Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[jennis2002] 30/8/2012 21:20

i remain long too...but anticipate that news could be lacking for a month or two.....so will top up again at 2.80 ish hopefully, should have sold at 4.30 and nearly did but was too greedy. oh well least my average is only 3.10

[dunluce] 30/8/2012 21:13

I remain long here but happy to see some further retrace as an opprtunity to top up.

[rathlindri] 30/8/2012 19:08

Bring it on...

[yorgi] 30/8/2012 19:05

Not out of the question I agree.

However I don't think David Williams will want to let go for one minute, so any one wanting AVN would have to pay a high price.......as I comment not out of the question but I tend to think unlikely.

[volvo] 30/8/2012 18:58

No, not too early. Bought another 68k recently............after talking to Rutherford Scientific.............this is the one............apparently.

When the new middle eastern war starts the military want the majority of H2.

EXPECT A BUY OUT................

[yorgi] 30/8/2012 18:27

I think I dived in a tad early......never mind :-)

[2350220] 30/8/2012 16:55

Too true Jeffian.
My SIPP average is £5.60 or so.
But at least my Spread Bets are around £2.80 so at least they are still in profit, but for how much longer if this is going down at 10 - 15p a day?

John

[jeffian] 30/8/2012 16:50

I'd feel better about that if I hadn't paid nearer to 600p already!

80/

[verymaryhinge] 30/8/2012 16:25

I added earlier !! Doh.

[yorgi] 30/8/2012 15:31

Going to bounce in my view taken a few for shrt term trade :-)

[wilksey1] 30/8/2012 15:25

hello john bit like yourself took mine off the table for now as i wanted to keep some of my profit, keep looking at the charts and i get the feeling 300p-310 is on the cards whats your thoughts on that all am i miles away.

[yorgi] 30/8/2012 14:47

Agreed John just bonkers :-)

But we all know the markets can be bonkers at times, look at at XEL these last few days where for weeks in was struggling around mid 70's......and the oil was there the whole time !

[2350220] 30/8/2012 14:37

Bonkers.
Two satellites up safely. One already earing income and we are draining away at 10p a day.

John

[johncsimpson] 30/8/2012 13:12

nightspot be very careful with any stop loses you put in place. One 'bear raid' and you'll be taken out. I realise it's difficult when on holiday and you're away from your computer but be careful.

Re current price it's not looking good at all. I've made a second sale. I'd have to say, my charts have let me down on the buying side and only time will tell if they've let me down on the sell side to.

Have updated my post 298.

[johncsimpson] 30/8/2012 08:02

Some quick updates:

I had said that I was going to start my own thread and actually went as far as creating one here on ADVFN but I've had it removed. (Not normal ADVFN practice but as there were no posts, there were no issues, so they agreed). Things change and I may come back to this . . .


BOR
I managed to get in a bit of a mess with this last Friday. Having sold at 37 plus in the morning for a 70% profit since approx. July, I then bought half my holding back at 34ish in the afternoon only to sell them on Tuesday at 29ish for a 15% loss because the charts said this was the right thing to do. And the charts were right, at least with the sell because I bought back later that day for sub 24. They closed on the day ay 25.6 though it now looks as though they will revisit this 24 area again today and possibly down to 22.

HIBU (formally YELL)

I've been monitoring HIBU for about three weeks and I said last week that I thought this would bottom at 110ish. Got it wrong because it's been down towards 104 and the current charts say 100 is possible. But it's only wrong in the sense that it's a point at which the share becomes of interest and not a place to necessarily buy. Indeed my other general indicators do not yet support a buy. The reason for my interest is because another poster who doesn't think much of my charts has been buying for several months and possibly as far back as April and May when YELL was well above 3p (as high as 6p in February).

BPC

Still has me worried. It's not gone as the charts were predicting a month or so ago and I had 490k at one time about three weeks ago - now halved and if the offer goes down to 6 then I'll probably look to unload another 100k

added: BPC have started in auction. That doesn't look good . . .

further added at 9:04: meant to say if offer goes down to 6.99 i.e. below 7

RMP

Haven't sold since the fall on Tuesday and they're impossible to chart right now. I wish I'd off-loaded some yesterday when they put on 10%

RENE

I keep adding small chunks here as and when the price is in the 3.2 or below area. This share is hard to chart – low volume and high volatility so it's more a buy based on fundamentals and hope and being a bio could 'explode' with any good news. A bit like junior oilers when they hit the black stuff.

[johncsimpson] 30/8/2012 05:53

Re chart above. I've removed the other support line which is no longer of any use but forgot to take out the black circle (28th Aug) that marked the cross over. I've about run out of time for the moment (I've been at this for over two hours and I need a couple of hours sleep) but will do it for next time.

added: Oh, and as buywell says - a lot of shares they rise on anticipation of an event ... then decline after it. That is one generalisation that is almost wholly true. IMHO the next major announcement will not take place until after all testing is done and even if that's ahead of schedule, say by a month, its still five weeks away. A lot can happen in one week never mind five.

[johncsimpson] 30/8/2012 05:47

Hello again nightspot

This is the chart at the end of yesterday.

The MACD is looking poor again and the price is at a point where if it does break down then there's a chance that AVN goes into reverse.

If this actually starts to materialise then 'reverse' could take us (and you're not going to like this) back to the 250 area and this can happen very quickly and all those positives noted in a), b), c) and d) of your post 293 will not stop it.

[johncsimpson] 30/8/2012 05:46

Sorry - messed up

[johncsimpson] 30/8/2012 05:25

Hello nightspot - re your post 293, I'll comment by referring to your numbers and letters where possible and pre-empt everything by saying I don't put myself forward as an expert. Far from it. I do and have made expensive mistakes in the past as well as some good ones. (Clearly, I wouldn't be here if I was constantly losing money nor if I were onto some methodology that was a sure-fire winner). And in no way should anything I say or give an opinion on be seen as financial advice.

I think you're looking for black and white answers and broad generalisations that are always true. In my experience the black and white answer doesn't exist, but some of the generalisations that charting throws up do (IMHO) exist but not for all shares or for all of the time. It's finding shares that seem to work and interpreting the 'data' and just, more importantly, moving on when it no longer 'works' or holds true.

To illustrate your comment about MACDs rising and falling in unison with price look at the following graph. This is AVN over a three year period but it could be any share:



AVN is rising from Apr 09 to Jan 10, then from July 10 to Dec 10. Or you could say AVN is rising from Apr 09 to Dec 10 and ignore that flat bit from Feb 10 to July 10. If you look at the MACD it doesn't stay static but goes up and down. OK you could it goes up and down in unison with the monthly (or whatever) price changes but my point is you can't set or have a rule.

You also need to know how the MACD has been calibrated and here you don't because I use unconventional time periods. But then I'm looking for short term trades . . .

Your second point about AVN supposedly being in 'blue sky territory' again doesn't necessarily hold true for the same reasons. The triangulation pattern, pennant or whatever, is just a pattern formation that usually (but not always) precedes a strong movement. Conventional wisdom will say that the price will continue in the same direction as at the time of the pennant forming. So in the case of AVN and in its current cycle that would be upwards.

I can only make comments to 'justify' what I saw, how I interpreted what I saw and what I then did re my trading.

So with AVN there was a good chance based on the triangular pattern (that is surely clear for all to see) and whose start dates back to 12th / 13th July but doesn't actually become apparent until the beginning of August and then becomes more apparent as time moves on – that there was a good chance that as the support and resistance lines converged, then AVN would break out in an upward direction. (Long sentence but hope that's clear).

It looked like doing this on the 17th August and then 'true to plan' did break through on the 20th (which, with the weekend, was the following trading day). I made note of this in post 262 (20th Aug) and started to buy back in intending to add as AVN headed north. But the 'breakout' stalled and the price has now reversed back to the 'once resistance line' which it has now broken back through. This reversal immediately set off warning bells but then there is always the option / possibility for the price to bounce back off the 'once resistance line' i.e. so that that resistance line now becomes support. But it didn't. So now AVN is right back to the original support line and did on several occasions yesterday drop down through it. I wasn't at my computer at the time but it's clear from the intraday graph, plus because I had to be out yesterday afternoon I'd put a stop loss in to sell approx. half my current holding should AVN fall below 360, It was triggered and so 1,200 shares went at 359. C'est la vie.

[melody9999] 29/8/2012 22:24

if testing goes to plan, no need for AVN to announce until complete.
if there is a problem, then AVN should announce this immediately as a material factor.

[blue forever] 29/8/2012 18:05

I don`t remember any mention of 3 weeks. As far as I recall,it was always 3 months so no surprises so far.It may be less but we shall just have to wait and see. Maybe September will bring about a bit more interest and rise in the share price,let`s hope so anyway.

[backmarker] 29/8/2012 16:48

for the conspiratorialists....

testing of H-1 took about 3 months, longer than we expected, but somewhere in there it was suggested that part of this was to test certain things for the military.

the first mention we had - some months ago now - about testing for H-2 stated that it would take a lot less time than H-1, and again somewhere in the mix I think 3 weeks or so was mentioned.

then just after launch we had the statement that H-2 testing would in fact take 3 MONTHS !!!

well, what has lengthened the testing time? could it be some new military reqts ? does GCHQ have a hotline to our CEO ? is the fact that H-2 (with a steerable beam) can cover certain sensitive parts of the mid-east, etc.

of course we'll never find out - at least not for 50 years. but it does make you stop and think. am I just paranoid ?... or Tom Cruise,.. which is pretty much the same thing.

[dolores123] 29/8/2012 15:21

Thanks Yorgi.