Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[yf23_1] 10/9/2020 21:09

Director Shareholdings

Jason Windsor 77,781 £224,553.75
Michael Mire 50,000 £144,350.00
George Culmer 31,276 £90,293.81
Patricia Cross 30,547 £88,189.19
Belen Romana Garcia 14,723 £42,505.30

For such a large company they don't have a lot of faith in themselves do they ?

[1robbob] 10/9/2020 18:55

mountpleasant

Its quite simple realy!!!

Memo to AB

1) Pay the remainder of 2019 Final Dividend...without delay
2) Re-set the Dividend at a minimum of 24p per share, excluding special dividends.
This to be from Financial Year 2020 onwards
3) Confirm your strategy with meaningful disposals and improved trading margins
4) State that you will 'consider' the payment of Special Dividends in the event of
significant disposals

Share price....350p++

QED

[mountpleasant] 10/9/2020 18:37

I get a feeling, the management dont know what they are doing.
With the share price, its 2 steps forward, one step back.

[wba1] 10/9/2020 17:05

1robbob; I agree with your sentiments but see it as unlikely.

I should have added in my previous post that my floating of Chesnara has two other reasons. Firstly I like the niche (closed book management). Secondly, Chesnara are fairly small and unable to go up against Phoenix for bigger prey. But with Aviva as parent they would have access to the capital needed to do so, as well as any internal opportunities. It could be a new line of business for Aviva, but based upon their historic expertise and fitting well with current businesses

[1robbob] 10/9/2020 11:43

wbs1 as always an excellent resume

The main reason I am hawkish on the dividend is to concentrate Managment on extracting proper returns from the business. The sale proceeds will only make the problem worse.

I believe that the dividend should be maintained and that all share proceeds should
be returned to the shareholders. Should they wish to make a significant aquisition which required new equity they should return then to shareholders (Rights Issue) with the appropriate justifications....this will ensure the importance of the share price to Management

Appreciate this is contentious...but the Company's cash resources are not Managements'
personal Piggy Bank, they belong to the Shareholders

[wba1] 10/9/2020 11:07

It is a very good question as to what is to be done with the proceeds of a French (and other) sales. My concern would be that, historically, Aviva management have combined an astonishing belief in their ability to manage acquisitions with an equally astonishing ability to completely destroy the value in those acquisitions. So I am sceptical about them buying additional operations in the remaining core markets of the UK and Canada. But it would be an unusual large company that simply returns all that cash to shareholders. Unfortunately, the moment the large sales became known, the entire Aviva senior management team would have been fighting off 'advisors' trying to steer them toward possible acquisitions which would be very lucrative (for the advisors). The track records of Blanc and Culmer do not give me much confidence that they can resist, but I hope I am wrong.

If I was looking for acquisitions on the general insurance side I would focus on commercial insurers or niche personal operations. Definitely do not buy retail motor or home insurance books - marketing departments will tell you they can retain the business and add value, and then will lose the lot as there is no customer loyalty except to price. I do wonder if there may be value in going after an operation such as Chesnara on the life side? The valuation seems modest and there may be some cost savings to be made by injecting old Aviva life business into their set up which is designed to manage such books.

I would be very interested in cjac's view of opportunities in life/pensions and investment.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 09/9/2020 21:50

Capital reinvestment

[carpingtris] 09/9/2020 21:47

Dow did ok today so hopefully another up day tomorrow!

[carpingtris] 09/9/2020 21:46

Traders looking for a quick buck?

I'm buy and hold long term and reinvesting any divis received.

[imagining] 09/9/2020 21:29

why on Earth would anybody contemplate selling now that sentiment is finally improving? As far as I'm aware,there's not a single broker advocating sell Aviva, and many tipsheets and newspaper columns are also very positive on Aviva's prospects.

[gary1966] 09/9/2020 18:15

Took a chance and sold at 289.5p today as short term RSI was over cooked and there is a gap a smidge below 280p and Aviva does like filling those gaps.

My history of doing this should now mean it will be 350p by the end of the week.

GLA

[edmundshaw] 09/9/2020 18:07

On the sale, Aviva either invests the cash or returns it to shareholders in some way. There is no suitable mattress they can stick it under...

[cyberian] 09/9/2020 17:32

I very much agree with your last line 1pencil....it will be areal dilemma as to where to re-invest for what must be a similar value to buy against an exit multiple of say 10 which looks like what they will achieve.A rather clumsy comment but I guess others here will understand and relate better. I cannot imagine that the CEO would simply return the French sale value as a special dividend to shareholders or to buy back some shares...so what will they achieve by selling an asset that appears to have a reasonable value, unless the French vehicle and its future prospects after Brexit presents something too pragmatic. Some of you posters will have a more valued account as to the benefit of a potential sale....OK, I understand why she wants to narrow the field of investments at Aviva, but where is future growth going to come from....cash has little value at present.

[1pencil] 09/9/2020 15:01

Less and less reasons for the short side.

I presume the sale proceeds indicate a greater return to shareholders if not spent elsewhere.

Not many places to park cash with a decent return.

[chinese investor] 09/9/2020 14:53

60p To 350p (my break even price) !

[leedslad001] 09/9/2020 13:47

Hopefully in 12-24 months into the 4 quids

[whatsup32] 09/9/2020 13:29

Carpingtris

You’re doing way better then me .
Topped up 284.6

Average 4.60 ish

[hhhold2] 09/9/2020 12:58

lol, let it go MM, you know you want us pay for those reinvests on 25th

[carpingtris] 09/9/2020 12:55

Happy I topped up at ~2.78 last week..

Average is 3.38 though! :(

[leedslad001] 09/9/2020 12:25

Can't understand why this is sub 3 pounds

[leedslad001] 09/9/2020 12:24

Agree just added again

[spud] 09/9/2020 11:23

Agreed. I would have bought more too but already hold far too many.

spud

[whatsup32] 09/9/2020 11:07

Just bought a little more sub 285p . Times said 20 interested parties whittled down to 3 and final decision by end of month .
Priced in Euro so that's good too and with completion to buy should get good price .
Expected news French opp. Sold , backdated dividend paid in full other units also sold , should be better from here