Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[biswell] 30/6/2004 09:36

Summary:

1. The HUI Index follows a combination several long cycles including a 13-week cycle as well as 130-day, 192-day, 262-day, 318-day and 510-day cycles. In particular, the long-running 13-week cycle shows it was reinitialized in Feb 2000 which coincided with Fed-meeting involving gold sales. The low in the 13-week cycle (as well as other cycles) occurred in Aug 2000 and the HUI Index began a major rally.

2. A major downtrend is coming up for the HUI Index starting/after July 2004. It appears this downtrend may propagate through the remainder of 2004 leading to a broad bottom in the HUI Index in Nov/Dec 2004. You may wish to refrain from further gold stock purchases until this situation becomes clearer. It is dangerous to continue to invest in gold stocks at this point if these long cycles persist through the remainder of 2004. There may be a short (bear) rally in the HUI Index during Aug/Sept 2004 but the overall prediction is down.

3. The HUI Index is probably making its highs on the year. There is another major rally in the HUI Index coming in early to mid-2005 followed by a double top (currently predicted in March and June 2005). The (relative) bottom in 2005 is predicted to occur Sept 2005.

4. The 192-day cycle in the HUI Index is suspect as a real trading cycle – it has the largest amplitude but appears out of nowhere sometime in 1998. It started growing in May 1998 and has played a major role in the timing of the HUI Index (together with other cycles). This cycle is projected to bottom in Dec 2004 (leading to a Rally) and again in late Sept 2005. Unclear who is involved in the 192-day cycle growth at this point?

5. Gold Bugs should keep their cash dry at this point and consider avoiding further long-term speculation in gold stocks (exception may be Newmont off its 200 dma and we will take a future look at this particular bell-weather stock). A significant rally is in the offing in the HUI Index after Nov 2005 leading into 2006

6. Good News – Bad News. There is a coming major rally in the HUI Index but it is not this year. We are predicting the real major bull market in gold stocks will begin in late 2005 and many of the gold-producing stocks may never look back again after 2006.

The above is fair comment I feel.
B

[biswell] 30/6/2004 09:17

Don't seem fair to me
B

[goml] 30/6/2004 08:59

Biswell,

Interesting conclusion. You're saying that JS is secretly a gold bear!

I think you're way off the mark with that view. Sinclair is a rabid gold bull, FACT and end of story. He's far too vociferous and bitter about his views to be as disingenuous as you suggest.

However, I will concede that he might be wrong in his views. Afterall nothing in life is certain except death (and taxes!).

[biswell] 30/6/2004 07:26

Tuesday, June 29, 2004, 5:35:00 PM EST

The Attack of the Rotten Killer Tomatoes

Author: Jim Sinclair





Cool your tubes and relax. I am complimented that COT spends so much time on www.jsmineset.com. If you think an all out effort to depress the price of gold on June 29th is coincidence then you believe in fairy tales.



This is a clear reason why I must go smaller and private. I am thinking about commenting on fundamentals in the open but doing specific market analysis in a closed limited access club by password only assuming that this is technically possible.

I would retain the right of service, taking applications from the good folk. No charge of course. But if we are smaller and therefore less of a factor in the markets COT will tire of their constant effort to make the one trader who knows gold better than they do a smaller influence. I simply will become smaller but only for the reason of not inviting their charades in the marketplace.

I believe that I know the exact bottom and what gold will do thereafter but clearly if I state that to the many, COT will do everything possible to screw you up. I am here to teach you and not to hurt you. If you have used Trend Lines and Fibonacci those of you who are traders would have nailed COT's intentions almost to the penny.

Now if you really want to do a number on these COT pros all that is required is for every member of this Community to put 5% of their net liquid assets into gold itself in whatever form you wish. It was a slow taking of delivery by the Hunt Brothers of both silver and gold regularly and constantly that drove the pros to the wall the last time.

They are fighting us by writing paper gold. You can beat them by buying physical. The paper stands on the physical and if you do take physical you will strangle the paper. That is a fact of gold life in terms of the mechanics of the marketplace.

The Hunts never squeezed the futures market as they rolled from delivery month to delivery month in a most gentlemanly manner. I know because my clearing house was one of their brokers. However, what they skillfully and legally did was always to take a small delivery for their children every delivery month without fail and this little effort put the paper writer into the outhouse. The sooner the Community gets real, the sooner COT gets real.

The final answer to the Threat of the Rotten Killer Tomatoes:

Now if the good gold producers like Newmont and others would simply withhold production each time gold reacts they would significantly improve the price they receive for gold. Aluminum and copper producers do this but the management of many gold companies consists of youngsters who are accountants, attorneys and geologists who haven't a clue what gold is all about.

So you are the shareholders that made these lightweights stop hedging and saved your and their bacon. Now get cracking on withholding gold from the marketplace on each decline of $10 or more from any high and $500 will be here so quick you will not be able to see it.

I call on the best minds in the gold investment business to assist me in beating COT. John Embry is that person. All we need is producers to stop working against their stockholders and act to help rather than hurt gold. Other metal producers do this all the time and have rid themselves of what gold is peopled with - an active bear only interest.

You in the Gold Community who own the producers must put pressure on them NOW!

Now take my hand and stop fretting over gold because the COMEX crowd seeing stops with little demand below ran them and took advantage of you one more time. Ignore the Gold Geezers and other Trojan horse gold advisors who are in fact more of an enemy of gold than COT. Gold is going to $440 and $480 plus having reached $405 but not yet $410 in June. Come on, that was reasonably close coming up from $371 as a low regardless of how hard COT wants to hold my feet to the fire of their devious ways.

Rumor Control:

1/ Rising interest rates are part and parcel of a rising gold price. Should the increase in interest rates trail the increasing expectation of inflation six months forward at a time then gold will accelerate to the upside.

Please put a ¼ point increase in the Discount Rate into proper perspective versus other countries' short term interest rates.

USA 1%
Australia 5.25%
UK 4.5%
Euroland 2%
Canada 2%
Swiss 1%
Japan 0.15%

So what's the big deal about 1-¼ or 1-1/2 or 1-¾ or 2%? Inflation is going to 4% in 2005. So don't fall for the COT analysts financial TV interest rate versus inflation bull.

Let's not forget that once the US raises rates, the world will not be far behind which is
checkmate.

2/ The US Federal Budget deficit can not be financed without the destabilizing effect of massive liquidity injections from Japanese buying of US Treasuries. Last month foreign purchases of US Treasuries dropped 43% from the previous month. Even then, the majority of buyers were central banks in support of the US dollar. Purchases of corporate bonds dropped 45% as the purchase of agencies which had been almost non existent before (Freddie and Fanny types) improved for a resulting drop in foreign inflows from 80.6 billion to 76.2 billion. It is never the absolute number but the momentum that results in price. The US dollar is going lower and soon for fundamental reasons.

3/ By early summer the US monthly deficit will be running at $50 billion which I assure you is the breaking point of any dollar bull. I am not speaking about the US financial community that does bullish lip service concerning the US dollar but is only a minor presence in the dollar market. I am speaking about the big makers and shakers in the US dollar market. Early summer is on us so any idea that a rally in the US dollar might survive even mid-July is total hogwash due to fundamentals. If fundamentals run any market that market is certainly the US dollar market.

4/ How many of you read yesterday's New York times article, "Families, Deep in Debt, Bracing for the pain of Interest Rate Hikes." The increase in rates may well trail inflation but they are going to put a hurt on the heavily in debt consumer and those with adjustable rate mortgages and high priced (and going higher) consumer loans. The US personal savings rate is 2.2% which is disgraceful. No boom goes on forever and the second that financing runs short the bottom drops out so guess what? Rates will rise but the Fed will make money quite available at least through election time. Therefore STAGFLATION is the formula for the upcoming economic experience.

5/ Since Stagflation is the upcoming economic experience it is proper to compare the action of the US dollar to the last time the US experienced a major Stagflation business environment along with increasing costs of money. That was 1976 to the first quarter of 1980 during which the US dollar declined 8.2% from the inception of the event. That puts the US dollar at 82 and that is optimistic.

Conclusion:

Ignore the big shots on the COMEX and the over-the-hill gang of gold experts. The dollar is going lower not higher based on fundamentals. Therefore gold is going higher not lower based on fundamentals. My feeling is as you know $440 then $480 in the months of July and August

Biswell Conclusion:
Jim says don't panic Mr Mannering.
He is also preparing his exit
'This is a clear reason why I must go smaller and private. I am thinking about commenting on fundamentals in the open but doing specific market analysis in a closed limited access club by password only assuming that this is technically possible.'
B

[bill1] 29/6/2004 22:45

come on bring back the muppet.

[acko2001] 29/6/2004 22:16

Intrigued - what were all these posts that were removed?

[budevenwiser] 29/6/2004 16:15

Where's our Gollum he should have been here by now , tell him his tea's getting cold and golds down .

[thenry] 29/6/2004 15:49

RIP BB MUPPET LOL!

[budevenwiser] 29/6/2004 15:47

captain swing cheers mate sorted now

[tonyleongson] 29/6/2004 11:39

Yeah, what mieke said!

[mieke] 29/6/2004 11:35

oops I dont think these posts willlast long either. Stick to AVM and POG BBM

[shirishg] 29/6/2004 11:33

Post removed by ADVFN

[carntyne] 29/6/2004 11:26

Every religion hates every other religion. What's new ?

[shirishg] 29/6/2004 11:24

Post removed by ADVFN

[captain swing] 29/6/2004 09:11

Bud there are some instructions for streaming Java settings etc here

[budevenwiser] 29/6/2004 08:08

had to reformat the hard drive and install norton any kind soul give me link to java download and security settings cant get any prices tia

[mieke] 29/6/2004 07:38

LOLs corrintes, no I havent followed his posts elsewhere.BBM can get a bit, how shall we put this, erm ...exotic in his postings. Still I am sure he will re-emerge under a different pseudonym (isnt he AJ anyway?)

[corrientes] 29/6/2004 07:31

If you looked at some of his posts on other threads recently, it appeared to me anyway, that he'd flipped.

[richgit] 29/6/2004 00:13

Why has BB had posts removed??????????????

[holdontight] 28/6/2004 15:09

I don't buy all this T20 stuff. AVM is more of a buy on the news than runour stock

[shirishg] 28/6/2004 14:46

Post removed by ADVFN

[thenry] 28/6/2004 14:32

lol!
bis has disappeared as usual.

[mieke] 28/6/2004 14:22

Bis
could you give us an update on that gold short you took out at $396? Its just that my monitor shows gold above that value and climbing and I am concerned about your finances.....

given a 0.25% rise from the Fed is discounted I see no reason why after confirmation of such on Wednesday (allied to the fact that the baddies in iraq will be very angry they have been wrong footed) why POG cant test $410 by the end of the week......