Barclays Share Discussion Threads

[superbarnet] 17/8/2009 08:26

Here comes the rebound.

[shazzieb] 17/8/2009 08:23

Looking for a lower price today. Seems to be like a yo-yo

[ball deap] 17/8/2009 08:07

going to be a free fall day by looks

[grahamite2] 17/8/2009 08:05

347 surely will be hit, possibly 340.

[smurfy2001] 16/8/2009 22:08

keith95,

re: link



I don't understand fully how it impacts retail investors apart from there's reduced visibility of the order book (we can see LSE and PLUS trades today), so anyone who's been in the game a long time would best to comment.

Anyone?

[saltaire111] 16/8/2009 20:44

Didn't he put $5b into GS when its stock was $50? What's the GS price today?

If that's being past it, I wish I was!!!

Salty

[smurfy2001] 16/8/2009 15:41

Taffee,

Buffett's Berkshire messed-up on derivative risks



LOL - would you listen to Buffet now? He's past his sell by date.

[smurfy2001] 16/8/2009 12:22

Plenty of FTSE100 stocks less then p/e 10 but yes, some seem overvalued, e.g. metal stocks but the rises (and subsequent overvaluation) are based on increased metal prices so P/E is lagging.

Not everyone is investing for a dividend, look at Barclays, bought from 53p as shares, gains from battered stocks better then any dividend...

[taffee] 16/8/2009 12:04

ftse is currently 12 x earnings after peaking at 13.5 x earnings in 2007

It currently yields under 4%

[smurfy2001] 16/8/2009 11:41

That makes the FTSE100 undervalued....

[taffee] 16/8/2009 11:02

yes but usually bear market end with p/e of 5-7% across the board and dividends in double digits

sp500 'bottomed' at 12 x earnings in march with dividend yield around 4%

[smurfy2001] 16/8/2009 10:54

Let's have another view eh? Buffet screwed up big time buying Oil at the top so he does not know what will happen...


Fidelity, the fund manager, thinks the FTSE 100 could hit 5,100 by the end of 2009 - 9% higher than at present. F&C and HSBC Asset Management have pencilled in 5,000, while Morgan Stanley expects the index to edge up to 4,800.

Its research into the aftermath of bear markets, looking back to the 1930s, shows the usual post-bear market rebound is 71% over 17 months. At present, European markets are up just 42% over five months, while US stocks have risen 49% over the same period.

"It if ends here, it would have been a very small rebound," said Teun Draaisma at Morgan Stanley.

Merrill Lynch's view broadly tallies. Patrik Schowitz expects European markets to rally another 33% by the end of 2010. "The end of the global recession, a recovery in corporate profits - although limited - and still-supportive valuations will drive the rise," he said.

[taffee] 16/8/2009 08:42

warren buffet out of equities

according to sunday times money section page 4 and 5

'warren buffet the investor has been moving out of equities and into bonds in recent months'

'Others are less optimistic.Warren Buffet the legendary investor has got out of stocks in the beleif that the rally has run out of steam,his spending on shares has fallen to its lowest level in 5 years'

[taffee] 16/8/2009 06:20

well if you have made 600% profit you would be really stupid not to take it

smurf....nothing wrong with being a contrarian

nothing is a one way bet

[smurfy2001] 15/8/2009 17:39

Is that taffychaff from the iii board?

Still not going with the flow and shorting huh?

[taffee] 15/8/2009 14:20

one of the big problems is valuation....the sp500 is on 19-24 x earnings depending on how you look at it....in peak 2007 it was at 17.5....the long term average is under 10...BUT that includes the lunatic 33 in 2000

sp500 could half and still be expensive......particularly in a credit crisis

[capricious] 15/8/2009 14:14

Yep, "sell in may and go away" was completely wrong this year. Saying that, this oft told tip is statistically proven not to be that great anyway, the better approach which isn't often mentioned, is buy in November and hold through to April. This has statistically proved to be over 1% per month average gain.

Sept/Oct are historically the worst months and this year could be no exception, but I haven't found the data that shows what the performance is like 'coming out' of a recession.

[taffee] 15/8/2009 14:11

yes but people didn't say that when it was 50p did they?....no-one was interested...yet at 360p everyone thinks buy on the dips!

truth is when everyone is bullish the market wipes out as many as it can

There is incredible risk still at barclays,presently ignored by the herd

[the juggler] 15/8/2009 14:07

fazals - In these current times nothing is running true to previous form. The old adage of "sell in May and go away" would have cost anyone following that advice a fortune!

So I feel it unlikely that BARC will see £3 again, however I am convinced enough by the value of the stock that if it did take a dip to that level I for one would buy more.

[keith95] 15/8/2009 14:04

History always repeats itself - until it doesn't.

[fazals] 15/8/2009 14:02

September is being mooted historically as a bad month for stocks. Could the share price go down to 300p or below...any views?

[isis] 15/8/2009 08:14

This could be a boost:-

Buy-to-let securities boost for housing market

[wenlynn] 15/8/2009 08:12

Xworks,
Couldn't be better.
Hopefully people will realise that the lack of posts is a good thing !
BARC will gently increase and dividends, probably modest, will be reinstated.
A very good situation !

Have a good day y'all !