Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[biswell] 20/7/2004 11:27

Good time to grab the lolly chaps.

HUI will fall to 150 and UK gold mining stocks will fall also as a % of the HUI fall.

FED rate rises start in earnest in a week or so, 4% by end of 2005 minimum
B

[corrientes] 19/7/2004 15:20

I learnt that a lot of management don't want to rock the boat but keep their well paid jobs. That is not intended as a slur since they are doing a good job,
but the last AGM was ample proof of that. Being in cahoots with the major holder
might ward off predators.

[niggle] 19/7/2004 15:16

No fox to what bis said earlier. I have no doubt about the true value of AVM but have leaned never to rely on it as management seem ambivalent about the share price.

[the fox] 19/7/2004 12:09

Are you referring to the 50% undervalued rating based on peer P/E's?

DR

[niggle] 19/7/2004 11:47

up again, bit of a coiled spring?

[niggle] 19/7/2004 11:46

40% of what?

[mieke] 19/7/2004 09:36

Good old Biswell, he never fails but to be the best contra-indicator. From his post yesterday:

'Whilst you lot have watching paint dry....'

That paint is starting to dry in very profitable paterns now Biswell.......

[mieke] 19/7/2004 09:20

Small uptick, and POG looking strong.
this from todays Times:

Avocet, the AIM listed goldminer will report its full year numbers on wednesday. Analysts expect an underlying pre-tax profit of £8.8million, compared with £2.4million in 2003.

[pecker1] 18/7/2004 19:20

goml,

Agree with you about the hedge. By deferring AVM are simply increasing the opportunity cost in lost profits as the gold price rises.It also assumes the counterparty to the hedge, the bank,are happy to keep deferring.

IMHO, much better for AVM to bite the bullet and get rid of their hedge, perhaps spreading the pain over two financial years. To be both debt free and unhedged would be a powerful factor in rerating AVM particularly for US investors. Would like to hear such an announcement with the forthcoming annual results.

[goml] 18/7/2004 18:12

Hey Biswell !!! Missed youuuuuu.

Dollar index currently about 87. Now you did say that you would only be worried if it breached 88. Well here we are, what's your current view? Still a dollar bull?

[holdontight] 18/7/2004 16:04

mieke...15% of resource this time last year. Should be down to 10% ish by now, but not an amount to worry about.

[biswell] 18/7/2004 11:30

Hi guys

Whilst you lot have watching paint dry, I have just made 40% on the FTSE dropping.

NAS and DJIA going nicely down the plug hole too

Will be turning my mind back to POG soon
B

[mieke] 17/7/2004 17:05

Yes you are probably correct - however I think with the resource upgrades that will come with the results I think you'll see it drop further as a % of their reserves/resource (I recall last time they said it made up just 8% of their reserves).

[goml] 17/7/2004 16:57

mieke,
deferrable it may be but i would still like to see them reducing that each year now they are almost debt free. this is my view regardless of their potential to increase production via north lanut and thereby make the hedge look smaller in percentage terms.

[mieke] 17/7/2004 16:42

Yes thats right, but it continues to be deferrable

[chipperfrd] 17/7/2004 15:07

Billyboy - I think it is still 80,000oz hedged at $296/oz on Penjom.

But I stand to be corrected if I am out of date - anyone?

[billyboy113] 17/7/2004 14:44

Does anyone know what AVM's hedging position is ?

BB

[drdre] 17/7/2004 13:22

I get 50% because POG and HGM trade at P/E's for 2004 of 16 and 15 respectively compared to 10 for AVM.

DR

[holdontight] 17/7/2004 12:05

70p will be very disappointing indeed. We may not move immediately upon results, but over the following few weeks we will - upwards of course.
POG also, IMO, due to rise, to possibly 430/440 ish.
2004 6.5p EPS, with POG ave of $380 and prod of 180000
2005, with POG ave of say $400 and prod of 220000, EPS of ??? Estimates of 11p....BARGAIN

[chambeaj] 17/7/2004 11:50

The Dow has Topped? The turn to Gold & Why!

[mieke] 17/7/2004 11:49

Shares mag on thursday featured AVM in one of its charting focus articles. didnt say much other than shares have traded sideways since Feb., and that they would have to break 70p to start a new uptrend. Surely 70p is in reach if the results are as good as we think they will be???

[holdontight] 17/7/2004 11:46

Also have ttm PE of 35x, on basis of impreasing prod, profits and reserves. Apply this to expected 6.5p EPS this time, to allow for more of the same looking forward, and we are at £2 !!
Don't know where you get the 50% from, but way too low so far as I can see.

[the fox] 16/7/2004 15:05

With a forecasted P/E of 10 for 2004 and around 6.5 for 2005, AVM is underated to the tune of around 50% compared to the likes of Peter Hambro and Highland.

I think the tungsten assets held this one back for a while. Now they have been disposed of, we should see clear progress for the shareprice. Positive news on North Lanut would be icing on the cake.

DR

[niggle] 16/7/2004 14:37

£/$ broken 1.87, should be clear sky up to 1.95 with POG at $4.30, currently 4.07 and rising. :) shoul dbe a ping up for AVM, we'll see 80p+ next week imho

[mieke] 16/7/2004 14:33

weak inflation figures out POG going for a trip north. Couple more trading days left...