Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[zengas] 10/7/2004 11:27

The berg.

FILTERED

[theberg] 10/7/2004 11:03

Corrientes, I do not agree at all.
You can not ignore this stuff, pretend it is not happenning, sorry.
Sitting in your safe European Home ignoring it whilst people are being blown to smithereens with the proceeds of your tax payers money is tantamount to cowardice I am afraid.

I am glad you reacted with anger, it showed you had woken up!

The reality of war is not very pleasant is it?

[corrientes] 10/7/2004 10:15

What'll be your next anti-whatever it is theme, for there are an infinite number of them.Go on the 'political' threads please, for all you will do here is to create the opposite result of what you're trying to achieve ie antagonism. If you're a successor to the old BBM, the mad genes have moved forward a generation.

[theberg] 10/7/2004 09:41

No, to get people to realise what is going on, ignoring the situation just is not an option any longer if you realise what these lunatics are trying to achieve.

[goml] 10/7/2004 09:36

theberg,

If you're going to post pictures of serious injuries on a shares BB then at least have the courtesy not to be cryptic about the reasons!

Are you asking for contributions to a particular charity?
Are you trying to promote anti-western political views?
Are you trying to promote anti-war views generally?

I don't know. What ARE you trying to say?

This is a genuine enquiry and if it is met with either another cryptic message or sarcasm or anything other than a coherent reasonable explanation then I'll just have to add you to my filter list. I realise that is not a particularly scary prospect (it's not ment to be), it's just the only way I can ensure that I have the 'power' and not you. I look forward very much to your response.

[mieke] 09/7/2004 19:55

Indeed - one place not to be is in SA miners. See:


The above is one reason SA producers must be scouring the world for earning enhancing assets which are not Rand exposed. This is what got folk excited about Harmony and Oxus, and it would be madness if these operators were not running the rule over a clean lean AVM.........
Well a couple of pence a day until results will see us past 80p. I confess to feeling unduly optimistic........

[holdontight] 09/7/2004 18:59

I think you may be quite accurate with your call. 80p is of course completely useless, as below previous high at optimum point of good news. We need 80p ahead of results and 120p plus after. Mind you, I still wouldn't be a seller at 120p. I may offload a few at £2. Buet even then, you are either in or out of this POG bull run and where better place is there to put your money ??

[jeddah jo] 09/7/2004 18:08

Hope BB Muppet comes back to join in our day in the sun.

[zaky] 09/7/2004 16:27

My (serious) prediction for results + 1 week = 80p. anyone else?? it's strike it lucky time - winner gets my 'London Underground kicks ass' mouse mat

[pecker1] 09/7/2004 14:44

Zengas,

Yes, way too cheap IMHO. At the last AGM the BOD sought and gained approval for the right to issue new shares so that they could speedily take advantage of any acquisition opportunities that might arise. As the shareprice climbs up towards 100p, they may well feel they can make a value-enhancing buy without diluting existing shareholders. So we may be talking about more than 300k oz pa and that's another reason why I don't think Holdontight is being unrealistic.

[zengas] 09/7/2004 14:02

A director added 50k at 60.5p two months ago when he already held 5.2m shares.
WHY?

Well, this is way too cheap at £70m. 2 operating mines producing 180,000 oz/yr + (3rd on stream 50,000 oz/yr + in 3 months). = 230-250,000+ ozs over next 12 months. Estimating to break production target of over 300,000 ozs per yr in 12 months.

Resrves to be upgraded.
Roughly £15m in the bank 6 months ago.
New mine (Lanut) coming on stream already financed from share placing.
Reserves to be upgraded.
Generating large amounts of cash/in profit.
Debt virtually eliminated 6 months ago.
2 further mines Taror & Chore could be scheduled for development.
Substantially and seriously undervalued to others in the sector. (If it carried the same valuation as others we should already be £1.20+ per share at the moment excluding the new mine at Lanut due on stream for production inn 3 months.
Ripe for acquistion target at this price/production/reserves/no debt ratio would be £2+ share minimum.

Earlier year high over 80p based on gold price circa $350- $370 and producing 130,000 oz/per yr. Gold price still courting $400 an ounce.

DYOR Imho but way too cheap at 68p a share.

[holdontight] 09/7/2004 14:01

Wolstencroft....I assume that is taking POG at the $375 level ? If every $10 increase in POG adds 0.7p EPS, and then assuming 2005 ave POG of $430, this almost 4p EPS. On a multiple of 15x, that's another 60p on share price; taking 30x, another 120p. You are way to conservative at 150p. More like £3 !!

[wolstencroft] 09/7/2004 13:55

Well Avocet is my biggest holding of any stock ever - but that is more to do with a limited downside than infinite upside. Not that 100p is unreasonable.

I think the price will rise toward 100p as Penjom's life is increased and their ZGC ventures (Taror and Chore I think) produce revised feasibility studies. Also if they can get 100% ownership instead of 49 that would be good.

I think that once they have >5 years reserves at 250K attributable ounces per annum productions, they will be worth about £150M, thats about 150p I think. Perhaps that will happen in about 1 year to 18 months from now.

Just my guesses

[holdontight] 09/7/2004 13:00

mieke.....it's not too late to add if we are headed where you and I think we are headed...also, £1 is way too cheap. Fairer value would be £2. And not overpriced even then !

[holdontight] 09/7/2004 12:55

First hurdle at 66.5p taken, now need 71.5p

[zaky] 09/7/2004 12:45

Just done some more quick rolling analysis while the information pours in..my latest verdict;

i can say that with probability of 1 , AVM will hit £1 at some point over an infinite future time horizon.

[mieke] 09/7/2004 12:28

Yes its certainly starting to look interesting now, wish I had more. Still 7 trading days to results so maybe w e will be north of 75p by then?

[niggle] 09/7/2004 12:25

I think in TA terminology this is officially a 'breakout'! lol

[giant steps] 09/7/2004 08:55

Info for Avocet Investors - more cash in the pot

Tiberon Agrees to Acquire Controlling Interest
in Panasqueira Tungsten Mine From Avocet Mining

Completion of transaction is scheduled for 28 July 2004

[richgit] 08/7/2004 23:00

I`ll be on holiday with my Family on results day,and after only taking 1 week last year my Wife is insistant that I leave the share market behind,as Im supposed to relax.There will be no internet cafes and I`ve agreed to leave all my Computer type Gizmos behind,and even the phone I`ll be taking will be the most basic.
Does anyone know if any Company offers a generalised verbal summary of Company
results via a phone in.

PS Noted Biswell this morning on the Petrel board (Pet)

[mieke] 08/7/2004 21:42

Only pulling your leg HT, I value your thoughts. I am not by any means a dedicated chartist but there are plenty that are so its best to know what they are going to be looking at. 81p it is then.
Re: fundamentals - I have done nothing more than piece together the snippets of information the company have offered us in the last 6 months. It looks as though we may be doubly fortunate in that a rising POG will increase attention. Are we going to get the long delayed revaluation of AVM up to £1? I think there is now a 80% chance of it, particularly if, as I think they will, they announce that the new mine will produce 70,000oz from October onwards, with restated reserves of 750,000oz.........

[holdontight] 08/7/2004 20:25

OK, ok...the last high was 80p back in Jan, since when we have been in a downtrend. Makes sense to me, though I would place more store in increasing ave daily volume in an upward trend, than I would charts. As we currentrly don't have this, I don't believe the downtrend has been broken yet.
Still, if you have the Fundamentals as correct as you think you have, then why would you care what anyone else thinks ?

[zaky] 08/7/2004 19:56

Mieke - I arrived at the same figure as holdontight through astute and modified use of the Heinekenbergerschlurger Equation - hold on tight! I 'm gonna let rip...