Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[ryanc106] 05/2/2021 10:33

Just checked my HL account and a nice £2.6k has landed. Might treat myself to a nice bottle or two of Châteauneuf-du-Pape this weekend.

[investographer] 05/2/2021 08:09

Looking forward to it, not in my account yet....

[peart] 05/2/2021 06:49

Well team, a nice dividend has landed on the matt for us holders this morning! Another few weeks and we'll be getting a trading update in March if history repeats.

[ryanc106] 03/2/2021 14:14

That is correct Peart yes.

[peart] 03/2/2021 13:47

I'm sure someone stated on this panel that Finncap, BOTB'S broker, was not allowed to give fwd earnings estimates whilst the company was in an FSP?? Is my understanding correct here? Red tape I guess....

[ryanc106] 03/2/2021 13:47

Wow - Nice to see so many posters on here and some good points being made.
Looks like BOTB is finally getting a bit of mainstream appeal :)

[peart] 03/2/2021 13:34

Assuming the FSP does not proceed and assuming the current success continues, I can see this in the £50 range in the next twelve months or so. Not that it would effect the overall value of the company in any way, but at such levels, should they arise, a share split would possibly occur. Say a 10 for 1, taking each share down to the £5ish level. It's not required and makes no difference apart from making the shares a bit more accessible to people than £50 plus each share type of prices.

I obviously have no knowledge of what management may or may not be thinking, but my comment is based upon what other companies have often done, under such scenarios.

Just a thought....

[peart] 03/2/2021 11:33

Good point Investographer, but a fair few people were furloughed at that time. In any event, people like to have a go at winning a car and a big cheque, so I'm not so sure lockdowns will make a lot of difference on or off. At least I hope that's the case, but it's worthy of discussion. As I think you mentioned they have and are developing an APP for mobiles so people can play whilst on a break whilst at work, so I'm not so sure the current situation is making matters better than they would have been. Perhaps when all of this lifts and we get back to normal people will as a whole spend more on such things as BOTB. I doubt the lottery has been affected much by the current situation and I doubt it will change much when it ends. Also, as you say things weren't too bad during May to October. Fundamentally BOTB's management, after many years, have hit the sweet spot and know what they are doing. Barring some unforeseen disaster its onwards and upwards for this minnow.

[this tea tastes of chicken] 03/2/2021 11:26

I'm not getting this obsession that it is a lockdown stock in any way. What DID happen was that the Board had made a move from physical locations (airports) to 100% online in advance of a traumatic period in our lives when the whole population was forced online by a pandemic. There is a subtle difference.

You see, whilst I agree that during lockdown, people had more time to muck around on the net and may have been directed to things such as BOTB, it doesnt mean to say that they will cease to do this when the fairy lights are switched back on. And who out of us here truly believes it will be like it was before?

In addition to the above, I'm sure some of the users will confirm but the submission of an entry does not take all day, I reckon it takes well less than half an hour. Less than the time people spend swiping on Twitter, chatting in corridors or dare I say it, some form of commuting.

Nah, sorry. Dont get it. They went online which was a mix of well planned and fortuitous and then the investor mainstream media went ball deep obsessing about Covid stocks like they did Brexit stocks or Emmerdale air crash stocks or BLM stocks. What happened to quality companies with good databanks, customer acquisition metrics, targeted advertising and the prospect of changing peoples lives, not to mention their own fortunes?

Finally, I presume BOTB will maintain their policy of advertising in the evenings as well as daytime to catch those poor souls who "may" have to return to what it was like before?

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 03/2/2021 11:14

Not fully opened up society. But that is a major point Investograher.
Yes indeed. As November restrictions landed I bet BOTB revenue went up.

[investographer] 03/2/2021 11:05

Hey Peart, the last set of amazing Interim results were for the six months ended 31 October 2020.This was for May, June, July, August, September & October, a period when we werent even in a lockdown.Thats how strong the business model is!

[shanklin] 03/2/2021 09:08

Just watched:

Investographer 4 Jan '21 - 13:24 - 784 of 922

An excellent analysis of BOTB



Interesting presentational style but cannot argue with the points he made. Subsequent events suggest he was being conservative.

Section on BOTB starts 7 minutes in.

[peart] 03/2/2021 08:30

As said, I'm inclined to agree idriveajag, but ultimately management will decide what direction they wish to take things. I sense they've got plenty still to go at sticking with what they are currently doing. I reckon the growing database must have significant value, as they have touched on at the interims last month. Another update will be on the cards next month - that will be interesting - hopefully more of the same.
As I'm typing I'm wondering how much of the recent massive growth is down to lockdowns etc. That might prompt management to diversify somewhat to attempt to maintain growth, if they expected a dip post Covid-19. Perhaps lockdowns have made no difference either way to the business, but it is certainly something to consider.

[idriveajag] 03/2/2021 07:25

Revenues are growing well with the current business model. No need to try to compete in other areas at present.

[peart] 02/2/2021 13:34

I too have wondered if they might use the customer base and morph into general gambling, but do they need to? Have they not got a very nice niche that they seem to be doing very well at....

[peart] 02/2/2021 13:30

You might be right Investographer, I suspect more though. Surely when we are probably going to be close to £1.50 per share of earnings for this year, why sell for 20 times that with such growth occurring. There's perhaps some wishful thinking going on, by myself, but £30 sounds a bit light to me, unless management think that current growth is suddenly going to stall from such huge growth to plateauing which has to be unlikely. Even if we plateaued and earned £1.50 per share from now on, 20 times is not exactly an exciting offer, in my view. I expected 40p ish at the half way stage, we got close to 60, I expected (last year) late 50's/60 ish for the second half, I think in light of the first half that 90 ish is perhaps on the cards. Even if these estimates prove to be wrong, which they probably will be, what will the fwd eps be for Apr 2022 - Surely a minimum of £2, maybe £3 or more. Such figures must surely support a higher valuation than £30....

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 02/2/2021 13:23

All depends on the value of the customer base.
Could botb morph into a general gambling site. IE Casio or possibly a sports betting business.

I'd imagine that wouldn't be too difficult to do. It's only software.

It's the customer base that trusts your service that is hard to buy.

[investographer] 02/2/2021 12:54

Any potential suitor will surely now have to stump up GBP 30 minimum per share.That would take the market cap to GBP 300 odd, a bit racy me thinks.

[peart] 02/2/2021 12:44

I suspect there is a fair bit of expansion still possible in the UK before the company needs to take on other shores. That is purely based upon the company's sales and profitability at present, which are still pretty small stock market wise. Maybe management will think they can do both. We'll see....

[peart] 02/2/2021 12:37

No problem Shanklin, just my personal opinions on this company. I've been in it since flotation as I was with several other micro companies. Some went pear shaped, some did ok, some are drifting on, and this one and one other are doing very well. Such are the joys of small company investments!! It hasn't been an easy or smooth ride. Hopefully with BOTB starting to get moving this will be a fun and interesting journey. There are sadly no guarantees though!!

[shanklin] 02/2/2021 12:34

I guess a question is whether it is easy to expand into new territories and how best to go about it. At least in the UK there was a long history of this type of game. I have no idea about the rest of the world.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 02/2/2021 12:31

They can keep the cash as far as I'm concerned and find a way to expand the business.
This formula will 100% work abroad.
Keep the divi money IMO and go hunting in new territories. Like Poland, Ireland or Holland etc.
Pretty easy business model to repeat.
Exciting times.

[peart] 02/2/2021 12:30

My view is that this business is off to the races with its growth and profits. But as with any business there are caveats to that. Is recent growth all Covid related? I don't think so, but it could be. Is there some regulatory risk down the line? Who knows, but BOTB is fairly small at present so I feel that that risk is currently low. Could a worthwhile competitor come into the space and eat BOTB's lunch? That is always a possibility. There are lots of risks, but there is also a risk in seeing these possible types of risks and selling a stock too early and regret doing so after the event and after they fail to materialise.
My judgement is that the risks are to the upside, and that the business will continue to flourish. That judgement obviously could be wrong and all of the opinions out there are what makes a market.
If there is a reasonable dip in the share price I will consider buying more.

[shanklin] 02/2/2021 12:26

Thank you serratia and Peart

That's all very helpful.

£25m for H2 would be an excellent outcome.