Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[wba1] 06/11/2020 08:52

Re target prices from analysts; I have always had doubts about anything produced by the investment banks and others producing such prices since (some years ago) I had to explain basic insurance terms to a visiting analyst and take them through simple actuarial ways of projecting performance such as triangulation. If the people setting targets are this ignorant of insurance (they may understand accounts and non-insurance businesses perfectly) then their targets have little if any value.

[uppompeii] 06/11/2020 08:48

Shame Aviva never receives interest.

[wba1] 06/11/2020 08:33

Interesting question about what the RSA bid means for exit prices of Aviva units being sold. I am not sure it means much at all. It is very clear that the RSA bidders have taken very different views of the RSA business value. £4.2bn for £1.8bn GWP of Scandi business (minus half of Denmark). £3bn for £4.6bn GWP of UK and Canadian business (plus half of Denmark). It is very obvious that most of the excess value is driven by the Scandi business which has consistently reported COR in the 80s.

What this says to me is that bidders are prepared to pay a very high price for business which has consistently produced excellent results (and fits with an existing business). Whilst the Aviva units being sold are perfectly good businesses none really matches up to the reported RSA Scandi numbers (which, as I said, I had disbelieved). So any read across to Aviva unit values is likely to be inappropriate.

The other (and more significant) issue for Aviva is the value of long term business which is not relevant to the RSA bid. Most of the Aviva value is on that side.

[barbar7619] 06/11/2020 08:14

Hope you all filled your boots. Very cheap and time to sit back and watch the profits rise :)

[eurofox] 06/11/2020 08:06

well that made all those "added again" transactions worth it

[salver2] 06/11/2020 07:56

Aviva pre tax profits forecast 2.6 Billion for next year-RSA 663 million -in that basis ( I know it’s a crude valuation ) -Avivas takeover price should be about 28 billion-about 7 pounds a share ( current price 2.71)

[gary1966] 06/11/2020 07:55

How does the RSA valuation make the prices for the units we are selling look? Are we selling too cheap based on this latest development?

[dr biotech] 06/11/2020 07:35

The RNS feed doesn’t seem to be working on here today. RSA have added more info about the bid, nothing particularly interesting to my untrained eye though. Just hope we see more interest in unlocking value here.

In RSAs results yesterday they did refer to paying the dividend for 2019. That info seems to have been lost in the other news.

[wba1] 05/11/2020 22:49

I understand the logic of the RSA bid; RSA lack scale to compete and the bidders have worked together to strengthen their own business. What amazes me is the price. I agree with cjac that RSA is a bit of a dog - at least in the UK. But the Scandi operations always looked so much better that I had assumed there must be something lurking under the surface. Seems I was wrong and should have believed the numbers since £4.2bn of the £7.2bn is for Sweden and Norway (plus half of Denmark). But on this basis Aviva is worth at least 600p a share for a bidder (although that is, like RSA, more likely to be a partnership bid if it ever happens).

[spud] 05/11/2020 22:01

They've not exactly helped their image perception in the Market by reneging on a promised and committed to dividend....spud

[salver2] 05/11/2020 21:44

I think a lot of people can’t understand it. For my penny’s worth I think the opportunity for bargains have never been greater - I hold an awful lot of this share bought in ranges from over 4 pounds to around the 2.30 range-what I’ve found in the stock market these days is fundamentals on a certain time horizon count for zilch as all the computer trading ignores all this . The Uk stock market is woefully undervalued. Take Macarthy and Stone they fell to 40 p in March and now have been taken over by at 1.18 with everyone whining that they’ve been taken out on the cheap - well who’s fault is that - I hold a lot of Crest Nicholson shares which I bought averaging around 1.90 last month on no news they could be bought for around 1.65 they are now 50 to 60 percent up on the month - I knew they were doing ok as you can count how many houses they are selling on their website ( a bit anorakish I know but any analyst could do this with an hour to spare ( as soon as investors chronicle said sell at 1.90 Ireally started buying ( truly hopeless analysis by some teenager ( my daughter used to write articles for the racing post - she’d never been to a horse race in her life and she admits she knows nothing about the subject)The thrust of the point is that even to a moron 2 pounds something for Aviva is the wrong price, most of us on this board know this and when this get sold or eventually gets to it’s true worth there will be a gnashing of teeth - there is a well known expression it’s called Hidden in plain Sight- The value here ready to be unlocked is so obvious but maybe not to the computer algorithms

[mountpleasant] 05/11/2020 21:37

I read somewhere, its the most hated share in the FTSE100.

[cjac39] 05/11/2020 21:35

Why does history matter? I’ve invested over past 12 months based on what I think is supremely undervalued collection of businesses and not once in that decision did I look back at historic performance. It’s entirely irrelevant to my inv decision

[linton5] 05/11/2020 21:20

I just can't get my head around what's wrong with this companies performance compared to the rest major dissapointment years n years of it

[linton5] 05/11/2020 21:17

I knew this would eventually happen in the insurance sector but was preying for aviva as you know to be taken out lol,well done to rsa shareholders lucky 🦉ggers

[1robbob] 05/11/2020 20:16

Lets not get over excited. If anyone was eyeing AV they will undoubtedly put their checkbook away until the RSA excitement has calmed down.
On the plus side if the Board ever needed reminding of their vulnerability they know now. I am sure the Institutions reminded them after the Tulloch disaster. AB knows time is not on her side
Could be fun here on

[cjac39] 05/11/2020 19:45

It’s curious to me as I’d always thought rsa was bit of a dog. But I’m not so good on non life.

My great hope is AV shrink back and buy mandg. Incredible synergy story. Otherwise I hope third point or similar get stuck into them. They’re prob too big for PE unfort and PRA would hate it

[whatsup32] 05/11/2020 19:18

Re-rating Aviva may be in order, can anyone see Aviva making a play for a British insurer.

Should be interesting from now on.

[carpingtris] 05/11/2020 18:32

Could there also be a chance that now RSA (if the deal goes ahead) have been taken out that some of there investors now park the cash in AV. might also give a boost to the share price