Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[ohojim] 18/6/2004 13:06

jmobrien

Just filling in the hours of the day. Some might call it gambling. I call it....er....gambling.

[jmobrien] 18/6/2004 12:59

As a long term AVM holder I am not in any way an expert on short term trading, but the above post 4399 does appear self-defeating to me:

quote

LONGER TERM: We completed new research and gold has a good chance to reach $525 into the end of the year. Also consider buying Feb. 2005 call options on dips for a long-term investment.

unquote

What is the point of shorting when predicting a possible 7% fall between now and mid August (assuming no Mid East violence! )when they expect $525 ie 35% increase before year end?

An unjustified risk I would say, but maybe Biswell can explain the logic.

[ohojim] 18/6/2004 12:41

biswel

What's it worth?

Edit. Tell you what, you stop singing and peace it is. Nice chart link by the way.

[biswell] 18/6/2004 12:34

oho
Perhaps we can start again oho, peace.

B

[biswell] 18/6/2004 12:32

OhoJ hang on it might go to $397.50


B

[ohojim] 18/6/2004 12:21

biswel

For once I might have to agree with you re. gold. Just about to go short myself.

From todays Fortucast Financial timer.

AUGUST GOLD
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Hold shorts with a 393.90 stop. Exit Monday.
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Lower to 366-367.
DAILY CHART TREND: Lower to 380-381.
SWING TARGET DATE AND OBJECTIVE: 380-381 into Monday.
KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL: Resistance: 392.10 Support: 385 and 380.10.
DAILY CHART BREAK-OF-TREND NUMBERS: BREAKOUT: 395.10; BREAKDOWN: 377.
PATTERN COMMENTS: Expecting an a-b-c pattern to finish to the downside toward the 381 region and then be followed by another rally higher into June 25. Toying with the idea of a max. upside "c" wave rally to the 408 region but will need to see the Euro hold major numbers and act impulsively. May be too much to expect before the FOMC meeting so we may be stuck with consolidation.
CONCERNS: The breakout on silver could pull gold up so we will want to be long from Monday to see if we can make money on the coattails effect.
TODAYS EXPECTED DIRECTION: Lower.
TODAY'S COMMENTS: (6/18) Looking for gold to stall at 390.40 and then fall to 380-381 into Monday. May have to buy that lower support if we are right about a higher Euro much of next week.
METALS FUNDAMENTALS: (6/18) Gold got support from light dealer and fund interest spurred by weakness in the U.S. dollar. Silver followed the gold higher.
CYCLICAL INSIGHTS: Cycles over the next 6-8 weeks will probably make it rather difficult to mount much of a rally and very sickly ranges may develop until the downside is complete at 366-367. Thinking that will take until August to manifest before seasonal strength hits after August 15.
LONGER TERM: We completed new research and gold has a good chance to reach $525 into the end of the year. Also consider buying Feb. 2005 call options on dips for a long-term investment.
WEEKLY CHART PERSPECTIVE (06/14) If we are right about the dollar, then gold may struggle and push lower most of the summer unless Middle East violence gets messy according to our forecasts.
Upside potential into the summer is likely to be sluggish unless all our Middle East violence predictions manifest and the trade goes there for a flight to quality. Monthly chart patterns point toward 678 in conjunction with the falling the dollar to the 7000 region into 2005-2006.
KEY DATES: 6/30-7/2; 8/9; 9/27 (high)
GOLD SHARES (06/18) The XAU is starting to show weakening technical signs that suggest another breakdown low. Once the market takes out the 8300 region, the die may be cast for 73.50 or 70.00. The more bullish pattern could allow for a push up to 9500 for a "c" wave but we are skeptical.
Cycles for the XAU may not bottom completely until October and some kind of countertrend rally is likely from early July into August. The market could do some complex congestion pattern and if the May low in the XAU holds into July 2, we could still see a "c" wave into August.

[chipperfrd] 18/6/2004 12:17

Anyone who doubts that rising interest rates closely correlate with rising gold prices should follow this link. There is an interesting chart about 3/4 way down.

[biswell] 18/6/2004 12:07

Time to short it, methinks, let you know soon

It's a short at $397.50 I reckon will post you a nice link to show you I still care Andy.

B

[andy] 18/6/2004 11:27

Biswell,

POG now $392

Any comments?

[mieke] 18/6/2004 11:22

POG pushing through $390 with something to spare. In the period leading up to results as long as its trading +$380 I will be happy.

[thenry] 18/6/2004 10:51

lol biswell is getting desperate now.

[hectorp] 18/6/2004 09:18

Biswell, ever heard of creating a portfolio that is balanced by diversity? It has to be sensible to hold some non-related assets, gold miners over the long term should be a very good example, though the time to buy at cheapest prices may be behind us. AVM and OXS show a much more stable market than in the early spring. May be time to buy back in to these stocks. apart from that,

Interest rates rising in the US = a rising dollar = falling gold? maybe.. but what about the US national debt? This was to be whittled away by the falling USD... if the USD won't fall, then we will see 'sh*t creek' ....

[biswell] 18/6/2004 08:47

A Commodity

Don Stott

"In our view, gold is nothing more than a commodity. There will be times that gold outperforms other investments due to supply-demand imbalances that drive its price up. As an inflation hedge, gold has been replaced by more effective financial instruments. Alternatives to gold are short-term Treasury certificates or money market accounts that will benefit from higher short-term interest rates if inflation heats up. Gold has a poor long-term track record as an investment vehicle. In an inflation-adjusted basis, the metal is trading at roughly the same price it did in 1833." This is a direct quote (including ending a sentence with a preposition) from one of the foremost investment firms in the US. It was in answer to my query about gold.

This is the attitude of 99% of investment managers and advisors, and this is why probably less than 1% of Americans own gold or silver; and why I do. First of all, the majority are usually wrong, and the above arguments are easily defeated, as I will now proceed to do.

Bis note:
This is a clip from a typical POG pusher today, I would suggest you take note of what investment firms in the US do actually think as clever Don says, he is quite right in saying high inflation is here/coming the recent cpi figure shows it but because is was massaged by the FED the markets thought that rate rises would not be as quick or big as was being talked about.

They will very soon change their tune as the true state of inflation reveals itself, and rates rocket.

What do you think will happen to the $?
B

[biswell] 18/6/2004 06:42

The mighty AVM fight back continues(60p)

Even as we speak and POG has once again shown it can not take out $390, and is falling again.

How high will it go before it slides again?
B

[biswell] 18/6/2004 06:39

Bud lol, (lot's of love)

Todays song just for you

Words by David

Words....dong dong dong
Don't come easy
to me
How can I say
the words
the words I mean
I love you
Words don't come easy.

Some fishy kisses too
xxxxx

[richgit] 17/6/2004 21:42

My own "marriage",where we know there is common ground ie Mr Ex Avocet,
would be the marriage of TSG & AVM,both are at risk(In my opinion)of being bid for at undervaluation,particularly TSG and any marriage(assuming TSG`s potential is as good as Ive read),and the combination could eventually lead
to a massive re-rating on a par with and potentially above POG and far beyond any bids.That way mangament of both and all shareholders would get what WE ALL
want....THE REWARDS.

It wont happen of course,just joining in with a bit of fantasy .

[thenry] 17/6/2004 21:37

ohojim bob carver is pretty good on his gold calls.

[pecker1] 17/6/2004 21:20

BB Muppet,

Yes, could be good for both sets of shareholders as it would propel the combined company into intermediate producer status straightaway and should command a far higher market cap as much more attractive to North American investors . Obvious synergies, geographical diversification etc but would the two BOD's be able to agree on who does what/gets golden handshake to go so merger amicable?
Or what?

[shirishg] 17/6/2004 21:05

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[pecker1] 17/6/2004 20:47

mieke,

I think you are right. But, frankly, what really annoys me is the thought that quality companies like AVM could be bought for a fraction of their real worth. What is it about the Brits that makes us so pathetic when it comes to marketing ourselves? Makes me want to scream! Still, Oxs won't go quietly into the night, not least 'cos of Trew's ego and I anticipate a bidding war that will also boost AVM. So think your price targets are very conservative. To avoid any accusations, I readily admit OXS and AVM are my two largest gold holdings.

[budevenwiser] 17/6/2004 20:11

looks like biswells already lost his shirt

[mieke] 17/6/2004 19:35

Just posted this on OXS thread,looks like things may be hotting up:


Puts Biswell's 40p target even further in the shade. A bid for OXS can only be good news for AVM and with gold testing $390 I think we are set fair to be testing the 70-75p area come the results. T/O in the last few days has been the highest in 3 weeks....

[shirishg] 17/6/2004 12:37

Post removed by ADVFN