Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[gary1966] 11/9/2020 14:47

Agree good bit of business by the looks of it. Does the RNS suggest the proceeds are going to be used for debt reduction?

[chucko1] 11/9/2020 14:46

Crawling out now, maybe, on this Singapore sale.

[1pencil] 11/9/2020 14:45

'CEO has caught the market off guard, long may it continue'

Now Singapore

[spud] 11/9/2020 14:35

Needs clarity on the 2020 dividend first & foremost allied to 2021 payment policy before we can crawl out of the 270-300p channel. spud

[gary1966] 11/9/2020 14:21

Having sold here with a view to getting back in quite quickly, I hadn't registered the contrasting share price fortunes of Aviva and L&G recently. I can't quite understand the disconnect of late and given the bombed out status of the L&G RSI I have invested the proceeds from here into L&G with a view to getting back in here when and if that situation reverses.

GLA

[1robbob] 10/9/2020 22:13

mountpleasant I think you sre wrong re the 2019 dividend.
The 6p dividend was purposely called "Interim' and they said the balance would reviewed in Q4.....Did you just mean it will not be paid in 2020?

[1pencil] 10/9/2020 22:09

It depends on where the line is drawn on asset sales, clearly no one anticipated this initiative so all to play for.

CEO has caught the market off guard, long may it continue.

[mountpleasant] 10/9/2020 21:49

This is a desperate situation.
I own more than 3 of the directors.
I think the dividend situation is confusing.
Theres no commitment to pay the cancelled dividend.
I expect 6p is the only amount to be paid this year.

[eurofox] 10/9/2020 21:15

You mean their combined holdings are less than mine!!

[yf23_1] 10/9/2020 21:09

Director Shareholdings

Jason Windsor 77,781 £224,553.75
Michael Mire 50,000 £144,350.00
George Culmer 31,276 £90,293.81
Patricia Cross 30,547 £88,189.19
Belen Romana Garcia 14,723 £42,505.30

For such a large company they don't have a lot of faith in themselves do they ?

[1robbob] 10/9/2020 18:55

mountpleasant

Its quite simple realy!!!

Memo to AB

1) Pay the remainder of 2019 Final Dividend...without delay
2) Re-set the Dividend at a minimum of 24p per share, excluding special dividends.
This to be from Financial Year 2020 onwards
3) Confirm your strategy with meaningful disposals and improved trading margins
4) State that you will 'consider' the payment of Special Dividends in the event of
significant disposals

Share price....350p++

QED

[mountpleasant] 10/9/2020 18:37

I get a feeling, the management dont know what they are doing.
With the share price, its 2 steps forward, one step back.

[wba1] 10/9/2020 17:05

1robbob; I agree with your sentiments but see it as unlikely.

I should have added in my previous post that my floating of Chesnara has two other reasons. Firstly I like the niche (closed book management). Secondly, Chesnara are fairly small and unable to go up against Phoenix for bigger prey. But with Aviva as parent they would have access to the capital needed to do so, as well as any internal opportunities. It could be a new line of business for Aviva, but based upon their historic expertise and fitting well with current businesses

[1robbob] 10/9/2020 11:43

wbs1 as always an excellent resume

The main reason I am hawkish on the dividend is to concentrate Managment on extracting proper returns from the business. The sale proceeds will only make the problem worse.

I believe that the dividend should be maintained and that all share proceeds should
be returned to the shareholders. Should they wish to make a significant aquisition which required new equity they should return then to shareholders (Rights Issue) with the appropriate justifications....this will ensure the importance of the share price to Management

Appreciate this is contentious...but the Company's cash resources are not Managements'
personal Piggy Bank, they belong to the Shareholders

[wba1] 10/9/2020 11:07

It is a very good question as to what is to be done with the proceeds of a French (and other) sales. My concern would be that, historically, Aviva management have combined an astonishing belief in their ability to manage acquisitions with an equally astonishing ability to completely destroy the value in those acquisitions. So I am sceptical about them buying additional operations in the remaining core markets of the UK and Canada. But it would be an unusual large company that simply returns all that cash to shareholders. Unfortunately, the moment the large sales became known, the entire Aviva senior management team would have been fighting off 'advisors' trying to steer them toward possible acquisitions which would be very lucrative (for the advisors). The track records of Blanc and Culmer do not give me much confidence that they can resist, but I hope I am wrong.

If I was looking for acquisitions on the general insurance side I would focus on commercial insurers or niche personal operations. Definitely do not buy retail motor or home insurance books - marketing departments will tell you they can retain the business and add value, and then will lose the lot as there is no customer loyalty except to price. I do wonder if there may be value in going after an operation such as Chesnara on the life side? The valuation seems modest and there may be some cost savings to be made by injecting old Aviva life business into their set up which is designed to manage such books.

I would be very interested in cjac's view of opportunities in life/pensions and investment.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 09/9/2020 21:50

Capital reinvestment

[carpingtris] 09/9/2020 21:47

Dow did ok today so hopefully another up day tomorrow!

[carpingtris] 09/9/2020 21:46

Traders looking for a quick buck?

I'm buy and hold long term and reinvesting any divis received.

[imagining] 09/9/2020 21:29

why on Earth would anybody contemplate selling now that sentiment is finally improving? As far as I'm aware,there's not a single broker advocating sell Aviva, and many tipsheets and newspaper columns are also very positive on Aviva's prospects.

[gary1966] 09/9/2020 18:15

Took a chance and sold at 289.5p today as short term RSI was over cooked and there is a gap a smidge below 280p and Aviva does like filling those gaps.

My history of doing this should now mean it will be 350p by the end of the week.

GLA

[edmundshaw] 09/9/2020 18:07

On the sale, Aviva either invests the cash or returns it to shareholders in some way. There is no suitable mattress they can stick it under...

[cyberian] 09/9/2020 17:32

I very much agree with your last line 1pencil....it will be areal dilemma as to where to re-invest for what must be a similar value to buy against an exit multiple of say 10 which looks like what they will achieve.A rather clumsy comment but I guess others here will understand and relate better. I cannot imagine that the CEO would simply return the French sale value as a special dividend to shareholders or to buy back some shares...so what will they achieve by selling an asset that appears to have a reasonable value, unless the French vehicle and its future prospects after Brexit presents something too pragmatic. Some of you posters will have a more valued account as to the benefit of a potential sale....OK, I understand why she wants to narrow the field of investments at Aviva, but where is future growth going to come from....cash has little value at present.

[1pencil] 09/9/2020 15:01

Less and less reasons for the short side.

I presume the sale proceeds indicate a greater return to shareholders if not spent elsewhere.

Not many places to park cash with a decent return.