Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Best Of The Best Plc LSE:BOTB London Ordinary Share GB00B16S3505 ORD 5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  10.00 0.67% 1,500.00 1,167 11:12:34
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
1,450.00 1,550.00 1,500.00 1,490.00 1,490.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Travel & Leisure 17.79 4.20 37.51 40.0 141
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
15:36:17 O 2,000 1,500.00 GBX

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23/10/202013:13Best Of The Best562

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Best Of The Best Daily Update: Best Of The Best Plc is listed in the Travel & Leisure sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker BOTB. The last closing price for Best Of The Best was 1,490p.
Best Of The Best Plc has a 4 week average price of 1,425p and a 12 week average price of 1,425p.
The 1 year high share price is 1,900p while the 1 year low share price is currently 275p.
There are currently 9,377,253 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 5,382 shares. The market capitalisation of Best Of The Best Plc is £140,658,795.
investographer: Whilst BOTB is in the FSP process, I doubt any update will have a material impact on the share price. The last cracking AGM had no effect. Volumes are pathetic. I am very surprised that they are five months into this process & still no conclusion, especially as there are several interested parties.
peart: I'm with you Ryanc106, as we often are. I think a knock out offer should be in the early 40's from what we know. In a few months time we could be on a forward EPS of circa £1.50 per share, which makes early 40's not terribly expensive for such proven growth. I also agree with Steptoes Yard with the comment that the price only increases for this company as time progresses, as such growth, once proven and baked in, comes with a price. If management are confident of say £1.50 for next year and perhaps £2 for the year after (not unreasonable assumptions considering current growth), then why settle for a mediocre price? It has to be knock out, as even though the company may anticipate such growth or maybe higher growth they still would need to achieve it. Hence an early 40's offer might tease them out, as it were. Much less and I suspect they will stay the course, and if they can achieve such growth the share price will follow to that sort of level regardless. We would all like that price now, and for that only time is going to tell!
ryanc106: I agree Serratia. I've done a few calcs based on implied eps outcomes at different multiples. We already know that they are going to beat the 69.8p eps this year comfortably so my best guess is that eps will be somewhere in the region of 80-90p If we take 80p eps for this year, and apply multiples of 30,40 & 50 we get implied Share prices of £24,£32 & £40 respectively. If we take 90p eps for this year, and apply multiples of 30,40 & 50 we get implied Share prices of £27,£36 & £45 respectively. I don't see any reason why a multiple of 40-50 on those eps scenarios is out of the question. One thing that is for sure is that we are hugely undervalued at current levels. I have been accumulating more over the last few weeks for that reason. Looking forward to the day it starts to HEAT UP!!
peart: If the FSP fails on price and the company can show significant growth over the next, say two years, that growth and the by then 3-4 year trend will prove very valuable and might tease out a realistic offer at that time from say a bigger player than is perhaps currently interested. By then if the expected trends in growth continue we might be looking at a massively higher share price. ie. let's assume that in two years a forward p/e of say £2.20 - £2.50 per share is on the cards - do the maths - on a take out price of say 40 times forward earnings we're talking £80 - £100 per share. Obviously a bit of wishful thinking here, but certainly by no way impossible - maybe quite a bit higher, particularly if USA buyers were interested and it is a tech stock. If the company performs as we all feel and hope, this one is off to the races. I'm also excited about the possible dividends for the current year, as I've said before 60 - 70p per share would not surprise me. We received 37p on 37.51p of earnings in the last financial year, and with eps expected at circa 70p this year, which they are most likely beating 60 - 70p might be conservative.
serratia: Time line, comments/thoughts - Jan 29th price £4.00. Jan 30th H1 results, price up to £4.45. Drifts down. March 16th , announce that H2 started well, price moves slightly £3.75 up to £3.95. Drifts up to £4.45 on May 6th. May 7th - say will beat market expectations , price jumps 33% to £5.82. Keeps moving up to £8.10 on June 12th. June 15th - results, price jumps 51% to £12.25. I was expecting £10.50 if the market looked at the whole year figures, £14 if it focused only on the second half. June 16th £12.50 , June 17th offer announced, price moved to £14.70. Maybe a £2.20 bid premium ? August 5th £15.50. If BOTB were not interested I assume they'd have RNS'd that talks ended so I guess they're still in talks. August 20th £17.25, today £16.75. At the time of the bid talks I had a target well in excess of £14.70 for H1 figures to October. On July 17th after 1 month they started to increase marketing. Just guesswork - They've opened the books and after a month of talks they want a higher price than the indicative offer(s)? End of July revenue rising so they can disclose Q1 figures and show things accelerating. August 19th revenue well up and they ease off. August should produce very good figures. At the time of the talks announcement the price was £12.50. What would a prospective offer look like? With growth accelerating it couldn't have been too low or the talks would have ended either early or within the 28 days. Total guess £17.50 walk away, maybe £20 keeps talks going. I'd hope for a higher figure and pushing the marketing/revenue was used to back up a higher demand. Could they get £25 or even £30 ? Depends obviously on the buyer. I think they could justify £25. On the other side the family own most of the shares with the CEO having over 4m, over 50% and the chairman from memory over 800k. The chairman is not a youngster and might want to cash in. The CEO has over £75m at today's price. At £25 he'd get £110m either way he'll be wealthy so does he want to continue running the company, would he be happy with £75m, would he try for £110m? Maybe he'd settle for under £25 he'd still be a very rich man. So, who knows ? My model is looking upwards from £17.50 after H1 results. All just thoughts, no advice intended.
serratia: Peart, Web traffic is part of it but there are a lot of indicators that can also be derived. I'm always playing with figures to try future predictions. When I first looked at BOTB I started with a basic model and it's evolved over time. When I first started the price was sub £3 and my model was signalling from memory £4.80. I invested as there was sufficient margin for error. Sadly as it was work in progress at that time I didn't go in too high as the model needed to be tested against results. The model has been further developed and has been accurate on revenue generation. From revenue I can work down to cash flow. From there we come to an unknown which is the share price the market attributes to cash flow. To get a feel for that I look at the ratio of share price to cash flow going back up to 5 years. This gives me a range for the minimum/maximum ratio attributed to the share. This has moved around a bit but at the max end the market seems to give a figure of roughly 23* the cash flow at the level I measure it so over the financial year I use the 23* to estimate the top end. As they are growing well it gravitates towards the higher figure. From the last set of results my prediction was £11 based on past figures. As they're still growing the price moved up along with my target as I track the coming half. The price has risen past the £11 as buyers factor in continuing growth and then the potential bid premium. I have no insight what BOTB would accept or what bidders would pay. Also pre bid news I could see a steady revenue growth which implied a share price above the present £17. The bid approach caused them to push revenue generation at least for 4 or 5 weeks. I've noticed a pull back this month so they were showing bidders what it could do. I would expect a bid to be in excess of £17, if the bid fails I would think it would drop back by whatever the market has added as a bid premium. If it drops back on the absence of a bid I'll add more. I haven't given future price projections and I'm not qualified to give advice so it's down to DYOR.
serratia: SY, A while back I developed a spread sheet to link things I find on the web to revenue. When I first put it together I tested it against that particular half year and as it looked good I bought in sub £3 as even if I was out there was plenty of upside potential. At that stage I didn't know how accurate I could make it so didn't go in too heavily compounded by the large spread. My figures came out pretty accurately so I started adding. For the latest annual results my model suggested £17.54m revenue and the result was £17.79m. In addition I expanded the model right through the P/L to get to a cash flow figure. I could then use past ratio's for share price to cash flow to predict a share price. H1 last year was spot on H2 was targeting £10 from memory but then the offers hit taking it up to £15-16. The £10 figure was looking at the past and I could see revenue accelerating into this half targeting a likely price above £16 so I'm happy to hold and add a few at the higher prices. Then the potential offers came in and they accelerated revenue generation. There are a couple of unknowns running into H1 figures. On the upside the mid week game should push up my ratio's but I've no idea by how much. Secondly the cost of customer generation will have risen as they've been giving away bigger prizes. I adjust my model on a daily basis so todays target price will change over the rest of the half. If no bid comes in they may well drop back on expenditure to cycle back to what looked like their original target which implies a price ahead of £16.
serratia: Over the years they've been given a share price in relation to sales/profits. It is possible to derive these figures ahead of the results. This half they seemed to have settled on a target which equates to a share price when the half year results appear of £21. Then a bid approach appeared and they increased the customer capture/revenue generation. Now at the end of Q1 the figures indicate if maintained through H2 a target of £25 - 26. They put their foot down after the bid approach and July's figures would target a £32 price. This is probably a push to sway the deal price and I wouldn't expect that level of drive to continue during the rest of the half. Maybe they were just pushing it to back up their price target. My guess is they're asking for £25, maybe more. If the deal drops away I'd still be looking for £20 at the end of H1 so will add on any drop following a failed bid.
peart: mammyoko - I would agree that your plausible interpretation of what has possibly happened is a possibility and I think there are many others, we simply don't know. I would have thought however that indicative prices would have been discussed before BOTB announced the FSP, as surely management need to reasonably know that someone is serious before announcing a FSP. We all know that with the share price at £12.50 pre FSP announcement that £15 is derisory, so as I'm typing this my thoughts are evolving and I think that your scenario is unlikely. Perhaps with £25 instead of £15 and I think this might be more realistic, with William and Rupert rightly wanting more. None of us know - we'll all just have to wait and see what happens....
investographer: Paul Scott on Stockopedia Best Of The Best (LON:BOTB)Share price: 1400p (up 12% today, at 09:06)No. shares: 9.38mMarket cap: £131.3m(I'm currently long)Review of Options under Formal Sale ProcessBest of the Best plc runs competitions online to win cars and other prizes.The company has received;...very preliminary expressions of interest which could potentially lead to an offer or offers being made for the Company.How interesting! There's an obvious rationale for a larger gaming group to buy BOTB, and then feed its existing customer database into the company, hence scaling it up rapidly. BOTB has about 2 decades of experience in this niche, and considerable brand credibility from years of operating from UK airports - people still remember this, even though the company gradually went online-only over the past few years.The Board of BOTB has confidence in the long term prospects for the Company but believes that it is in the best interest of all stakeholders to explore possible strategic options for the business (including a potential sale) by commencing a "formal sale process"My opinion - I think we're in a nice position here. There's possible further upside if one or more bidders put in an offer to buy the company. Management has a controlling stake, so they won't sell it on the cheap. Their track record is such that I think we can trust them to look after small shareholders, as they have in the past.If no acceptable bids are forthcoming, then we have very strong profit growth to look forward to, and the share price should continue rising long-term.A cynic might say that the recent big hike in FY 04/2021 forecast earnings might have been at least partially motivated by maximising the sale value of the company? That said, the company has overshot forecasts 5 times in total in the last year, so clearly the previous forecasts were far too pessimistic, and didn't reflect the traction the company is gaining with its digital marketing. Plus other growth initiatives.Forecast EPS is 70p for this year, so at 1400p we're only on a PER of 20 - arguably still cheap for a company that's just reported doubling its profit, and has extremely high operational gearing with more growth underway.It's tempting to bank some profit, but I think it's worth 2000p+, hence logically I feel it makes sense for me to sit tight. Obviously that's just one person's opinion, other investors may be happy to bank profits. It's your call!
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