Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[1pencil] 23/10/2020 08:27

There's still a lot of uncertainty about what with;

- US circus in full flow

- Covid II

- Negative interest rates

- Climate change/economic impact

Give the above, AV. feels relatively (*relative to what I hear you ask) safe although not immune by any means.

* relative to many other FTSE companies..

[pol123] 22/10/2020 18:09

Can see AV trading between 270 - 300 until Nov update. If we get a good update + divi news I can see us clearing £3 and move to a new range (baring any melt downs) PE of less than 5 is just to cheap and expect AV to move towards £4 over the next 12 months
Some posters are negative on AV, but with the company being in rude health all things considered. I see this as a great period to be adding and thats just what I have been doing.....

[cyberian] 22/10/2020 13:11

Boy, I was sweating a lot first thing eurofox, but feeling slightly happier now. I think that there have been some encouraging and well informed/balanced comments on this BB. Some of those comments certainly motivated me to add late yesterday. It does appear to me that a Brexit deal will happen despite my own doubts as to the direction HMG has taken. It makes sense to reach a compromise by the EU, as I cannot see how HMG will be able to afford any support monies to certain sectors with the huge funds accumulating to cover Covid-19. The cupboard will be pretty well exhausted of funds.

[1robbob] 21/10/2020 18:46

cjac39. It does look eminently do-able
M&G Market Cap circa £4.5bn and Aviva £11bn.
Presumably lots of loose holders of M&G as the stock came as a scrip from Pru
Given the scale of potential AV asset sales, AV could bid in cash depending on Balance Sheet gearing of M&G
.....presumabley that would give the AV EPS a big kick

[cjac39] 21/10/2020 18:31

Yes 1rob. Aviva investors is decent size but has less external mandate than mandg. Pru uk life biz would slot into aviva nicely as it’s mainly now Pru funds as sold annuity biz so no competition concerns. Whether you spin out asset mgr into new plc is up for debate but synergies would be incredible between these two. Snr mgmt at mandg I don’t rate that highly and asset mgmt staff are turning over so basically aviva could take them out

[pol123] 21/10/2020 18:23

1robbob - I am also expecting growth in remaining markets not an ever shrinking business. Also special divis for the sold assets. I will give them until Nov update

[1robbob] 21/10/2020 18:19

cjac39
I assume you mean M&G Investors + Aviva Investors = 1 x Investment Maagement PLC
and
M&G Insurance (aka Pru UK) + Aviva Insurance Life & GI = 1 x Insurance Co PLC

As always in these situation...whose Management comes out on top???

[cjac39] 21/10/2020 18:11

And spud, programmed quant funds that treat insurers as levered beta plays

One of the problems with aviva is its regulated status and the regulatory creep. The icas regime cured that for a while and hence priv equity got involved and things like phnx came about. S2 and post gfc reg regime have put that back but maybe post Brexit the winds turn.

Scot widows is a bit of a dog. I looked over it once before and the wp funds and gtees are all bit crazy which is why they still own it I suspect. Breaking m and g into 2 would make more sense

[1robbob] 21/10/2020 18:00

Forget 'Asset Strippers' and 'White Knights' they have had years to
have a go at Aviva and no action has occured.

The change of Chair, CEO and Non-Execs has not occured by accident or by some
'Damascus' moment of the Board. It must have occured by the combination
of the minority Directors and Institutional shareholders insisting on change
at a far greater pace than that AT proposed.

The Dividend situation is to a large extent the result of BoEs un-necessary interferance.
....This type of interference could well be why 3rd Parties have walked past!!

In the real world. Forget the possibility of AV being considered any form of Growth Stock...none of us will live so long!!

All we ask as shareholders is that OUR management extract a good return from OUR assets and sell those where they can't and pay a dividend at a sensible ratio of profits and cash generated. Personally I suspect that an EPS of circa 50p is possible from the proposed retained businesses and this would support a dividend of 25p(ish)

A question to the wise on this BB
As AV becomes more and more a UK only business...as is Lloyds Bank!!!
Would there be any merit in Scottish Widows/Aviva takeover/merger?

[spud] 21/10/2020 17:41

The major constituents of the DOW are tech stocks whilst ours are boring (supposedly safe) traditional stocks like oil, pharmaceuticals, banks, insurance and builders.

Tech is flavour of the decade whilst oil ect isn’t. Chuck in a shake of Brexit and voila!

spud

[dope007] 21/10/2020 16:39

What truly amazes me is the US had recovered all COVID losses while the FTSE is still 1500 pts below pre COVID levels and still tanks when the US has a minor pullback. The FTSE always under performs the US mkts but this last 6 months has been utterly ridiculous

[pol123] 21/10/2020 16:38

AB will need to pull her finger out and unlock value quicker. AVs share price performance continues to slip. Expected AV to be well North of £3 by now. Divi news + disposal news + roadmap to growth. The more the share price falls the less they will pay in divi on a yield basis
At what point do we become a target for asset strippers...

[cyberian] 21/10/2020 16:16

Agree...hope our confidence is rewarded.

[eurofox] 21/10/2020 14:41

added at 274.98 - seems churlish not to

[dope007] 21/10/2020 13:28

Lols at this fiasco of a mkt

[cjac39] 21/10/2020 11:53

thats good news. Jim M did a good job at Phnx. the other chap looks v sensible as well given that part of the challenges facing any large fin services business is the digital journey alongside open banking and fund management coming together. they screwed up their replatforming a lot in aviva investors so i suspect they thought they needed help.

[spud] 21/10/2020 11:35

Aviva plc ("Aviva" or the "Company") announces the appointment of Mohit Joshi and Jim McConville as Independent Non-Executive Directors of the Company with effect from 1 December 2020.Jim and Mohit bring significant experience in retail financial services and operational and IT transformation to the Board. Jim was previously Group Finance Director of Phoenix Group, where he was responsible for all aspects of the Group's financial strategy and management and during which he led the transition programme bringing Phoenix and Standard Life Assurance together. Prior to that he was Chief Financial Officer of Northern Rock from 2010-2012, and prior to that worked for Lloyds TSB Group (now Lloyds Banking Group plc) in a number of senior finance and strategy related roles. Jim is currently a Non-Executive Director of Tesco Bank.Mohit is a President of Infosys, a global leader in next-generation digital services and consulting. He heads the Financial Services, Healthcare and Life Sciences business verticals for the company and is the Chairperson for EdgeVerve, their Software subsidiary. Mohit joined Infosys in 2000 after an initial career in Banking and has over 24 years of professional experience working across the US, India, Mexico, and Europe.Jim will assume the role of Chair of the Customer, Conduct and Reputation Committee and will become a member of the Audit, Risk and Nomination and Governance Committees. Mohit will become a member of the Risk and Nomination and Governance Committees.spud

[p0pper] 21/10/2020 07:48

On Bloomberg early this morning, UK banks urging UK Gov to allow them to reinstate divi's

[spud] 20/10/2020 16:00

Fitch Affirms Aviva plc at IFS 'AA-'; Outlook Stable

Fitch Ratings - London - 19 Oct 2020: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Aviva Plc's (Aviva) core insurance subsidiaries' Insurer Financial Strength (IFS) Ratings at 'AA-' (Very Strong) and Aviva's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A+'. The Outlooks are Stable.

spud

[adelwire2] 20/10/2020 13:00

Ooh for a special dividend!

[hhhold2] 20/10/2020 09:19

This is from Evenig Std,






Insurance company shares should gain after the Financial Times reported the government was looking to ease EU regulations after Brexit.

Insurers have long complained that rules known as Solvency II have added too many restrictions to the amount of policyholders' money they can invest in long term projects such as infrastructure.

While intended to make insurers more financially safe, they actually prevent them taking benign risks that would benefit the UK economy, insurers have long warned.

[p0pper] 20/10/2020 07:45

UBS just announced good results and re-instating divi in November and a $1.5b dollar buyback

[cjac39] 20/10/2020 07:43

UK government signals post-Brexit changes to insurance rules

FT article.

discusses removing risk margin which would be very sensible but also flexing rules to allow annuity books to invest in infrastructure. former is easy to do. latter would involve quite some change to current insistence on liquid, rated assets with strict cashflow matching.

all positive though

[igoe104] 19/10/2020 15:43

Been adding a load today, any positive Divi announcement will give the S/P a good kick start....