Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[smurfy2001] 12/2/2020 15:22

As far as i'm concerned now that the Brexit bear is out of the way i'm looking for a slow but steady recovery.

[imagining] 12/2/2020 11:38

FWIW You say. IMO SFA! What is the point of trimming the TP by 10p? I'd have more respect for them if they just re-iterated the TP as well as the Hold recommendation(unless it was significantly changed). What do they mean by a TP of 460 anyway? Are they suggesting to sell if/when the share price hits 460 (in which case it should be a buy for the 50p upside not including the 20p divi)or what? I'm baffled. Can anyone enlighten me please?

[spud] 12/2/2020 11:19

FWIW:

Broker Forecast - Deutsche Bank issues a broker note on Aviva PLC
12 February 2020 | 09:20am

StockMarketWire.com - Deutsche Bank today reaffirms its hold investment rating on Aviva PLC [LON:AV.] and cut its price target to 460p (from 470p).

spud

[edmundshaw] 11/2/2020 18:35

"Dr Xi Xiuming, an intensive care medicine professor at Beijing Fuxing Hospital said that there are so many variables still as newer reports are emerging that the coronavirus is indeed mutating and already a new subtype has emerged."

That is very quick. I know it will mutate fast being single strand RNA (so more vulnerable to mutation than double stranded, which is more vulnerable than DNA viruses). Of course some viruses mutate more anyway as they have virus-encoded diversity-generating elements. But still...

BTW I believe the virus is 99% match to one found in pangolins. Who eats pangolins? All types are endangered. I have no words for the propensity of some Africans and Chinese to illegally trade and consume protected, endangered species. It is almost as if it was nature's revenge - except, as usual, most of the casualties will be law-abiding and have nothing to do with the trade...

[123trev] 11/2/2020 12:30

True, to much money out there with know place to go the problem with that is ????.

[alphorn] 11/2/2020 12:15

It may simply be down to a lack of alternatives?

[123trev] 11/2/2020 12:10

It’s actually quite incredible that markets are performing like they are given all the recent facts add to that what this is doing to the Chinese already shaky economic growth it’s truly bizarre.

[spud] 11/2/2020 11:22

Trev - This thread is open to both Long & Short with contrarian views. As you can tell, I'm 95% invested. That's not to say I'm right and you're wrong though!

spud

[123trev] 11/2/2020 11:17

Spud, very true I’m not invested here at the minute nor in anything else I’m total cash. I will be a buyer at what I think is the right price! However I’m not talking this down I’m genuinely looking at the risks out there presently the share is on the rise so I could be wrong but sometimes the market is slow to react but when it does it’s usually unforgiving. GL.

[spud] 11/2/2020 11:13

Aviva claims top spot as income majors tumble in Sanlam study
James Balfour and Christopher Murphy's fund topped the study.
by THEO ANDREW
Posted 11 FEBRUARY, 2020 AT 11:03



Aviva claims top spot as income majors tumble in Sanlam study

Aviva Investors' UK Listed Equity Income fund has taken top spot in the latest Sanlam Income Study.

Managed by James Balfour and Christopher Murphy (pictured), the strategy climbed from fifth position having ‘continued to deliver strong and consistent performance’, replacing Robin Geffen’s Liontrust Income fund, which tumbled to 19th place.

The bi-annual study ranks income funds on absolute income, capital growth and volatility over five years periods, categorising them into White, Grey and Black lists.

Sanlam chief investment officer Philip Smeaton said: ‘In the hunt for yield in the current low-interest rate environment, equity income funds have become core holdings for many who are prepared to accept the risk associated with the stock market.

‘We believe that investors in the White List selection of funds who have held their investments over the long term have been well rewarded.

‘However, cautious investors should seek to retain some cash deposits, and perhaps fixed income holdings, to reduce the overall risk of their portfolios and to use as a source of funds that may be needed at short notice.’

spud

[imagining] 11/2/2020 07:45

Annually, up to 30,000 people in Britain alone succumb to seasonal flu. Let's not panic, and let's keep this in perspective!

[jordaggy] 11/2/2020 03:47

A good read...

[eurofox] 10/2/2020 22:37

Every bit as bad - see recovered and dead as % of known outcomes:

[spud] 10/2/2020 20:54

Not so bad:https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/coronavirus-travel-flights-planes-risk-china-wuhan-symptoms-a9327901.htmlspud

[yf23_1] 10/2/2020 20:30

This isn't good.

hxxps://www.thailandmedical.news/news/must-read!-chinese-doctors-outline-stages-in-a-typical-coronavirus-infection-

Could mean death rate a lot higher, long term damage to body and relapse and possibly ability for 'cured' to re-infect.
Oh, and to make matters worse, its already mutating.

[dr biotech] 10/2/2020 16:03

Think the level of infection is much higher with some only having mild symptoms and the mortality is around 1-2%. Those infected on the cruise ship will give some stats - c150 infected, probably a fairly vulnerable cohort given they are more likely to be retirees, with no interference from the Chinese.

I’d be wary of conspiracy theories.

[eurofox] 10/2/2020 13:19

latest figures that include the total number of cases with an outcome one way or the other seem to be pointing to 80% recoveries/discharges and 20% deaths which certainly is on a par with SARs but for a virus that is many more times transmissable.

[123trev] 10/2/2020 12:35

Sorry spud,I totally disagree some exposure to Asian markets and when or if markets finally wake up all stocks will get hit badly.

[spud] 10/2/2020 12:30

This type of share is a pretty good hedge against any virus I would have thought. BATS and IMB too. Big oil is likely to be most impacted imo.

spud

[jordaggy] 10/2/2020 12:18

We can't rely on the state enforced narratives coming from the Chinese media. I'm surprised AV.L is holding up considering... unless the likes of zerohedge are just pushing fake news.

[123trev] 10/2/2020 12:12

You have to read between the lines here and evidence suggests this is far more deadly than is being officially reported. The incubation period is now possibly up to a month in which case any lock down is far to late and the world will have to wait for the true impact in the coming weeks. Meanwhile financial markets shrug the virus off despite key financial commentators believing this could be catastrophic to the word economy. Is there just so much cash now with little place to go that such events are ignored in the race to Dow 30000!

[eurofox] 10/2/2020 12:00

Also, given the first cases were emerging in December, we have now had long enough for more confirmed recovery cases to be showing up. That is the number I am tracking. That number, given the lapse in time, is pitifully low which points to a much higher ultimate mortality rate than has been intimated so far.

[crossing_the_rubicon] 10/2/2020 11:10

Plenty to be worried about Coronavirus side.


"Canadian scientist at center of Chinese Bio-Espionage probe found dead in Africa?"
Renowned scientist Frank Plummer who received Saudi SARS Coronavirus sample and was working on Coronavirus (HIV) vaccine in the Winnipeg based Canadian lab from where the virus was smuggled by Chinese Biowarfare agents and weaponized as
revealed in GreatGameIndia investigation, has died in mysterious conditions.




The Mysterious Origin Of The Wuhan Coronavirus
China continues to refuse to release animal sampling testing data

It has been two months since the outbreak of the coronavirus in Wuhan and its spread has shown no signs of slowing down in China.

More than 35 Chinese cities have been put on lockdown by Chinese authorities in an attempt to isolate confirmed and suspected cases. The lives of millions of people are in danger as the virus shows signs of spreading further in China as well as internationally.

There are significant gaps in the official investigations into the origins of the novel Coronavirus. In order to contain the virus, one first needs to understand how a virus that allegedly originated in animals found its way to humans.
For this to happen, the Chinese authorities need to release their animal testing data and samples. Testing results from animal samples collected at epicenters would give important insights into what animals might serve as intermediate hosts for the new coronavirus.
This is critical to the containment of the epidemic.
Scientific studies based on phylogenetic analysis have researched the sequence of the novel coronavirus, compared it to other coronavirus sequences, and found it likely originated in bats. Researchers from the Wuhan Institute of Virology found the genome in the virus found in patients was 96 percent identical to that of an existing bat coronavirus, according to a study published in the journal Nature. But there have been other theories as well. One Chinese study suggested, for example, that snakes were the source of transmission to humans. However, many scientists believe that reptiles are a less likely source and that mammals like rats and pigs, and some birds, have been the primary reservoir for coronaviruses.

With this in mind, phylogenetic studies of viral genome sequences need to be supported by animal studies to confirm the origin of the infection, as well as to determine whether there is an intermediate host.
It is not an easy task for a virus to establish zoonotic transmission, and coronaviruses rarely leap from animal to human infection with high transmissibility. There is even less chance to see a coronavirus leap directly from bats to humans. To infect new hosts, mutations need to occur with the viral surface proteins and/or envelope and structural genes, so that the mutated viruses can bind and enter the cells of new species, and efficiently complete the replication cycles in the new hosts.
Some scientists have argued that coronaviruses can jump directly to humans, without mutating or passing through an intermediate species. However, an intermediate host was clearly needed to establish zoonotic transmission to humans in the previous outbreaks of coronaviruses. Many studies suggested that the bat coronavirus jumped from its natural host bats to civets and then to humans during the 2003 SARS outbreak, and it jumped from bats to camels and then to humans for the MERS outbreak. So, civets and camels would serve as intermediate hosts for zoonotic transmission.
Because bats were not sold at the Huanan market in Wuhan—the epicenter of the infection—at the time of the outbreak, this suggests the existence of another intermediate animal host that may have transferred the virus to humans.
What is the most puzzling is that there have been no reports on the testing of animal samples collected in any epicenters in Wuhan, especially at the Huanan seafood market, to identify what animals might be the host or intermediate hosts of this novel Wuhan coronavirus.



"If Chinese authorities refuse to disclose testing data for animal samples, it could imply an intentional cover-up of the true origin of the 2019-nCoV outbreak"



Beijing Under Partial Lock Down As Virus Death Toll Tops 900; More Than 40,000 Infected

Exiled Chinese billionaire says true death toll closer to 50k, 1.5 million infected





"The death rate is up to 5% - the harrowing admission of a Wuhan doctor"




400 million under quarantine. Major cities on lockdown.
Wuhan Crematorium running 24/7 (30 furnaces!)

Something doesnt add up that's for sure.

[fenners66] 10/2/2020 09:40

Countries do not shut down for the Flu.

The stats currently quote 910 deaths - but only 3500 or so recovered.
Over 6000 in serious condition
So what will the deaths be among those 6000+ ?

I think the Chinese are trying to get this under control so that when the new infections are small they will continue to report the deaths that perhaps have already occurred.

That will smooth the stats.
But if its not brought under control they will have the cumulative under reported deaths to add in and then it will look much worse.

[edmundshaw] 09/2/2020 18:16

28 countries at least with Coronavirus cases. Death rate is probably between 2 and 5% - but stats out of China are not very well trusted.

A LOT of Chinese production is shut down. That is obviously going to affect every developed country as China is the principal "workshop of the world".

Transmissibility of the virus is high, and it is mutagenic at around the level of colds and flu (it has a single strand RNA genome - the new virus has the biggest known viral genome at 32 kilobases, so perhaps a lot to mutate) - if it spreads anough and is still around next year there could be a new version to contend with.

I am definitely not laid back about this one, nor about the sluggish response from our government.