Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[cjac39] 06/11/2020 20:07

You do need to separate what agi own vs av owned assets. The agi funds declaring x% in co X is meaningless to what is on bs of av as it could be in wp unit linked or entirely third party mandate

[1pencil] 06/11/2020 19:39

..maybe they could buy 1.4% of themselves instead?

[cjac39] 06/11/2020 19:10

It certainly does highlight ridiculous low valuations of decent U.K. plc assets. Should attract more people back into U.K. mkt I would think.

[1pencil] 06/11/2020 17:21

Small beans perhaps although Aviva appear to benefit directly from RSA bid with a 1.4% equity holding (8.3 declaration).

Given there will be one less UK insurer listed once complete, its possible a higher weighting will be given to Aviva (he said clutching at a bunch of eco paper straws :)

[spud] 06/11/2020 15:34

Bankers set for fees bonanza as takeover frenzy hits the City, with RSA deal sparking takeover speculation over Aviva and Hiscox



The boom in London takeovers and fees for investment banks gathered pace as a £7 billion bid for insurance giant RSA was followed today by deals in the property, food and tech sectors.

RSA’s takeover deal last night sparked hopes of more deals in the insurance sector, driving up shares in Aviva and Hiscox.

Elsewhere, the Wellcome Trust’s investment arm snapped up property group Urban & Civic for £506 million and Mr Kipling cakes owner Premier Foods sold Hovis to private equity group Endless. Sportech, the betting technology firm behind The Tote, received a bid from a US hedge fund and cyber security giant Aveva launched a £2.84 billion rights issue to fund its $5 billion deal to buy America’s OSIsoft.

The wave of takeover interest in London firms is controversial, as some shareholders fear their companies are being bought on the cheap.

Some feel the RSA offer undervalues the business, and Sportech rejected its suitor this morning.

G4S is fighting off a takeover effort from GardaWorld for the same reasons, while McCarthy & Stone’s board has come under fire for accepting a takeover offer some say undervalues the retirement homes builder. McCarthy investor Royal London has gone public with its concerns,

But the merger trend looks set to continue. That has underpinned share prices and triggered big fees for City banks and advisers working on them.

The RSA deal will trigger millions of pounds in fees for bankers as the deal is complex, involving two bidders who will break the business up.

Robey Warshaw, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America are advising RSA. Barclays is advising Canadian insurer Intact, which is taking over the Canada, UK and International operations. Morgan Stanley is advising Denmark’s Tryg, which will take on the Swedish and Norwegian businesses.

Analysts said Aviva’s advisers at Citigroup and JPMorgan Cazenove would likely now be standing by for potential approaches for parts or all of the business.

Aviva is in the process of exiting overseas operations under new chief executive Amanda Blanc and recently sold its Singapore arm although Blanc has ruled out calls in some quarters for it to break up its life and general insurance units.

On RSA, analysts such as Shore Capital have said the bid price is fair.

spud

[cjac39] 06/11/2020 15:25

1rob I don’t know about quantum but mandg divi is one of the more aggressive payout ratios. Pru funds continues doing pretty well but retail outflows are also continuing from what I can tell. Might. E some decent longevity offsets but I am bit cautious about value sh share of with profits as that’s top slice of risky assets. They’ve set some v punchy targets on payouts which I historically thought might be a challenge and they’ve got Ascentric to sort out which could cause them problems. However it’s around 12% DY so room for it to fall back a bit and still be v attractive. I’d really like to see AV take them out if CMA would allow it

[dr biotech] 06/11/2020 14:24

It’s in the standard. Could just be a load of tosh of course to generate interest


Analysts said Aviva’s advisers at Citigroup and JPMorgan Cazenove would likely now be standing by for potential approaches for parts or all of the business.

Aviva is in the process of exiting overseas operations under new chief executive Amanda Blanc and recently sold its Singapore arm although Blanc has ruled out calls in some quarters for it to break up its life and general insurance units.

[gary1966] 06/11/2020 14:15

wba1,

Sorry only just got back in.

Thank you for taking the time to reply to my question in post 5040.

ATB

[imagining] 06/11/2020 14:03

With a NAV of c475p,I would say the board should only listen to offers starting from £7 per share. That would still be at a p/e of about 12 compared to the RSA p/e of 21.

[jordaggy] 06/11/2020 13:17

Analysts said Aviva’s advisers at Citigroup and JPMorgan Cazenove would likely now be standing by for potential approaches for parts or all of the business.

[1robbob] 06/11/2020 10:56

Re Investment Research

On each company I used to make up 2 piles, Sale recommendations and Buy recommendations
.....I only bothered to read those in the smallest pile!!!, ie the contra thinkers

[garycook] 06/11/2020 10:43

1robbob,Expecting a 12p Dividend in May for MNG.Giving FY 18p.But things could change it with Covid situation !

[mo123] 06/11/2020 10:37

Aviva jumped 2.6% early on to the top of the FTSE 100 index after German peer Allianz reported an unexpected rise in quarterly net profit.

[1robbob] 06/11/2020 10:37

cjac3
I would appreciate your view on M&G dividends looking forward
I see they paid:
A Final of 11.92p for 2019 in May 2020 and an Interim of 6.0p for 2020 in September 2020

[1robbob] 06/11/2020 09:52

wba1
For my sins I have many many years of experiance of City Investment Analysts especially Investment Banks /Stockbrokers. The primary aim of their Anaysis is to create business - share transactions or Corporate
If a Bank is interested in doing Corporate business with a Company, it is very unlikely to ever post a Sell recommendation!!
Stockbrokers are unlikely to ever post a Hold recommendation as it would not attract any transactional business.
In setting a target price, it needs to be sufficiently divergent from the current price so as to make a transaction worthwhile but no so hugely divergent as to be a hostage to fortune

You have it....just like Estate Agents!!

[wba1] 06/11/2020 08:52

Re target prices from analysts; I have always had doubts about anything produced by the investment banks and others producing such prices since (some years ago) I had to explain basic insurance terms to a visiting analyst and take them through simple actuarial ways of projecting performance such as triangulation. If the people setting targets are this ignorant of insurance (they may understand accounts and non-insurance businesses perfectly) then their targets have little if any value.

[uppompeii] 06/11/2020 08:48

Shame Aviva never receives interest.

[wba1] 06/11/2020 08:33

Interesting question about what the RSA bid means for exit prices of Aviva units being sold. I am not sure it means much at all. It is very clear that the RSA bidders have taken very different views of the RSA business value. £4.2bn for £1.8bn GWP of Scandi business (minus half of Denmark). £3bn for £4.6bn GWP of UK and Canadian business (plus half of Denmark). It is very obvious that most of the excess value is driven by the Scandi business which has consistently reported COR in the 80s.

What this says to me is that bidders are prepared to pay a very high price for business which has consistently produced excellent results (and fits with an existing business). Whilst the Aviva units being sold are perfectly good businesses none really matches up to the reported RSA Scandi numbers (which, as I said, I had disbelieved). So any read across to Aviva unit values is likely to be inappropriate.

The other (and more significant) issue for Aviva is the value of long term business which is not relevant to the RSA bid. Most of the Aviva value is on that side.

[barbar7619] 06/11/2020 08:14

Hope you all filled your boots. Very cheap and time to sit back and watch the profits rise :)