Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[eurofox] 26/10/2020 10:26

the action looks more like a temporary short squeeze

[mountpleasant] 26/10/2020 10:19

No news, yet AV. is rising.
Im suspicious of these price moves.

[1robbob] 26/10/2020 10:10

cjac39
ergo - Perhaps it might dawn on one of the potential buyers for France that they might as well buy the whole shooting match!!!

[eurofox] 26/10/2020 09:03

which idiots tried to go short first thing today?

[cjac39] 25/10/2020 21:07

it doesnt really matter. if they sell fr its like 20% of earnings for 35% of mcap. its so cheap its absolutely mental. maybe it even trades down that week. stick with it, i know its been a dog for years but eventually value comes out. personally this is my biggest holding as i know its super misvalued. ive been investing in insurance companies for years and this is cheapest highest quality most mispriced thing ive ever seen.

[gutterhead] 25/10/2020 19:03

Full of corporate political passengers waiting to pick up pension

[gutterhead] 25/10/2020 19:02

This co needs some brutality

[jordaggy] 25/10/2020 18:56

£2.78

[waterloo01] 25/10/2020 18:44

Each of the options be it used to reduce debt, pay special divi or M&A all add to the value in different ways, although while rates remain low, debt is probably less a priority, so a mix of M&A and special divi would be ideal. What's in the price?

[cjac39] 25/10/2020 18:44

Buy m and g

[cjac39] 25/10/2020 18:30

My personal favourite would be but m and g. Otherwise pension buyouts in U.K. easily earned 14% roc

[whatsup32] 25/10/2020 16:58

cjac .’use money in much better ways’ ,

Can I ask in which way ? Reduce debt , extra dividends, buy another co ?

[whatsup32] 25/10/2020 16:55

1 billion in the right direction

[dr biotech] 25/10/2020 16:47

Whilst I wouldn’t attach a lot of importance to it, that last article suggests a price of 3-4bn, whereas previous articles have stated 2-3bn.

[cjac39] 25/10/2020 16:16

I think selling is right thing. French regulators are a nightmare by all accounts and they could use the money in much better ways

[whatsup32] 25/10/2020 16:14

We argued here price bantered about a few weeks back was too low and that keeping French subsidiary may be the better option.

Good to see others are now joining in on the bidding and hopefully we get right price.

[dr biotech] 25/10/2020 14:32

My french is awful. More bidders the better, the price seems to be €3-4bn

Google translate says

Nervousness is mounting around the Aviva France sales project. The "privileged" negotiations initiated by the British insurance group to sell its French subsidiary to the tandem formed by the German insurance giant Allianz and the Bermudan insurer Athora , a subsidiary of the Apollo investment fund, expire at the end of October, from corroborating sources. A few days before the deadline, the unions of Aviva France and Afer, the powerful association of savings partner of the insurer, mobilize all their relays, including political, to trigger a barrage.

Other candidates are in ambush. The insurer Macif in the lead. If the French mutualist group has not been able to enter into discussions with Aviva, it is already working, according to our information, on a financing solution with Credit Suisse. The failure of its discussions with Matmut in 2016 did not get the better of its ambitions. Managed by the young Adrien Couret , the insurer shows a clear desire for development. This is evidenced by its merger with the Aésio group of mutuals , positioned in health and provident insurance .

Operation between 3 and 4 billion
With Aviva France, the heavyweight of automobile insurance would assert itself in non-life insurance for companies and would strengthen in life insurance. Contrary to other insurers, Afer's euro funds - these contracts offering an increasingly expensive capital guarantee with low rates - would not scare the mutualist, less under pressure to use their own funds. than a “capitalist221; insurer. Other assets of Macif, it has the support of the unions and its project would correspond to the expectations of Afer. However, an operation estimated between 3 and 4 billion euros remains to be financed.


Another tandem is eyeing the file. According to our information, the British investment fund CVC Capital Partners, which bought the Lyon insurance broker April last year , and Generali have joined forces to prepare an offer. In this configuration, the Italian insurer would take 30% of a holding company absorbing Aviva France, while taking over certain non-life insurance assets. The former boss of Aviva France, Philippe Maso, is advising the two candidates.

Afer in campaign against Athora
This potential opening of the game goes in the direction of Gérard Bekerman. Decided to weigh in the process , the president of Afer ruled in mid-October in “Les Echos” that its 760,000 members would suffer “hell” if their economies were to be managed from “a regulatory or tax haven” like Bermuda. The name of Athora is not released , but the circumstantial partner of Allianz, who pushes his pawns in Europe, is clearly targeted because it is in Bermuda that his beachhead is domiciled.

This exit, implicitly addressed to the French supervisor (ACPR) who will have to give his agreement to the transfer, moved even in the ranks of the majority. On Wednesday, several deputies from En Marche wrote to the Minister of Finance, Bruno Le Maire, saying they were "worried" for the employment of the 4,500 employees of Aviva France, " the savings of our fellow citizens" and "the budget of the 'State' . Enough to satisfy the unions of Aviva France, who oppose " a dismantling of the whole in a purely financial perspective of short term" .

Worried politicians
The two financial partners are in fact considering a separation of the French activities of Aviva. Non-life insurance would be retained by Allianz, while Athora would take over Afer's savings activities and portfolio of 55 billion euros. Largely made up of life insurance in euros, it is also known to have little margin and particularly generous for savers.

In a scenario, agitated like a red rag by its detractors, Athora could find its account there by managing the business in “run off” or extinction , with a very reduced cost structure. The subject is closely followed on the market, even if some doubt the real possibility of splitting Aviva France as its agents work with Afer. Athora can count on Thomas Stoddard, its financial director recruited at Aviva at the end of 2019. And also on the pressure which increases on Amanda Blanc, the new boss of the British group, to demonstrate the refocusing that she announced in early August .

Anne Drif and Solenn Poullennec

[cjac39] 25/10/2020 13:44

Thank you

That talks about it being end of the month

[salver2] 25/10/2020 12:25

Put in Aviva Les Echos

[salver2] 25/10/2020 12:23

If you put into internet Aviva France news you should find it it was an article less than an hour ago

[cjac39] 25/10/2020 11:59

thanks salver - do you have a link you could post?

26th nov is the current estimated reporting date so i would imagine they would be very happy if this coincided with that but its so material they would have to report it the minute they signed an SPA.

does anyone know anything about change of control in France and how long that takes? for a UK insurance company its minimum 3-6months particularly a larger acqn with private equity involved

[salver2] 25/10/2020 11:49

The headline reads Aviva France- La Macif,Generali et Cvc en embuscade face a Allianz et Athora.- which roughly translates as La Macif,Generaliand Cvc face off in an ambush againstAllianz and Athora

[salver2] 25/10/2020 11:42

News in the French press about the imminent takeover of Aviva France ( Les Echos) it seems a few other combatants have entered the fray - should be an announcement in a week or two- couldn’t understand the article fully with my dodgy O level French!

[eurofox] 24/10/2020 11:18

agreed spud, this is an exemplary board.