Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[saracen3] 24/2/2023 12:45

Atalaya are vulnerable to a bid from a Major who wants copper in a jurisdiction away

from troubled South America.

[robmcelf2] 23/2/2023 19:25

Will we see a delayed share price rise from todays news tomorrow? Let's see.

[saracen3] 23/2/2023 10:23

Some big lines of stock being traded, guessing Canaccord buying.

[saracen3] 23/2/2023 09:45

Thanks Tommy

[tommyttrades] 23/2/2023 09:29

Canaccord going for a rerating..

Couple of weeks ago raised TP to 570p.....


23/02/23 (10 pgs edited.).

Maintain BUY rating, raising
target price to 600p (from 570p), based on a combination of 1x P/NPV and 12-month
fwd EBITDA growth.

Following conversations with the company,we note that the technical study appears
to have erred on the side of conservatism on a number of fronts. We understand that
the power price used to estimate operating costs was ~€100/MWh, which ignores the
new PPA and solar farm under construction.

The company also believes that the capex included by the technical consultant is
on the high side (in particular, ~€100m in plant capital), and while the report
indicates falling production and grades in 2024 (due to no low grade stockpiling), the company expects production from Cerro Colorado to continue around current levels

[saracen3] 23/2/2023 07:33

Berenberg reaffirms 470p target

We view this as a positive release from the company due to the expansion in production and the lower-than-expected costs, which look to be using conservative assumptions. We currently value at Riotinto at EUR820m including a 50% risk factor for the upside potential from the deposits. We have written previously that we do not believe the market correctly values this potential and we would expect the release to go some way towards correcting that. The near-term catalysts for the stock should be the permitting to mine at San Dionisio, alongside permitting at the company’s other key project, Proyecto Touro. External catalysts should include Spanish power prices (which presented a key headwind to the stock in 2022) continuing to abate, we think. We will revise our numbers to account for the PEA in due course.
● We value the company at 1x NAV and 4x EBITDA, yielding our GBp470 price target and underpinning our Buy rating.

[scepticalinvestor] 23/2/2023 07:26

Oh dear, not good - missed the EVTM

[waterloo01] 23/2/2023 07:18

Non too shabby. Reads well on 1st glance

[robmcelf2] 23/2/2023 07:17

Nice announcement today! I know we don't realise the big gains till 2027 but if we could just get Touro permitted in the meantime the money will be absolutely rolling in for ATYM!

[brockwl2] 12/2/2023 17:14

Last month has seen electricity prices increase from the very low prices at the end of the year, and early January due to exceptional winds.
However highest I've seen during that time has been 143. Which is a lot lower than last year.
Currently 133.

[tommyttrades] 10/2/2023 09:27

Highlights from 03/02/23 ( 16pgs)

 New PPA from 1 Jan 2023: ~31% of power needs which we estimate at €50-
55/MWh
 Solar plant expected 3Q23: ~20-25% of power needs
 Spot market: remainder of power needs, with prices averaging <€100/MWh
YTD-23


We have excluded the higher grades in the polymetallic zone, and the recovery of any
by-product credits until the PEA is released with further detail. The result is that we
assume San Dionisio can lift production by ~13ktpa (net of Cerro Colorado material
displaced at the plant) for total production of ~65-70 ktpa.
We have now incorporated some of the upside potential from San Dionisio open pit
into our assumptions, specifically:
 Ore from the copper zone to commence in 2Q24, at a head grade of 0.7% Cu
(includes 10% dilution assumption)
 San Dionisio ramps up to 1/3 of plant capacity (~5 Mtpa)
 Capital costs of €20m, including pre-stripping and moving of some infrastructure

The changes have increased our NPV/share estimate to 674p (from 454p). The steep
increase in NPV/share is mostly due to the increase in ore grades, and as a result of
a rollover in NPV date (given the new year).

The higher earnings trajectory we
see has resulted in a significant increase in our target price to 570p (from
385p), based on a combination of 1x P/NPV and 12-month forward expected
EBITDA growth. Maintain BUY rating.

[estienne] 09/2/2023 11:55

They seem to be down around 25% since the new year

[sithuk] 09/2/2023 10:29

The LME stock levels are dropping to 5 year lows. How long until Cu price pops in response?hTTp://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html

[saracen3] 06/2/2023 16:03

Thanks Tommy looking good

[tommyttrades] 06/2/2023 15:48

Still here?

Anyone wondering why the share price has been rising ...

Canaccord issued an updated buy and new 570p TARGET..
Blending in with San Dionisio, better grades

[chubb24] 02/2/2023 12:58

Copper price remain solid. Just have to be patient with this one.

[gekks] 18/1/2023 08:31

CU still marching up $4.2

[robmcelf2] 17/1/2023 15:24

Nothing too unexpected in the update today. Good to see production steady. Had hoped for slightly higher 2023 guidance but with higher copper prices and lower costs, EPS should appreciate considerably. Will be great when Solar farm up and running, Elix up and running and permitting for Touro gets the green light! Not to mention permitting for other mining areas to enhance grade and push up production

[gekks] 17/1/2023 07:49

Great Update - and now exploring Wind Power too...

[qs99] 17/1/2023 07:34

Wow, that is some upgrade on TP....nearly 50% ffs! DYOR

[saracen3] 17/1/2023 07:33

Berenberg raises target to 470p.

● Model changes and valuation: We update our model for the quarter and push through our new price deck. As noted above, we believe that the headwinds of 2022 for Atalaya should abate in 2023 and we reaffirm our Buy rating with a price target of GBp470/share (from GBp310/share). We continue to believe that the market does not ascribe value to the company’s growth projects at Riotinto and at Proyecto Touro. The shares are currently trading at 0.63x NAV and 3.4x EV/EBITDA with a 7% dividend and 16% FCF yield in 2023. In this note, we transfer coverage to Charlie Rothbarth.

[robmcelf2] 14/1/2023 13:53

In my previous post I meant a re-rating not treating. Don't you just love predictive text!!!

[robmcelf2] 14/1/2023 13:52

I agree Gekks that this could be a very exciting year for ATYM after a very challenging 2022. If energy costs are much lower this year (will be interested if they are going to pursue wind turbines or not) then it looks like China's reopening will support a higher copper price for some time to come. I truly believe that if Touro does get permitted soon then ATYM could really be in for a treating.Looking forward to hearing about Elix update too!

[gekks] 12/1/2023 13:33

very quiet here considering the recent performance - still loads coming this year - solar plant - E-Lix commissioning by Q1 2023...