Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[cjac39] 04/4/2020 16:08

I wouldn’t ascribe superior skills to hedge funds compared to people who have worked inside insurance companies. And in particular Marshall wace who cleverly shorted a decent amount of l&g last week. That’s not going to work out well on Monday

[spud] 04/4/2020 15:43

If L&G are paying, it's a given that AV will follow suite. I expect an RNS early doors Monday. spud

[spud] 04/4/2020 15:41

Slightly misleading headline methinks. The PRA only advised caution and prudence to be taken into consideration before deciding to pay. Providing the payee's fiscal ratio is within industry guidelines, then there should be no issues. spud

[whatsup32] 04/4/2020 15:23

Fingers crossed we get positive news Monday.

[lauders] 04/4/2020 12:44

Yes, good to see Lord Lee invest in AV. This from the Sunday Times piece on 29th March.

Lee has also invested in Aviva, whose yield, he says is in double figures. “One expects it has the strength to withstand this crisis.”

Looking back over the years of building his Isa portfolio, he says there have been successes and failures.

Let's hope AV. turns out to be one of the successes!



(Above is subscription usually)

[spcecks] 04/4/2020 12:33

I think I'll be sticking with insurance companies like Lgen Aviva Phnx and Sla for recovery...had a large holding in builders which I have sold as to risky.

[salver2] 04/4/2020 12:28

As for mount pleasant assertion that hedge funds know more than us - that in theory should be the case but in practice hedge funds have underperformed the markets for years - what they are good at though is getting enough suckers on board to pay for their plush Mayfair offices!

[igoe104] 04/4/2020 11:30

Didn't realise Lord Lee is invested here now. Hes someone I admire.

[actybod] 04/4/2020 10:59

Target solvency ratio between 160 and 180. Was 175 a couple of weeks ago. Would have hedged against equity markets and protected this. Divi reduces by 7%. So around 168 and therefore expecting it to be paid.

[lord gnome] 04/4/2020 10:56

I agree. Nobody is going to flick a switch when this is over and expect everything to be as it was before. Some things will recover, some things won't and some things will change. But which is going to be which? Crystal Ball time. I'm looking for solid companies with strong balance sheets and necessary products to be the first to recover. Discretionary spending will be deferred for a later stage in recovery. I reckon savings will be stuffed for a while, but general insurance should be strong.

[tornado12] 04/4/2020 10:26

The problem is how long it will take and for small business how many will give up and fold before they get there. This is coming to recession and will take time (yrs) to recover to 2019 status. Then of course there’s the massive tax rises to pay for this whole lot of carp to consider. Going to be tough !

[igoe104] 04/4/2020 09:54

A lot of these unemployed will be back employed again whenever things get back to normal, by their original companies.so that unemployment figure isn't a long term realistic figure.

[eurofox] 04/4/2020 09:11

Good morning sellpoorly

[buywell3] 04/4/2020 09:07

Legal and General are paying though , so watch out on monday

buywell makes the point about the NHS needing cash like it has NEVER done before


Well IMO this crisis of Covid-19 is going to show many weak areas in the NHS that will cost the country many Billions of pounds to correct.

Namely :

1) Hospital bed numbers have been cut by over 50% in England


2) Intensive Care Units (ICU's) are already overwhelmed and the NHS is having to stop all other operations and turn operating rooms into temp ICU's PLUS turn various conference centres into ICU's and other buildings. And it still won't be enough.

No Health Service in the world has planned for such a pandemic as this one

Many new Hospitals needed

Many new independent ICU's needed

Lots more ICU staff and equipment

DOUBLE what the NHS has to cope with another pandemic

The cost worldwide in damage to the economies and on-going costs to those people who survive the worst cases , circa 20% , of which around 10% are likely to have permanent lung damage /heart damage / liver damage / kidney damage to some degree due to Sepsis occuring as it does with Covid-19.

buywell estimates worldwide due to monies needed to prop up failing BIG businesses
payment and support of unemployed , many of whom will never work again, debts growing to epic proportions by all counties V GDP to try to stay afloat after this passes , possibly 12 months to a vaccine,

Will cost circa 80 Trillion pounds



That is the current Global GDP

It is what buywell thinks this will cost

With this much debt going around paying dividends does not seem very likely and those that do should NOT qualify for a Government bail out in the way of the BOE buying their new bonds.

dyor

[mountpleasant] 04/4/2020 08:15

With high unemployment, and people scaling back on non-essential spending..
its going to be tough for a lot of companies.

Turnip restaurants will be opening.

[waikenchan] 04/4/2020 08:11

I guess the main issue, as an insurer will be if the unemployment rate increases - less assets under management as employees stop contributing to pensions, possibly skip buying home insurance.

I also think there will be losses coming from their investment activities as they will have invested in riskier assets for their reach for yield.

[mountpleasant] 04/4/2020 08:03

The hedge funds know more than us average investors. Theres a reason we are off nearly 50% on AV., once perceived to be a safe, high yield share.

I have access to a lot of the hedge fund trades and positions.

[cjac39] 03/4/2020 22:12

shouldn't really matter with daily moves > div pmt day to day but might squeeze out some of the shorts along with other insurers. cash is king and helps a lot in a crisis, notwithstanding this is mild for insurers who went into this with boat loads of spare capital. my main hope is that the investment side of these companies pile into the post virus, greater inv return opportunities. in meantime ive invested 80% of my spare capital now in insurance company debt and equity. the most misunderstood sector out there. im keeping last 20% just in case there is total mental meltdown

[crossing_the_rubicon] 03/4/2020 21:15

@WBA1

EU needs to burn
The way they have left Italy to hang out to dry merits such.
And that's before we even talk Brexit.

Yours
Leaver.

[spud] 03/4/2020 19:10

I'm down about £6.5k in dividend income thus far. AV & SLA are worth about £14.5k on their Finals to me so it's good to see L&Gs statement. spud

[lord gnome] 03/4/2020 19:05

As I posted on the LGEN board, I missed all this excitement during the trading day. I wondered why all my insurers had been hit so hard. The LGEN statement is so reassuring when almost all of my dividend income is toast. I shall look forward to a similar statement from AV. on Monday and a share price rebound.

[panshanger1] 03/4/2020 17:46

PHNX went ex div yesterday, although different business model seems to move in line with Aviva and L and G Hopefully all 3 get a lift Monday