Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[whatsup32] 15/10/2020 19:34

Results in three weeks . Let’s hope positive on Dividends and some update on sell offs.
If it looks like sale of France and Singapore is going to be a long drawn out affair , AB may be conservative With dividends.

[jubberjim] 15/10/2020 18:59

I think it is because like other like minded ethical companies
When they declare a dividend they pay that dividend

[essentialinvestor] 15/10/2020 15:42

Call them before renewal.

[wba1] 15/10/2020 15:24

hi cjac. Apologies, I misunderstood. Pure rebates are rare (Admiral). LV offered a hybrid rebate (you needed to qualify such as being furloughed). But most insurers just took the approach of offering rebates if you call them with a change of risk (such as reduced mileage). In essence this is no different to before Covid in that policyholders could get rebates for risk changes then, although they were usually vehicle or address changes in those days. The other material change is that I believe some if not most insurers are waiving the usual admin fee for risk change. In the past if a risk change produced a £100 rebate the customer may have got £80 after an admin fee. I think they would currently get the £100 with most insurers.

The FCA huffs and puffs but I have not heard any suggestion that insurers are changing behaviour for that reason (although the admin waiver may be a sop to them).

ps; I should have added that some insurers such as Axa and Zurich are providing automatic rebates in Ireland but not here. Perhaps the FCA are less assertive than their counterparts.

[enormouswillie] 15/10/2020 14:23

Apart from Direct Line..that is UP...I wonder why

[spud] 15/10/2020 13:50

Everything being clobbered regardless. spud

[pvi1] 15/10/2020 13:27

Sold at 303 back in at 277. Can't beat all this uppy down stuff

[cjac39] 15/10/2020 13:03

thanks wba. i was thinking more about the return of premiums to policyholders as i understand has been happening this year. i was curious what was compelling insurers to do this as ive not seen policy wording for any of my personal non life that seems to have premium rebate mechanisms. thats why i was wondering whether it was the fca pushing them to do it or insurers feeling compelled to being seen to do the right thing partic if reinsurers were profit sharing but i take the point on XOL.

[wba1] 15/10/2020 10:56

hi cjac; checked quickly with a couple of contacts and they suggest rebates from reinsurers are non-existent. This makes sense as the vast majority of motor reinsurance is XOL on individual claims and the experience of claims over, say, £1m (or more likely £5/10m for bigger insurers) will not necessarily reflect attritional losses and clarity on large losses will take much longer to emerge. In those rare cases (and I do not know if there are any at present) where an insurer has reinsurance for the overall loss ratio I guess a rebate may be appropriate. What would be interesting would be to know what position is being taken between Munich Re and Admiral, as the Admiral model transfers 90% of the risk to Munich. Effectively this is a partnership rather than reinsurance, but I guess it may be smoothed out by the Admiral profit share agreement on the Munich share of the risk.

Certainly reinsurers can squirrel reserves. I have never looked at their reserving policies and I would expect reported claims to be fairly closely aligned with primary insurer estimates, but large losses typically come in later and take longer to develop reliable estimates than attritional losses. Consequently the potential to take a vast range of views on reserves for IBNR and general future development is considerable on such losses.

The potential for using reserves can probably best be seen from an incident of about 15 years ago where a senior actuary I knew was about to move company. He went on record via email to the CEO of the company he was leaving, saying that he believed the size of the reserves could not be justified and risked being seen as tax manipulation. The CEO concerned took him to one side and explained that the regulators were very concerned about reserving levels in insurers generally - but exclusively as to whether they were adequate. It had never been known for a regulator to raise concern about reserves being too high.

[hhhold2] 15/10/2020 09:06

topped back up with aviva again, thx MM's for more of these in the 279p!

can't believe my luck.

[cjac39] 15/10/2020 06:30

thanks wba. one thing i was curious about is how any premium rebating actually works in practice? is it pressure from fca or just down to boards deciding to rebate in synch with getting some rebate from reinsurers? can they squirrel reserves as a mechanism to reduce pressure on rebate? ive seen life bs marked under ifrs and you could fairly freely vary the risk discount rate to smooth tax outcomes for eg

[devonbeachbum] 14/10/2020 10:57

Have e-mailed the aviva shareholders address to notify them that under My Aviva I can't get an on-line Buildings quote added to my Contents policy. Should be relatively straightforward to get an annual figure even if they can't marry up renewal dates. Could be missing out on potential new business from existing customer base. Currently waiting for a reply.

[wba1] 14/10/2020 10:03

Some may have seen the trading statement from Sabre. As a single line motor insurer they are a good proxy for expected experience in the motor books of other insurers. Unfortunately they are playing games. I have caught up with a senior contact at Sabre and he tells me that they have deliberately positioned expectations at this time due to the uncertainty going forward. They do expect accident year loss ratio to be materially lower than usual (and to more than offset additional expenses) but will do as I have noted in the past - stuff the excess into reserves for the time being.

So take industry comments on motor insurance with a pinch of salt for the time being!

[hhhold2] 14/10/2020 09:19

bought a few back 289p

[thewheeliedealer] 13/10/2020 20:31

Hi all,

My mate Peter @Conkers3 and myself did a ‘Twin Petes Investing’ Podcast a few days ago and part of our discussion includes AV. (which I hold). We also chatted about loads of other Stocks and some Ideas for research, and the outlook for Markets and as usual a fair bit of educational stuff with regards to Investing.

Anyway, if you use Apple, Audioboom, Overcast or Spotify you can find it under the 'Conkers Corner' Channel (you want TPI Podcast 33) and you can find it on Soundcloud at the link below.

I hope you enjoy it and find it useful,

Cheers, WD
@wheeliedealer

[spcecks] 13/10/2020 18:52

Also happy adding to my holding at these prices.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 13/10/2020 17:43

Quite happy topping up.

[uppompeii] 13/10/2020 15:16

Only astute decision I've made this year was winding down UK holdings into cash and then putting more into Japan and US.But I didn't do it expecting the UK to recover as poorly as it has otherwise I'd have got rid of a lot more. Brexit overhang is really weighing the All Share down.

[bothdavis] 13/10/2020 11:42

Personally I believe the new bodies on the board are already having an effect. Like trying to turn a super tanker!!

[ftime] 13/10/2020 11:28

Bought some more at 2.863. Good news is coming, I'm just not sure when! Sooner the better.

[spud] 13/10/2020 11:19

Not forgetting that SLA have extended their buyback program taking circa 500k per day which is undoubtedly supporting the price. spud

[jubberjim] 13/10/2020 10:53

The share will continue to lag behind its peers until that trust is restored