Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[chucko1] 30/10/2020 17:15

Thanks for bringing me back up to speed with this one. I have a few, but much more in other things so I've been trading it like orange juice futures! (yours/mine/shag).

After the news of the prospective sales (Singapore etc.) and the subsequent rise, but now the far bigger fall, it seems like a good time to focus intensively on this.

As I indicated on the previous post, Bloomberg's implied dividends from listed options are 21p (April 2021) and 6p (August 2021). These are the ex-div dates, of course.

But it's the implied dividends for 2022 that grabbed my attention. The April 2022 looks like 17p with the Aug 2022 at 10.4p with that trend confirmed again in 2023 (i.e. less in Apr and more in Aug). I wonder whether some catch-up is therefore a possibility in Apr 2021 and that is why the implied dividend is elevated.

Just to say, these implied dividends are merely market forecasts and lots of money has been lost (mainly by French banks - what's new?) in derivatives just like this.

[hhhold2] 30/10/2020 16:58

Well I've got enough of these now although if the Mug M's drop this to the 210 -220p level,

I will snaffle more up as I've saved a few quid back for the slam dunk if it happens,

great discount & thx.

[1robbob] 30/10/2020 16:45

mountpleasant

You will almost certainly lose your bet re the cancelled dividend

>>I bet on 26/11 they will mention rebasing dividend policy, and will not refer to >>the cancelled dividend at all.

What they actually said in the half year statement was

...'Q4 2020: Update on FY19 dividend and future dividend policy'...

No room for misunderstanding there!!!

Do remember that so far they have paid no dividend whatsoever for 2020, a year which is almost complete.
I would have thought that she will say 3 things on the dividend
1) Any further payment for 2019
2) Announce an Interim for 2020
3) Indicate a level for a final dividend for 2020

Spud
I will nail my bet on a dividend rebased at 24p for 2020

[mountpleasant] 30/10/2020 16:14

Spud, I agree with you. I bet on 26/11 they will mention rebasing dividend policy, and will not refer to the cancelled dividend at all.
In my opinion, its been diverted to reducing debt.

[chucko1] 30/10/2020 15:48

Is there any consensus on what AV/'s "new" dividend policy is heading towards? Is it now quarterly, and at what overall percentage annual reduction from here?

Bloomberg seems to indicate a resumption of the larger final at around the 20p level, but I thought 4 x 6p was also a runner in the race. That's a world of difference, but Bloomberg imply dividends from traded option prices, so that appears to be what the market is tending towards.

[cyberian] 30/10/2020 14:18

Fingers crossed for a calm weekend, and lively news next week...it should be interesting!

[mo123] 30/10/2020 09:55

Citi analysts forecast that the European Central Bank will buy a greater quantity of debt than all the new bonds hitting the market in 2021.

Indicates to me no probs with any Euro country bond issuance.Mo

[essentialinvestor] 30/10/2020 09:42

It's the end of the world as we know it
And I feel fine )


Tempted here.

[dr biotech] 30/10/2020 08:38

If the press reports are right, tomorrow is the deadline day for one party to make an offer for aviva France or lose exclusivity. Obviously I’m not party to those discussions but it may focus their minds and lead to some sort of conclusion next week. We could do with some positive news.

[carpingtris] 29/10/2020 18:16

Averaged down from 338p to 316p today... still looking to bring down more where funds allow.

Brought some BAE systems today too.. madness.

All adding to my hoping to retire early fund!! 15yrs to go, lol

[carpingtris] 29/10/2020 15:49

Added more today :) seemed crazy not too at these prices... got to make the most of the market madness..

Hopefully brings my average down a fair bit... will find out when looking at the pot later.

[1pencil] 29/10/2020 14:59

May be the markets anticipated such a move by ECB, or banks were already active prior to official release.

[cyberian] 29/10/2020 14:34

Hurrah!!! The ECB has indicated that a new stimulus is in train to help with the new semi lock-downs to fight the Covid 19 virus in Europe. I think someone else mentioned on this BB that such support is needed and critical, and almost certain to be activated. We really need to look beyond the next few months as there are credible announcements made today by a couple of large Pharmas that they are likely to have a vaccine ready in about 4/5 weeks. The related data is in the final stages to be completed, and then reviewed with much urgency. The UK has bought 10 million from the EU entity and this will hopefully be the start of many...fingers crossed!

[eurofox] 29/10/2020 14:32

brilliant!

[imagining] 29/10/2020 14:26

Well at least she won't have less balls than the previous incumbent! LOL

[1robbob] 29/10/2020 13:27

imagining

In my experience the BoE (PRA = BoE) rarely forces anything
.....they use 'veiled threats'

>> Hope the new CEO has more balls than the previous incumbent
Perhaps physically impossible !!!

[imagining] 29/10/2020 13:21

1robbob,I don't think the BoE forced the cancellation of the 2019 Final Dividend. The weak and feeble CEO at the time (who was well out of his league) buckled under the veiled threats of the PRA quango(I believe they were called). To renege on a declared dividend was simply unacceptable and another example of contempt for their shareholders. The likes of reputable companies such as L&G honoured their already declared dividends.Hope the new CEO has more balls than the previous incumbent.

[essentialinvestor] 29/10/2020 12:57

I'm not aware how much the focus on debt reduction has changed, if at all,

it was central to the last CEO's truncated tenure.

But that aside, the 2020 reduced payout has helped in that respect.

[spud] 29/10/2020 12:15

My lowest is at 224p.

My strategy is that I write down my target buy prices in advance along with my sell targets & don't buy above my lowest buy point. This strategy prevents me from overbuying and also from taking a short profit on sales. I also always keep a core holding in each stock (£100k) selling as it goes up each 10% and buying back as it drops each 10%.

Works for me.

spud

[spcecks] 29/10/2020 12:08

I've also been adding to my holding at these prices for the long term as I don't trade.

[1robbob] 29/10/2020 12:07

cjac39

I totally agree with your comments re the Market's misunderstanding of Aviva's business

Unfortunately the BoE, in forcing AV to cancel its 2019 Final Dividend, would appear also not to understand AVs business either !!!

Indeed the BoE managed to re-inforce the misunderstanding

[eurofox] 29/10/2020 12:01

and at 255.7

[eurofox] 29/10/2020 11:52

added 256.35

[igoe104] 29/10/2020 11:48

This share never seems to recover after A big market fall, whilst other shares in my portfolio pull back some of the losses.

[cjac39] 29/10/2020 10:23

insurers in 08/09 were close to through their capital but they were rescued when govts rescued banks and their subordinated bonds and they implemented the ability to pv spreads into annuity books.

today, radically different as they virtually own zero bank subdebt and other riskier credit assets like Hy and lev loans.

and the pra / eiopa have spent 10+ years pulling more and more capital into insurers at the detriment to consumers as they pass on the higher cost of capital directly into pricing

but in aggregate i totally agree. insurers are traded like leveraged owners of mkt assets and prima facie they are quite leveraged if you look at their inv assets vs their capital base it would tell you they are 6-8x leveraged bets on credit and equity.

however they are not subject to MTM accounting in many respects and can ride out any asset value falls as we all saw in H1 this year.

so its nonsense they trade down with eq mkts and its of course nonsense they are valued at an EV of £16bln vs own funds of £24bln odd.

europe is catching a cold on ger / fr silly lockdowns and av is of course more exposed to that than most other UK insurers. usual mkt story: news of sales prospect is largely ignored but European woes are immediately priced in.