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16/4/2021
12:04 | bernie37: Lloyds Banking shares favoured again, this time by Barclays
“We remain positive on UK banks with the runway clearing and look for an activity-driven rebound"
Analysts at Barclays stock-broking arm are bullish on the prospects for the UK banks ahead of the first-quarter results season that starts on 27 April with HSBC PLC (LON:HSBA).
“We remain positive on UK banks with the runway clearing and look for an activity-driven rebound to deliver above-consensus earnings for a number of our banks alongside positive rates optionality at undemanding valuations.”
Barclays says it expects to see improving domestic income (mortgage tailwind, steeper yield curves), strong investment bank revenues, benign asset quality (case for write-backs building), and robust capital ratios with the focus shifting to likely second half dividend restarts.
US peers Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan yesterday smashed through estimates in their respective first quarters.
Goldman posted a 102% increase in net revenues to US$17.7bn for the quarter to March 31, while pre-tax earnings rocketed 518% to US$8.3bn.
JP Morgan’s net income zoomed up 399% to US$14.3bn, mostly thanks to credit reserve releases of US$5.2bn.
Barclays said Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LON:LLOY) is its favourite among the high street majors, though it is underweight Asia-focused HSBC and Standard Chartered PLC (LON:STAN).
Lloyds shares eased 1% to 43.37p.
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07/4/2021
07:57 | prbshares: Sunshine & Blue sky today... blue is the theme... I am even wearing blue framed RTG's ;-)
I want to see barc break through the 190p mark and hold at this level ... the consolidation here between 184-189 has been good but I don't want it to be reliant on the BB.
With the RTG's on I see barc at the 220p level based on its previous performance through lockdown, UK and US economy pushing forward. The bank is profitable, secure in its funding and diversifying its lucrative IB across the globe... come on barc lets have a flyer !!
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04/4/2021
15:06 | dylan 65: My view is that when Barclays, went exdividend,there was a legal,commitment by the Barclay,a board to pay the 6 pence dividend, I cant understand, why the large Barclays, share,holders,are not pressing, Barclays, to either, pay the withheld
,dividends, for April, and October, 2020, or pay a large special, dividend, to shareholders, ,
It's clear Barclays have the funds to pay, ,,,,BARCLAYS, CANT,IGNORE,THE SHAREHOLDERS ,REQUEST, TO PAY THE DIVIDENDS ,BARCLAYS, ARE USING THE SHAREHOLDERS, DIVIDENDS TO INVEST, IN THERE OWN SHARES, ALSO OTHER COMPANIES SHARES, TO MAKE HUGE GAINS, ON THE STOCKMARKET,
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30/3/2021
18:01 | diku: Barc kissed 190p today so is getting closer to the psychological round number of 200p is at play now...watch HSBA back to 455 - 456p since going ex divi...that will propel Barc to 200p...HSBA and Lloy still have some catching up to do....
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27/3/2021
18:53 | bernie37: Since the 2008 financial crisis, the big UK banks have mostly lagged behind the wider stock market. But I think things could be changing. The Barclays (LSE: BARC) share price has beaten the FTSE 100 and all of its main UK rivals so far in 2021.
Is this 285-year-old business finally back on track to deliver sustainable growth? Or is this yet another false dawn?
I think it’s too soon to be sure, but I do know that Barclays has outperformed decisively over the last 12 months:
1yr change (26/03/21)
Barclays
+70%
NatWest Group
+45%
FTSE 100
+16%
Lloyds Banking Group
+12%
What’s behind this rapid share price surge? I’ve been taking a look to find out more.
What’s good
Since taking charge of Barclays in 2015, CEO Jes Staley has resisted investors pressure to scale back the group’s investment bank. Mr Staley has stuck to his vision of pairing Barclays’ UK-US investment bank with its high street operations.
The wisdom of this strategy was uncertain until last year, when Mr Staley’s bet paid off. Crashing UK markets triggered hard times in the real economy, as many businesses faced a sudden slowdown.
Many of Barclays’ corporate clients needed extra cash to survive lockdown. The group’s investment bankers were happy to help by raising funds on the debt and equity markets. A busy year saw income from corporate and investment banking rise by 22% to £12.5bn. According to management, it was the best year ever.
I think this strength is the main reason why the Barclays share price has outperformed its big rivals. This extra income helped to limit the damage from lower income at the group’s high street bank and credit card business.
Banks such as Lloyds and NatWest don’t have the same investment banking capabilities, so suffered bigger hits to profits last year.
What’s not so good
I’m confident that business in Barclays’ credit card and high street businesses will return to normal over time. But I’m not so sure what to expect from its investment banking division.
When a company reports record results, I think it pays to think about the situation.
Is this a genuine growth scenario where I can expect further progress over future years? Or is this a situation where unusual circumstances have boosted profits?
I can’t be sure how Barclays will perform over the next year or two. But I don’t expect another record-breaking performance from investment banking this year. I think what’s more likely is that we’ll see a more middling performance — similar to recent years, in fact.
The Barclays share price: what I’d do
The latest broker consensus forecasts suggest that Barclays’ earnings and its dividend will rise in 2021. Estimates for this year put the stock on 11 times forecast earnings, with a 2.9% dividend yield.
However, although profits are expected to rise this year, forecasts suggest they will still be lower than in 2019. Earnings aren’t expected to rise above 2019 levels until 2022.
In my view, Barclays and Mr Staley still have a lot to prove. But the shares look affordable to me at current levels. Over time, I expect further gains. I’d certainly be comfortable buying and holding Barclays shares today.
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25/3/2021
15:03 | bernie37: The Barclays (LSE: BARC) share price has roared back to life since the 2020 stock market crash. In fact, the FTSE 100 share has now erased all of the losses it endured following the Covid-19 outbreak. It recently struck its most expensive since December 2019, above 180p per share, in fact.
Investor appetite for the bank first spiked when news of successful coronavirus vaccine testing broke last autumn. The triumphant rollout of these pandemic battlers in Britain have allowed the Barclays share price to keep soaring too.
Yet despite its stratospheric rise I think the Barclays share price still looks really cheap on paper. City analysts think the bank’s annual earnings will soar 85% in 2021. This leaves the FTSE 100 bank trading on a price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of 0.2. Investing theory suggests any reading below 1 indicates a UK share might be undervalued.
Betting on the Barclays share price
There are several reasons why the Barclays share price could continue to ascend too. These include:
#1: Reassuring UK economic data. Banks are, of course, ultra-cyclical shares and so their fortunes are tied directly to broader economic conditions. It’s no surprise then that the Barclays share price rise has come at the same time as some key metrics, like PMI and unemployment data, in its core UK market have impressed. The good news could keep coming too as vaccine rollouts continue with great haste.
#2: Solid trading at the investment bank. Income at Barclays’ Corporate and Investment Bank rocketed 22% in 2020, thanks to extreme market volatility. It’s quite possible that trading here will remain buoyant for some time yet. Certainly as the Covid-19 crisis worsens in some parts of the world and other issues such as rising inflation and trade tensions rattle investor nerves.
3: Strong US economic growth. Unlike its FTSE 100 peers Lloyds and NatWest, Barclays has significant international exposure which could prove a key plank for long-term earnings growth. The bank has a hefty footprint in the world’s largest economy, the US. And it looks like GDP growth here will outstrip those of other advanced economies in 2021, helped by the recent $1.9trn stimulus plan.
However…
That said, there’s a couple of key reasons why I think the Barclays share price could crash again. Again, the fortunes of the banks are highly geared to the performance of the broader economy. And the outlook in the UK is packed with peril.
As the experts at Hargreaves Lansdown note: “Provisions for bad debt increased dramatically earlier in the year… and we’ll only know for sure if they are sufficient when government support is withdrawn at the end of the crisis.”
Revenues could also struggle if the economic bounce proves fleeting and the Covid-19 situation worsens.
The probability of low interest rates persisting long into the future threatens the Barclays share price too. Rock-bottom rates have smashed the difference which the FTSE 100 banks lend at, and provide to savers, over the past decade. And the Bank of England continues to publicly flirt with sending rates negative too, a scenario that would have additional ramifications on bank profits.
All things considered I’d much rather buy other cheap UK shares today.
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16/3/2021
10:12 | cashflow101: Quick statistical note,for the first time ever,that is,in the last 2-3 years,since Nat West/RBS,did a share reverse cap' thingy,ie RBS used to trade in the 20 odd pence range,Barc has overtaken them (briefly this am). Barc 185 p ish up 2-3p NatWest 185p ish,down 2-3p.
Barc 200p by Friday ?..............mind u I'm not saying which Friday !
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02/3/2021
10:58 | prbshares: Manics : Could be ... this morning Barc rose when the market was red which indicates a level of appetite. We know Barcs making money and if the economy is improving/coming alive so will Barcs profits !!
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26/2/2021
08:14 | prbshares: Manics : Amanda obviously likes risk !! I would have thought Barc wouldn't be in court if they thought they were going to lose .
So did you exit barc at 158/9 or hanging on for the ride ?
I think after such a monumental climb to 165.5p its no surprise that she is pulled back a little. I guess the question to ask is whether the market wants to fill up lower on barc ? Us mere mortals tend to be riding on the fear button when things go red, but for the big boys this is often when they spend other peoples money buying !!
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25/2/2021
12:34 | manics: Many still do not realise that international governments and regulators have colluded to ensure that the conditions which permitted BARC 700p no longer exist. Period. That is not opinion that is fact. That's not to say BARC doesn't present investment opportunities.BARC today is what, £30bn. One can't just say "700p" one has to look at the market cap. Within the realms of sensibility how can BARC ever add £100bn of value to their cap?! It cannot be done, in part because what were the most profitable parts of the business have been forever constrained by regulators.
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PLUS1
