Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[someuwin] 14/10/2010 11:18

Re: Jimbo's post 601

MML have today announced they will be moving to the main market on 28th October.

[cantonblue] 14/10/2010 11:15

Jimbo

Thanks for your advice - appreciated.

[someuwin] 14/10/2010 09:55

...I notice reults came out on 22nd Sept last year, so I guess they could be out any time now.

[morgan freedman] 14/10/2010 09:32

Are we not due results around about now?

[jimbo55] 14/10/2010 01:36

cantonblue, from previous experience of witnessing these moves, a spike up ahead of the anticipated announcement, maybe culminating on the day of the move. This is usually followed by a fall as the new listing becomes the norm and the excitement subsides.

Watch MML closely over the next month or two. They are likely to announce a move to the main market from AIM. You'll be able to see what happens first-hand.

[cantonblue] 13/10/2010 22:23

One other question, all being well after the launch, what (if anything) would the likely impact upon the share price be should AVN make the jump from the AIM to the main market?

Please forgive my naivity!

[cantonblue] 13/10/2010 22:08

Am new to this thread and to AVN generally.

I can see that the launch date of the satellite is likely to be a key share price event. Does anyone know of a recent 'idiots guide' to AVN and their potential?

Perhaps a media article of somekind? (I've seen the working lunch feature).

Thanks in anticipation boys and girls.

[someuwin] 12/10/2010 12:41

I've been looking back at a previous Inmarsat launch to see what knid of newsflow we can expect.

As you can see it may take several announcements over a few weeks as each step of the commisioning is successfully achieved. Although I have no doubts the launch will be a complete success, we must not underestimate what a major step this will be for the company.

That is why I am expecting the launch to be met with a significant re-rating of the share price too!




* 7th November 2005 RNS (Updated satellite launch date)
Confirming that launch will be 8th November.


* 8th November 2005 RNS (Successful Inmarsat-4 Launch)
"Following today's successful launch of the Inmarsat-4 F2 satellite, Inmarsat ... is pleased to announce that it has successfully acquired the satellite and is now controlling it via its ground station network."



* 18th November 2005 RNS (Up-date: Inmarsat-4 Satellite)
"Successful Deployment for Inmarsat-4 Satellite Solar panels and reflector now deployed; critical phase completed without any problems

Inmarsat ... has announced the deployment of the solar arrays and reflector on its second Inmarsat-4 satellite. The satellite, which was launched on 8th November, has now successfully completed one of the most critical stages in preparing for its operational life.

The deployments followed a series of engine burns to position the satellite in geosynchronous orbit. Inmarsat's Satellite Control Centre in London then stabilised the satellite and locked its attitude to the Earth, before drifting it into an orbital testing position at 8 degrees East. It will now undergo several weeks of comprehensive tests, before being moved towards its operational position at 53 degrees West over the Americas."

[naeclue] 12/10/2010 12:18

I'm assuming that the launch date is around November 15th, (I suppose the 25th isn't a world away) as per RNS:



Ho hum, think we'll tread water until the launch.

[ib1905] 12/10/2010 11:20

And finally - just for fun because no one is speaking today here is where it will all happen on 25 November ...

[ib1905] 12/10/2010 08:43

And just to help my own niggles I thought this was helpful re insurance issues..

[ib1905] 12/10/2010 08:04

Thanks goneawol - I hadn't seen the coverage map before, impressive. as for the worriers here, why would this satellit launch go wrong when the launch record is so good - the satellite and launch vehicle don't know your money is riding on it... have faith and get a profit!! Good luck to al - based on solid investment thinking. IB

[goneawol] 11/10/2010 23:31

25 November?



(Updated today, see 'Launches in 2010')

[carver66] 11/10/2010 21:05

Yes- there is a risk. I have a core holding which i will throw on the table and take my chances with the launch. I have funds set aside to buy more - it i can get in quick enough - once successful launch is confirmed. Split is about 30-70.

[someuwin] 11/10/2010 11:59

24 trading days to go...

[share_shark] 11/10/2010 07:56

I think that is a very fair view chrissey and thanks.

[chrissey] 10/10/2010 14:27

I don't know where the number came from re the likely drop in value if the launch is a failure but what I do recall, perhaps others can confirm, is that the insured value for the loss of Hylas 1 is approx 90M implying that, other projects aside, the value of AVN would drop significantly to less than 150p a share.

throw back in the subsequent launch of Hylas 2 in the next year or so and you can maybe reach 200p-300p assuming that they can transition the value of the contracts with H1?

The likelihood of a failure is small but possible, therefore I believe that the current share price is understandably factoring this risk and for me, post successful launch I believe we will see 750p quickly and then a steady rise, based on a fair p/e to 1000p-1100p without much difficulty.

I have been buying steadily and quite comfortably from 168p through to 550p I am personally happy with the risk/reward but I can understand the reluctance of those that aren't.

Reflect also, once the satallite in in Space, if there are any technical issues, it isn't like calling the AA or RAC!

I suspect there are enough potential concerns that deter a few people.

We can all speculate, my view is based on what I feel, if I knew today that the launch would be a success and the satallite would be put into service without problems and if the price was then going to go to 1000p quickly, I would be buying like crazy at the current price!

Good luck to all holders

[dolores123] 09/10/2010 12:57

Re Jimbo's earlier post re false rumours please note that on launch day you will be able to see the launch live on the Arianespace webcast - just get logged on in advance

[share_shark] 08/10/2010 20:11

Satcom PR
news. Again pretty picture and "ready for take off".

[share_shark] 08/10/2010 19:39

Pitfalls and perils of stock picking on Aim
By Ellen Kelleher

Published: October 8 2010 18:37 | Last updated: October 8 2010 18:37

Stock pickers who believe small companies will recover quickest after the recession have been showing greater interest in the Alternative Investment Market (Aim) this year, following the junior market's 22.3 per cent rise since January. But analysts warn that private investors will need to do more research into Aim as new foreign companies join the market.

Chilton Taylor, head of capital markets at the accountancy firm Baker Tilly, says: "Aim is a market for share-pickers. It's a market for small, growing companies which should be subject to more scrutiny and a particular investment criteria. Some of these companies have done very well, but others have not."

EDITOR'S CHOICE
General Capital leaves Aim by folding its nomad's tent - Apr-24Junior market pins liquidity hopes on VCT changes - Apr-17Small caps begin to turn their backs on Aim - Mar-30Aim shares are a poorer tax shelter for family riches - Sep-06Party over as investors walk away from Aim - Sep-03Jarlway set to quit Aim - Sep-02Among the top performers over the past three years are: Sirius Petroleum, the oil and gas explorer, which is up 2,900 per cent; Niche Group, an investment company with interests in oil exploration projects, up 1,061 per cent; and Rock­hopper Exploration, the North Falkland Basin oil and gas exploration company, up 770 per cent.

Nevertheless, analysts stress that Aim poses considerable risks and careful stock selection is required.

One of the main worries that Aim investors face is the prospect of a company de-listing or moving to the main market.

Robert Corden, a small companies analyst with the broker Charles Stanley points out that the value of investors' shares is usually diluted when a company is taken private.

Before this happens, all investors are usually given the chance to sell their stakes at a particular time, but this pushes prices down. "Unless you know what you're doing, private investors shouldn't buy into the very small companies," Corden says. "There are a lot of companies on Aim that no one follows."

Close to 500 companies have left Aim since the number quoted on the market peaked in 2007. As a result, by the end of August 2010, there were only 112 companies with a market capitalisation of less than £2m – well under half the number a year ago – and 481 with a market capitalisation of less than £10m, compared with 806 at the end of 2008.

Among the companies opting to leave in the last quarter were: drug developer Fulcrum Pharma; Allied Healthcare International, a provider of healthcare staff; Raven Russia, a property investment company specialising in Russian commercial property; and West China Cement, a cement producer operating in Shaanxi province.

For investors with an existing stake, delisting poses problems. But, in other ways, the Darwinian shrinking of the Aim market is beneficial – as the remaining companies are theoretically fitter and have better growth prospects. According to Andrew Buchanan, fund manager with Octopus Investments, "They are better companies than they were."

Charles Stanley's Corden agrees, arguing that investors should avoid buying into companies with a ­market capitalisation of less than £15m. "The truth is that you are likely to do ­better by following a ­company that is a bit larger," he says.

Aim-listed companies that he likes are Avanti Communications, a satellite broadband firm that has a £500m market capitalisation, and Deltex Medical, which produces technology to measure blood flows and is ­valued at £18m. "The government's medical division, Nice, has just come out with a report on Deltex, which says it could be used by up to 150,000 people per year in the UK," Corden notes. "That would greatly improve its revenues."

A pick-up in merger and acquisition activity accounted for a significant number of the Aim de- listings that took place in the past two years. However, new companies still see Aim as a viable way to conduct fundraising. Research published this week by law firm Trowers & Hamlins and accountants UHY Hacker Young shows that the number of new entrants to Aim has risen during the past three months – up to 16 in the third quarter from 13 in the second.

"As with the rest of the economy, Aim's recovery is proving not to be a sudden bounce back, but more of a slow crawl," says Chris Lowry, partner at UHY Hacker Young. "It could be some years before we see companies joining at the rate we saw pre-recession."

Tax breaks on Aim companies also continue to attract investment. All Aim companies are deemed "unlisted" for tax purposes, which makes them exempt from inheritance tax (IHT) once the shares have been held for two years, under the business property relief (BPR) rules. .

[rockafella2] 08/10/2010 10:34

Interesting writeup -

[level 2 ate my hamster] 08/10/2010 10:28

IG Index not offering guaranteed stop bets on this one any more...

[someuwin] 08/10/2010 10:06

...Can't read it all. can you post it here?

[strollingmolby] 08/10/2010 09:33

I posted this over on Stockopedia



Would welcome your comments, either here or there.

Cheers,

SM

[m.t.glass] 08/10/2010 09:23

If you can find two spreadbetting companies willing to offer a guaranteed stoploss on this company - you could place a big upbet with one and a big downbet with the other, on the premise that the premiums paid, combined with the known loss on the losing bet, will be outweighed by a very strong move on your winning bet. But only on stocks where the outcome of a scheduled event is confidently expected to have a dramatic effect. This could be one such stock.