Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[goml] 03/7/2004 16:00

Biswell,

Quote:

"Bis says; I told you Jim was losing it, along with a lot of other gold bulls they just can't see that gold sometimes has to take a breather, even for a couple of years or so."

Glad you could find the time to climb out of your own bottom and grace us with your presence once again. Only the other day you were explaining to us mere mortals that Jim Sinclair was a secret gold bear, apparently now he's a bull (albeit a mad bull - although that wasn't your revelation!). I would be most grateful if you could make up your mind!

[biswell] 02/7/2004 20:22

Bis says; I told you Jim was losing it, along with a lot of other gold bulls they just can't see that gold sometimes has to take a breather, even for a couple of years or so.

Still you lucky lot you have me: Bis told you the US markets were going to go walk about and now they are.

Bad news is flowing thick and fast from the states, the economy is on the wobble. However don't start cackling with glee re POG or miners. Remember what I said in a major slide the lot get toasted. Cash is best, and wait till the slide stops.



FASB May Crack. Sinclair already has


Brady Willett

More Time For What?

On the topic of expensing, FASB Chairman Robert Herz says that, "We may need more time. We are hearing people say they are stretched to the maximum." Someone has apparently gotten to Herz. After all, it would take any accountant all of 2 minutes to take the stock options data that companies already release in footnotes and plug this data into the income statement.

As for former FASB boss Dennis R. Beresford - the man who headed up FASB during the 1993 stock options battle - he says that "My personal best guess would be it's extremely unlikely the board will be able to finish its deliberations this year anyway. Everybody is really trying to be practical. I don't think this is any kind of backing down." Less than one month ago Mr. Beresford said that he expected a final standard by the end of 2004. Apparently things have changed.

Why do I believe that someone may have gotten to Herz and Beresford? (i.e. back off the options issue or FASB will cease to exist). Because everyone already knows that all of the standards for expensing are horrible. Thus, if FASB now argues that the expensing should be delayed because the standards need to be tweaked what they are really saying is that thy have been defeated.

* No set of rules will ever be able to calculate what stock options are really worth at the time of issuance. However, companies should expense now because it is clear to everyone that some expense exists. 'Expense now, and we will work out better expensing rules in the future!' -- this is the ultimatum FASB should use now, and should have used more than 30-years ago. Instead, they look set to bow to the lobby.

Is Sinclair Sickening?

It appears that Mr. Jim Sinclair has finally flipped his rocker. Some of the highlights from his comments yesterday are as follows:

"Cool your tubes and relax. I am complimented that COT spends so much time on www.jsmineset.com. If you think an all out effort to depress the price of gold on June 29th is coincidence then you believe in fairy tales."

Mr. Sinclair goes on to suggest that he must only offer his daily comments to a smaller crowd:

"If we are smaller and therefore less of a factor in the markets COT will tire of their constant effort to make the one trader who knows gold better than they do a smaller influence. I simply will become smaller but only for the reason of not inviting their charades in the marketplace."

All these many years they were selling to discredit one person?...Silly me, I thought the commercials sold gold short to make money.

Mr. Sinclair goes on to say that more people should hoard gold (smaller isn't better?), producers should withhold production every time the price of gold falls, and that he possesses great insights because his clearing house was involved in the 'skillful' Hunt brother trades. Should someone remind Mr. Sinclair that the Hunt brother story turned out badly for the Hunts? Forget it, the man is on a roll:

"I believe that I know the exact bottom and what gold will do thereafter but clearly if I state that to the many, COT will do everything possible to screw you up. I am here to teach you and not to hurt you. If you have used Trend Lines and Fibonacci those of you who are traders would have nailed COT's intentions almost to the penny."

Mr. Sinclair previously speculated that gold could see $430 in June. Wrong. Mr. Sinclair promised - repeatedly I might add - not to publish his opinions to the public anymore if gold doesn't reach $480 an ounce by August 15, 2004. We will have to wait and see on this one.

Incidentally, I continue to own gold and believe that when the dollar cracks again that $480+ an ounce could be struck. And although part of me hopes that this doesn't happen by August 15, the last thing I would ever do is short gold.

After turning a bit more bullish on precious metals in mid-May, last week I said: "I still think that precious metals are worth owning for the long-term. Nevertheless, the time to safely add to your precious metals positions has quickly come and gone. Next week is all about uncertainty...you should be a little frightened by the fact that 11-weeks ago the commercial shorts were carrying more than double the amount of short contracts they current own."

Although I don't claim to know the COT's intentions to the penny, I do know that gold is hedge against a US dollar decline. With bets being made last week on gold and no decline in the dollar arriving this week, it is unsurprising that the commercials have attacked; it is unsurprising that the commercials wanted to make some money doing what they do best.

The US current account deficit - while clearly not sustainable in the long-term - may, or may not help send the dollar lower by August 15.



Brady Willett
[e-mail]
www.wallstreetwishlist.com

B

[chipperfrd] 02/7/2004 17:27

Mieke - I emailed them about 3 weeks ago. FD replied the same evening which impressed me.

[mieke] 02/7/2004 15:45

Richgit - has someone told the company then? there does appear to be a quote for AVM on the Berlin bourse

[richgit] 02/7/2004 15:42

Yes,Quite aware and so are Avocet,however remember many of those
Berlin stocks have also been pushed UP not down.

There is no problem placing large volume of Avocet shares judging by today`s
500,000 and a recent 750,000 which is very positive.
The new equipment going into Penjom will afford a fast pay back,with NO
INTERRUPTION!!!!!.
Judging by recent events ,with TSG, Avocet may be sat on a "hot property" at
Zeravshan.
A very busy period ahead of us after the July results.

[perfect choice] 02/7/2004 15:16

Hello Avocet investors, I don't normally post here as AVM is only on my watch list (currently hold Minmet in the mining/exploration sector and another story).

I take it you've heard about the shares in companies being registered at the Berlin stock exchange without any knowledge of the company. Is it known that Avocet is registered there? Griffin Mining and BPRG have both issued RNS statements saying they are arranging to be de-listed to avoid risks of short selling but I cannot find one for AVM and I suspect they would want to deal with this issue in the same way.

Apologies if this issue has already been spotted and is being dealt with but as a fellow mining investor I thought I would bring it to your attention if not.

You can check yourself, just go to and type in Avocet and you will find the listing. If it has not been identified then I'm sure somebody here can contact the company to raise the issue.

[mieke] 02/7/2004 14:21

well those jobs figures certainly put the cat among the pigeons. Gold bounced strongly in response and should now behave well in the next 3 weeks. we are only 13 trading days to results, so here are some guestimates about what we might see:

1) Full year post tax profits of £6-6.5m
2) Announcement that N.Lanut will start producing from October. Annual production to be 65-70,000 oz per year rather than previously thought 50000
3) Increase in reserves. Penjom up by 200,000oz, N.Lanut up by 250,000oz and Tajikstan by 300-400,000oz
4)Company is now debt free
5)Tajikstan starting to perform more efficiently with cost of gold produced falling as dump leaching takes effect
6) AVM to begin paying a dividend in from end of tax year 2005

[chipperfrd] 02/7/2004 00:40

How can Merrill Lynch say 'the share prices of South African gold producers would appreciate considerably in the forthcoming 12 months due to the strengthening rand' ??

I imagine that the last thing that gold producers want is higher costs (Rand) when their product is being sold in the declining USD.

I also don't value their comments on the effects of rising interest rates. A whole 0.25% when real US interest rates are actually negative and inflation is starting to race away! Which planet are they on?

[the knowing] 01/7/2004 23:27

Share prices of gold mining companies likely to appreciate considerably

Friday, June 25, 2004 10:34:13 AM ET
Merrill Lynch


NEW YORK, June 25 (New Ratings) - Analysts at Merrill Lynch expect the share prices of gold mining companies to appreciate significantly in the near term.


In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that gold prices have historically appreciated considerably from early summer to mid-fall. The analysts expect gold prices to rebound to $410 per oz during mid-fall this year. Given the undervalued nature of the gold mining stocks and the expected rebound in gold prices, the share price of gold mining companies is likely to appreciate significantly in the near term, according to Merrill Lynch.

[the knowing] 01/7/2004 23:25

Gold price forecast for 2004 reduced

Wednesday, June 30, 2004 2:38:25 PM ET
Merrill Lynch


NEW YORK, June 30 (New Ratings) – Analysts at Merrill Lynch have reduced their gold price forecast for 2004 from $435 to $410/oz.

In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the downward revision in the gold price forecast reflects lower-than-expected investment demand for gold. The rising interest rates in the US are likely to exert pressure on the demand for gold, the analysts say. According to Merrill Lynch, the share prices of South African gold producers would appreciate considerably in the forthcoming 12 months due to the strengthening rand.

[richgit] 01/7/2004 14:33

mikkydhu,

Good find,that will produce a fast payback.

[zaky] 01/7/2004 11:48

keep clutching your straws people - but not too hard or else you wont get any fluids through!

[phillis] 01/7/2004 10:03

Mikkydhu-any idea how much this equipment costs. Clearly any incremental investment must auger well for future output levels

[biswell] 01/7/2004 07:57

Wall Street moves higher as Fed lifts rates
By Elizabeth Wine in New York
Published: June 30 2004 13:51 | Last Updated: June 30 2004 21:26
Mieke is at the fudge again:

Wall Street scored modest gains on Wednesday as investors digested the widely expected news that the Federal Reserve had raised interest rates by 25 basis points.


The increase still leaves rates close to their lowest levels for more than 40 years.

The Fed's policy statement maintained its stance that "underlying inflation is expected to be relatively low" and "accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured ".


NOTICE THE PHRASE ''IS LIKELY TO BE MEASURED''
in other words it can be anything, MrG the wordsmith at work.
B

[mieke] 30/6/2004 22:40

Excellent spot mikkydhu. As you say its a tremendous vote of confidence in the mine and its future. Penjom had a forecast life of 4-5 more years on existing reserve estimates but the company also pointed out that they had always maintained this reserve over the years as new gold was added.The company said in its last update that results were indicating that Penjoms life could be exptended by at least a year. That would equate to an increase in reserves of at least 130,000oz. In fact I am thinking that the update in Penjom reserves will add more like 250,000oz

More good news was about POG. As expected Fed went for 0.25% but more importantly maintained the word 'measured', which means rate rises will be gradual, offering the $ only muted support.

[zengas] 30/6/2004 22:12

Excellent. Shows outstanding confidence in Penjom. Nice one mikkydhu.

What with the directors recent buy at 69p, results out in July (3 weeks), more than likely Penjom reserves will be upgraded.

[goml] 30/6/2004 14:02

Technically in the short term, i.e. the next week or two, the indicators do suggest that AVM will go a bit lower. Regardless of technicals though, it's worth remembering how close results are because they might turn the technicals on their heads.

[biswell] 30/6/2004 13:25

macd, slow stochastic, and rsi all looking down from where I sit, what are they telling you?
B

[thenry] 30/6/2004 13:08

oh looks biswell has conviniently turned up. must be time to top up again, do the opposite to biswell and u will make money lol!

[goml] 30/6/2004 13:05

biswell,

Every time I read your posts I can't help but laugh out loud. You are so up your own rectum. Keep up the good work, my job's boring and I love to laugh.

[shirishg] 30/6/2004 11:29

Post removed by ADVFN

[biswell] 30/6/2004 11:28

This goes with my previous thoughts re general stock market fall and how gold miners (eg HUI), will be adversely affected by same.

As some of you are aware I said HUI would see 150 this year in Jan when it was cica 240.
B