu.be/k_nqsjpOFto

[investographer] 04/1/2021 07:41

The FSP process started on 17th June 2020, looks like management have been too flexible, nearly 7 months later. Can not believe that the take over panel has not got involved here. As I told Rupert Garton, this is totally unacceptable.

[peart] 04/1/2021 07:06

With about 3 1/2 weeks to go until the interims should be with us, at which stage the company with 9 months of the current financial year behind them should have a very good handle on the expectations for the full year, and perhaps beyond. Nice dividend should be on the cards for next month, unless the FSP comes alive in which case it will no doubt be withheld as part of the deal. I suspect that is why the date for the interim announcement has not been announced to give management some flexibility on the FSP front, but who knows for sure.