Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[purple11] 23/8/2020 05:30

BUY HOLD ADD

xXTiPSXHEETSXx

[purple11] 23/8/2020 05:29

what the dividend yield pls?
lovely

[eurofox] 22/8/2020 22:56

cjac39 ... "as many uk stocks do to persuade people to hold below par growth stocks with cash promises."

However, we are in a new world now and much as you may not like it, this world is going to be one with below par growth in many sectors, so investing assumptions about preferring growth over assured cash flows are, in my view, going to be changing. Perhaps we have different investing goals, but at my age I am happy with a 5% return on capital in perpetuity.

[cjac39] 22/8/2020 21:14

I would say you’ve got cause and effect mixed up. Av has proven comprehensively they cannot make decent compounded returns from their franchises. Investors know this and the only thing that kept them in the game was the divi. This wasn’t investors telling them not to reinvest this was them choosing as many uk stocks do to persuade people to hold below par growth stocks with cash promises. I’m here till cheapness unwinds and I’d be delighted with spuds £4 but anywhere high 3s and I’m off. My trawl through us and cad and Asian insurers has been illuminating and eye opening as to how bad companies like av are

[1robbob] 22/8/2020 19:20

Eurofox I do understand your train of thought
BUT
For the last 10 years AV has consistently shown that it doesnt know how to manage its assets. Hence why the yield has been well in excess of 5% and a reluctance by shsreholders to allow management to retain a larger % of earnings.
The new senior management is totally unproven in running a Plc. And should not be given an improved rating based on words only.
I have to disagree with you; the stock remains ex growth with a patchy dividend record and as such should yield 7.5%-8%..hence a dividend of 24p
If AB does become a star CEO then perhaps a 5% yield
....And a shareprice if 480p !!!!

[ianood] 22/8/2020 18:41

1pencil - was it not the ShareSoc that made a complete balls of their analysis of L&G?

[eurofox] 22/8/2020 16:17

Much more dividend realism is needed and in the climate going forward any thing in excess of 5% is a sign of a business that doesn't know how to best manage its assets. If re-based to about 5% I am a very happy investor at these prices because it is still an excellent return for an A rated firm with a strong balance sheet and shows that at last we have a management team prepared to actively manage its assets for the best long term outcomes which may need to happen in a low growth environment in which trust, products, productivity and competitiveness are the key ingredients.

[1pencil] 21/8/2020 19:23

1robbob21 (4171 of 4174)

Couldn't agree more, I would expect you have the support of many shareholders both large and small.

ShareSoc may also be helpful as they do a lot of work on behalf of shareholders.

There's one or two previous articles here:

[spud] 21/8/2020 18:57

I’ll pin my colours to the mast and predict a £4 valuation before the end of Q1.

spud

[1robbob] 21/8/2020 17:04

Thanks for your thoughts cjac39
I don't see regular and special dividends as mutually exclusive.
The future policy should be clear and transparent and be a combination of both

Where I may differ from you, is that I believe that Management need the dicipline of a committment to pay a regular (and ideally rising) dividend. Especially in todays environment where executive pay is huge and their personal interest in the dividend
minimal.

[cjac39] 21/8/2020 16:25

If you send the company secretary an email they will probably have to pass it on. Or maybe the IR guy Chris Esson who’s quite sensible.

However I’m quite happy if they sell something decent and return capital as a one off rather than stretch their cashflows for constant divis. A sale of some or all of Europe and Asia would be a big number

[1robbob] 21/8/2020 15:26

I am of the view that there is no reason why the 2019 Final Dividend should not now be honoured in full and without delay. Also that the case for revising the existing dividend policy is weak; apart from giving the new CEO additional cash headroom

Would it be an idea to lobby the Non Executuve Directors via email - Patricia Cross, Patrick Flynn,Belen Garcia, Michael Mire

To make sure that they are fully aware that:

1) With the benefit of hindsight, the decision to postpone the 2019 Final Dividend of 21.4p was un-necessary and that there is now no reason whatsoever for it not to be paid in full and without delay

2) That shareholders are concerned at the CEOs comments at the Interim Announcement of a possible 're-basing' of the dividend policy going forward. Aviva has a unenviable record of cutting its dividend and the suggestion of yet another reduction should only be contemplated if absolutely necessary

Does anyone have any idea as to the non Execs email addresses

[hhhold2] 21/8/2020 11:02

Not sure why anyone would touch banks?

They have high pe ratios still and how will they generate cash in the current environment. Just look at the last reports they put out. Profits were pants.

If we get another crash I will continue to add aviva as I don't see a better share out there long term. Glad they are still undervalued purely from a selfish point of view.

[spud] 21/8/2020 09:05

Starting to move:Retail sales rose above pre-pandemic levels in July as a rebound in demand continued, according to official figures.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said retail sales volumes rose by 3.6% between June and July.It said sales are now 3% higher than February before the World Health Organization declared a pandemic and the UK was placed in lockdown.Clothing sales grew last month and people spent more money on petrol.spud

[cjac39] 21/8/2020 08:46

yes but if you scan down the largest cos in the ftse its not that surprising. banks and commodity companies are all scoring pretty low at the moment and chuck in a brexit overseen by a bunch of muppets and you get a low pe. the flip side of this is there are some nice bargains to be had.

its really interesting to see how insurers are down across the board. ive spent the last week or so looking at us and cad insurance stocks and you can pick up some very interesting companies reasonably close to book value who are historic compounders at 10-15%. eg arch, afg, trv, fairfax. whilst the div income of uk insurers is still appealing and ill hold until that reprices to 5-6%, these guys have many years of compounding returns to a level that uk insurers dont get close.

wbh - u worked in US right? any views on interesting cos out there?

[leedslad001] 21/8/2020 08:45

All worring about Brexit again top up and forget this year look next year imho

[spud] 21/8/2020 08:44

Value will always win out p0pper. The vital ingredient is patience and big cahonas to continue to buy at these depressed levels.spud

[p0pper] 21/8/2020 08:17

Anyone see Bloomberg early on this morning, UK stocks most undervalued (cheapest) of all indices

[uppompeii] 20/8/2020 20:23

Yep, except the US.

[eurofox] 20/8/2020 17:50

time to buy then

[bo90] 20/8/2020 16:05

yes i could have forgoes the divi and sold prior, my only comfort on these past red days is my penny share Zoetic which has reversed the trend for two weeks now

[wadders5] 20/8/2020 14:16

Absolutely, wish i had sold at £3+ as well ?. If i had though it would be £3.50 now!!

[buywell3] 20/8/2020 14:14

ALL markets everywhere a sea of RED

[linton5] 20/8/2020 14:06

Boy school error from me my head said sell 306 heart said don't mmmm fool

[dope007] 20/8/2020 12:12

Markets are not pricing in growth. They are pricing in the complete collapse of the value of money due to the collapse in yields via the printing presses