Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[wolstencroft] 21/6/2004 13:27

Biswell,

JP Morgan who have been bearish on gold for a few wekks now in their metals and energy technical strategist now think it may go to 410 before retracing.

But they still see oil dropping to 32-34.

Oil and Gold are not the same thing

[ohojim] 21/6/2004 13:26

FORTUCAST FINANCIAL TIMER
PRECISE TIMING AND MOVEMENT ANALYSIS BY BARRY ROSEN
"Serving Futures Traders Since 1987"
UPDATED JUNE 18 FOR MARKETS OF JUNE 21, 2004

AUGUST GOLD
TRADING RECOMMENDATION: Buy 390.50 and 392.40 with a 387.10 stop.
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Lower to 366-367.
DAILY CHART TREND: Higher to 408-410.
SWING TARGET DATE AND OBJECTIVE: 390 into Monday and higher into July 2 toward 408-410.
KEY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL: Support: 390.10, 392.10;385 and 380.10; Resistance is at 397.10 and 400.00.
DAILY CHART BREAK-OF-TREND NUMBERS: BREAKOUT:412; BREAKDOWN: 388.
PATTERN COMMENTS: We are wrong and the more bullish pattern projecting 408-410 is operating into early July.
CONCERNS: The breakout on silver could pull gold up so we will want to be long from Monday to see if we can make money on the coattails effect.
TODAYS EXPECTED DIRECTION: Retracing to 390.
TODAY'S COMMENTS: (6/21) Gold is likely to pullback to 392 or max 390 before going higher and we will need to buy this pullback.
METALS FUNDAMENTALS: (6/21) The weakening U.S. dollar brightened gold's technical picture.
CYCLICAL INSIGHTS: Cycles over the next 6-8 weeks will probably make it rather difficult to mount much of a rally and very sickly ranges may develop until the downside is complete at 366-367. That could take until early August to manifest before seasonal strength hits after August 15.
LONGER TERM: We completed new research and gold has a good chance to reach $525 into the end of the year. Also consider buying Feb. 2005 call options on dips for a long-term investment.
WEEKLY CHART PERSPECTIVE (06/14) If we are right about the dollar, then gold may struggle and push lower most of the summer unless Middle East violence gets messy according to our forecasts.
Upside potential into the summer is likely to be sluggish unless all our Middle East violence predictions manifest and the trade goes there for a flight to quality. Monthly chart patterns point toward 678 in conjunction with the falling the dollar to the 7000 region into 2005-2006.
KEY DATES: 6/30-7/2; 8/9; 9/27 (high)
GOLD SHARES (06/18) The XAU is acting more like it wants to do the "c" wave to 9500 and that would suggest a cycle high for gold shares into the early July time window. Still expect to see 73.50 and 70.00 this year before the downside is done

[shirishg] 21/6/2004 13:24

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[kany] 21/6/2004 13:03

RG, TA please on MXC.

LOL

[robby george] 21/6/2004 13:02

BB

Feel free to join Veron and my goodself on the footy thread .

[thenry] 21/6/2004 12:57

bis hows the gold short going LOL!

[robby george] 21/6/2004 12:56

BB

LOL !

[shirishg] 21/6/2004 12:55

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[mieke] 21/6/2004 11:45

LOLs ohojim.

Bis - looks like your on for the double, first mis-reading the OXS price, now the AVM price. Cracking stuff! Ignore those looming results at your peril. I've added this morning, and will add further, particularly after any dust settles after the 30th.

[ohojim] 21/6/2004 11:28

Is this the speed typing thread? BB, biswell and mieke, I'm impressed.

[mieke] 21/6/2004 11:20

Hmm looks like the merest hint of buying will push AVM up, time to buy some more methinks. The only potential negative I can see between now and results is a shock 0.5% rise by the Fed hitting POG and Greenie more or less discounted that.

BBM - and what did Mr Henry say?

[mieke] 21/6/2004 11:13

Yo Bis, as long as POG is mildly supportive AVM has only one way to go with the scent of those results only 21 trading days away (indeed as I speak its up). Your slavish adherence to charts will cost you dear. Have you learned nothing from your recent OXS debacle? Your charts seemed to point you one way so you completely ignored the fact that takeover rumours had begun to gather. Ouch! Will thy never learn?

[shirishg] 21/6/2004 11:11

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[biswell] 21/6/2004 11:08

Gold hits it 200 MA, (see why I said $397.48 now OhoJ)

Guess which way it goes next?
B

[shirishg] 21/6/2004 11:02

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[biswell] 21/6/2004 11:00

Oil price down again = Bad for POG.



Chemicals sector second highest gainer today,so far, this is on the back of more cheap oil to come. Oil is now down trending expect to see DAL fly this PM.

B

[mieke] 21/6/2004 10:53

What do folk think about the possibility that AVM will commit to paying a dividend at the results (in calender year to March 2005)?. It must be a possibility given that a) they will have no debt, b) they are pumping out cash.

I remember being at a meeting with them 2 years ago when the subject was broached and they seemed very keen to move to this was profitability was established.

[shirishg] 21/6/2004 10:42

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[shirishg] 20/6/2004 20:55

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[shirishg] 20/6/2004 20:47

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[mieke] 20/6/2004 14:57

I might also add that the arguement concerning inflation and the impact on interest rates sems to be US-centric. Inflationary pressures are building worldwide, particularly in Europe. The ECB seems even more inflation sensitive than the Fed judging by its past refusal to lower rates. Euro rates are likely to start increasing soon which should remove some of the effect of the US rate increases by supporting the Euro against the $........and it is this ratio which seems to be the chief driver of POG at the minute. Since the Eurozone does not have the trade deficit problems of the US it is difficult to see a sustained fall in the Euro:$ rate under such circumstances.

[pecker1] 20/6/2004 14:50

BB Muppet,

Adam Hamilton is producing some very informative articles - the one you posted is a very good explanation for people who keep hearing but suspect there is something not right about the conventional argument trotted out by Wall street, Bis et al, that rising US interest rates will boost the US $. Economists usually add the caveat "all things being equal". What Hamilton shows is that they are certainly not equal and that relationships between variables break down when real interest rates are less than zero.

What he could have also said but didn't is that an "aggressive" rise in US interest rates could, first, kill the refi market, and second knock the stockmarket. Both of these factors will lead to a reduction in consumer spending that will stop the "recovery" and reduce coprporate profitability, hence further weakening the stockmarket.

Higher interest rates could also stop if not burst the housing bubble, leading to a further reduction in spending because of the (reduced) wealth effect. All of these effects reduce the value of US $ assets - stocks, bonds, property. Foreign holders faced with such losses are likely to bail out hence weakening the US $. Aggressive rate rises will only compound the problem. Hence the easiest option for the FED is to let inflation rip and stay behind the curve with real interest rates less then zero. This of course screws foreign holders of US debt but as the Americans will no doubt say, "couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of people". All great powers throughout history have done exactly the same to escape impossible debt repayments. The US will be no different.

That's why gold, IMHO, is a no-brainer investment.Soon we shall see who is right but I think the wait will be in months not years.

[biswell] 20/6/2004 08:18

BB

Re my trend down remark

Why the AVM SMA(8) SMA(16) SMA(34) SMA(42) chart silly, you know the one that now shows the SMA lines opening up and trending steeply downwards just like back in Feb, check it out and don't fudge.

Re the recent successes against Al Queda by the US and the Saud Family, it seems evident that though the US is loathe to put troops back in Saudi just yet(don't rule it out), they are providing good intellegence via satallite imagery of where tha baddies are.

The timing of the US strike to coincide with the Saudi strike against Al Queda is no coincidence methinks.

What do you think the gold community will make of it?
Any ideas?
B