Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[32campomar] 07/4/2020 22:28

Dow loses all its 900 point rise by close. Bear market rally over. Big down day tomorrow.

[whatsup32] 07/4/2020 17:41

‘Axa criticises regulator for confusion over dividend policy’ FT

He says there should be one rule for all as France backs EU regulator so Axa can’t pay and Germany doesn’t so Alianze and Munic Re still paying .

Decision is made at national level

[lako42] 07/4/2020 16:47

A nice week of fickle rises in the market before the real bottom is reached after another crash?

Textbook crisis playing out in the market.

[solarno lopez] 07/4/2020 16:33

Now, nearly a month after the country went into lockdown, Italy is sending another warning. The economy is in trouble, bound for a major contraction. And the precariously situated workers — self-employed, seasonal, informal — are suffering the most. It’s not clear how much longer they can survive.

With thanks to the New York Times

[tygarreg] 07/4/2020 16:25

I do follow that site and with the exception of Germany I think for a country with our population at the crossroads of world travel, we have done better than anywhere else.Of course we dont know how different countries decide if a death is due to covid or a death whilst also having covid. But of the 60m plus European hub countries, the UK is better situation than Italy, Spain and France but behind Germany. So how is that doing badly? Think the press just love to criticise and shoot the momentum and left wing bullets. Saw Clive Myree today on BBC news trying as hard as he could to drive a wedge into the cabinet, trying to force somebody/ anybody to say that govt would flounder without Boris. Pathetic manipulative, disruptive gutter journalism.

[wba1] 07/4/2020 14:05

Tygarreg;
Look at for up to date data on deaths, cases and tests. Whilst testing capacity may be stretched it does not explain why others have done so much better in terms of both absolute numbers of tests and tests/million of population. If excuses are allowed to prevail now, we will just make the same mistakes next time.

[leedslad001] 07/4/2020 12:59

Or even Bloomberg Sky are pathetic all scaremongering with no positivity Eg have you ever seen them shoe china getting back to some normality

[tygarreg] 07/4/2020 12:54

A test is practically worthless. It tells you your status at the moment you were tested. By the time test results are back you may have it! International shortage of testing capacity. Dont watch the parochial BBC. Try aljazeera for the bigger picture

[whatsup32] 07/4/2020 12:50

Amen to that monty

[montyhedge] 07/4/2020 12:38

Pay that dividend and add 150p on this shareprice.

[whatsup32] 07/4/2020 12:09

Pre market USA looks very strong, over 800 points on Dow

[chinese investor] 07/4/2020 11:58

Dividend Gone !

[eurofox] 07/4/2020 11:57

impressive short squeeze

[wba1] 07/4/2020 10:24

Coming back to the insurance business. I was interested to see the results statement from Sabre today, as it shows how insurers may choose to spin the current situation. Sabre are paying (an increased) final divi, but have passed on a special dividend for the time being despite a solvency ratio over 210%(!). Their reason is prudence in an uncertain environment. Given that 160% would be considered prudent for a pure motor player with heavy reinsurance cover for large loss this is prudent in the extreme. They have also pointed to the risk of increased parts and labour costs, which might be more relevant if physical vehicle damage was a major element of claims (PI and legal costs is the real issue). I smell a Snowball spin being used to retain profit for future release.
What relevance does this have for Aviva? If I was Tulloch, relatively recent to the top job, I would use similar spin to retain profit (both to fund my favourite projects and to smooth future profit), because I could still point to my predecessors to justify the need at this point. None of this means Aviva will not pay the divi - I expect they will - but watch out for some managementspeak distorting the reality of the results and outlook.

[imagining] 07/4/2020 09:39

You shouldn't have too long to wait now.

[chinese investor] 07/4/2020 09:15

80p to 350p (my break even price) !

[wba1] 07/4/2020 08:54

andyj;
not so. Even at this stage in the process, and with lockdown in place, a test and trace process contributes to slowing the spread (and can be easily modelled to show this). I agree it is too late to obtain the control seen in some places. However, had proper plans for testing been pursued at an early stage, even without general test and trace, testing could have been focused on the 1 million+ NHS workers and even greater numbers of carers - releasing for work many of those currently having to isolate. My sister runs a large nursing home (and is a very highly qualified nurse). My niece in law is a consultant. Both are seeing the utter depletion of staff caused by a lack of testing and cannot understand why the UK failed to prioritise testing when it was shown to be so important early in the pandemic. It is often said that loss of doctors to isolation is the major problem. The lack of testing goes way beyond that issue. My sister's home (which is a nursing, not care home, so needing skilled staff)is currently operating on limited capacity and cannot take more patients from hospital (freeing up their beds) because of a lack of staff caused, in part, by an inability to access tests.

With over a million in the NHS plus nearly 2 million in the independent care sector the current level of testing is a huge problem.

[pete160] 07/4/2020 07:40

EI - you are correct. There are thousands if not tens of thousands of front line NHS staff who are currently isolating at home because a member of their household has a cough or a temperature. Prioity testing of NHS staff would remove this 'pool of perhaps'.

Re. nursing homes. My understanding is that unless the person dies in a hospital they are not counted in the official deaths.

That said, the number of deaths being used by the gov and the media is the number of deaths where the person tested positive for covid - not the number of deaths due to covid.

Stats, stats and salacious jouralism.
A bit like '5 london bus drivers die of covid' is a completely separate headline to '5 of those people who have died with covid were london bus drivers'

[andyj] 07/4/2020 06:58

Mass testing is only useful if you do something with the data collected otherwise it just becomes a numbers game. For example here in Vietnam there is zero tolerance. Any positive case is immediately hospitalised. Their contacts for the past 14 days are quarantined as are the contacts they had and so on, up to 4 connections. All of those contacts are tested and quarantined forcibly in a remote army camp or isolated at home. All of those are tested three times. Our only serious case is a British pilot currently in ICU. The fear of being imprisoned in an army camp is a very effective deterrent!I am afraid it is too late now for the UK. Many if not most cases are unrecorded so no one has any idea how many there are or were. More importantly no one can reliably predict when it will subside without accurate data. The only reliable data is deaths, which is a lagging indicator, no more useful than the numbers of recoveries. I do not blame the government, no western governments were ready for this, but I fear the abyss of a severe financial crisis and social unrest lies ahead and it will take a huge stroke of luck, or an acceptance that we need to live and die with it, to avoid that. Dark days ahead, despite the rally yesterday.

[pander45] 06/4/2020 22:46

This is absolutely correct. Sleep is essential to batting this one back.

[yf23_1] 06/4/2020 22:03

I said to myself all along, it was madness to let Boris carry on working instead of completely resting him because this is the best way to defeat the virus. The worst thing is stress, which is what you're under constantly if you're a PM, let alone one fighting a crisis !

You need complete deep sleep to let the immune system function properly, and that is the only thing that will save you.