Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[source] 16/2/2016 23:06

Guys what would be a good entry point do you think given what seem like gaps at 790p.

Would that look like a safe entry price to you?

Maybe we'll get that over the next few days/week?

Regards,
Source.

[topicel] 16/2/2016 21:15

Indeed, rinse and repeat. Hence why shares go up and down. Lol.

Simple manipulation on the supply and demand side. Always makes sense with a good company such as AHT hence why it went to £11 recently and has been depressed since - along with other macro reasons too of course!

Little doubt their is a target in mind on the way back up. £9.65 per chance?

Topicel

[bracke] 16/2/2016 19:58

2flat

Now I understand what you are saying. Yes a distinct possibility if not a probability. Accumulate at the lower levels and when the accumulation is complete commence covering the shorts to push up the share price and when the upward pressure ceases....distribute.Same old, same old.

[2flatpack] 16/2/2016 19:49

Bracke
What I am suggesting is they have driven the price down from 1200, most of the shorting happened above 1000.
If they want to take their profit they have to buy below 1000.
6.54 % is about 33M shares.If they tried to buy this quantity the price would fly.
I assume they have retained some share during the shorting period.
As most days of decline have been on a average volume days 2-3 mil.above this could be when thy were buying
I think they are currently buying and when the price rises too quickly they sell.Which dissuades non-cartel members from joining in .
I read an article about Blackrock, one of their tactics was to short companies they were interested in whilst buying shares .It had the effect of depressing the price and as a hedge to their investment .
Cheers

[bracke] 16/2/2016 18:49

2flat

That's convoluted!

It would not make sense to short a share merely to control the share price to cover their shorts.

Reasons to short:

1 Because you think that the share price will fall.

2 As a hedge against shares that you hold.

3 In an attempt to lower the share price to buy at a lower share price

[2flatpack] 16/2/2016 18:39

bracke
Could it be the shorters are controlling the price so they can buy shares to cover their shorts.
A controlled exit.
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Source
Thank for that, but I thought you had some real dirt on them.
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Cheers

[bracke] 16/2/2016 17:15

Interesting to consider todays candle with the volume.

The share price gapped up at the open but then dropped back to fill the gap before moving back up again. Buyers won the battle but it took fair volume to do so.

Perhaps buyers are looking to 'break' shorters into covering shorts and thus lifting the share price further.

[source] 16/2/2016 17:13

Hi flat packThe founder of Blue Ridge Capital is John Griffin. He is believed to have been a "right-hand man" to the billionaire hedge fund manager Robertson. Blue Ridge Capital generally targets "absolute returns" by investing in and short-selling companies, with a focus on "going long" (i.e. buying the stock of companies rather than selling it short.) Blue Ridge's investment thesis is based on fundamental analysis, and focuses on companies that have competitive advantages in their industries, while shorting those thought to have "fundamental problems." The principal, Griffin, is highly compensated and after a 65% return on the fund in 2007 he reportedly made $625 million. That was their best year, however: after surviving the financial crisis with a loss of only 8%, the fund has since underperformed the S&P 500.Hope that helps,Regards,Source.

[bracke] 16/2/2016 16:57

Good day Topicel

I was thinking more of a candelabra if the results are better than expected but a guttering candle if they only as forecast. As for failure to meet the forecast, the candle will be well and truly snuffed.

[2flatpack] 16/2/2016 16:55

Source
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Blue ridge capital has a bit of a reputation.
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You cannot leave it at that.
What reputation?
Cheers

[dealer1972] 16/2/2016 16:51

i have a nasty feeling we will see that gap at 805p closed prior to results. however then onwards and upwards to 965p+ ;)

[source] 16/2/2016 16:48

Blue ridge capital has a bit of a reputation. Seems they're betting on a turn in the cycle for Ashstead (like it seems to have done for its other USA competitors). Blue ridge also seems to be the one that is increasing its short over time. Regards, Source.

[2flatpack] 16/2/2016 16:44

a gap of candlestick is that a chandelier?
Cheers

[topicel] 16/2/2016 16:33

Yep, I agree Mjcferguson. The previous quarterly results' forward comments have not been withdrawn despite the drop in share price due to wider macro factors. Consequently we must have faith that all is still good in the AHT garden.

If the shooters wish to fight the markets with another possible set of great figures then that is their choice. The wise choice is to close in the next fortnight and potentially re-open afterwards. Most investors are looking for good solid companies with strong results in these volatile times so even then I would imagine many would continue to hold and buy.

But what do I know? There'll be a gap of candlestick or some such to make news and potential meaningless, ain't that right Bracke? ;)

Topicel

[mjcferguson] 16/2/2016 15:04

Hopefully there will now be run up to third quarter results due two weeks today.We know profit will be well up on last year especially backed up by Janet Yellens statement that construction in USA is holding up well.

[2flatpack] 16/2/2016 14:58

Seems to be grinding higher even with the shorters attention.
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Short Interest Tracker.
Adelphi Capital LLP 0.70% ↑ 0.10% 2016-02-03
Alyeska Investment Group 0.60% ↑ 0.10% 2016-01-29
Blue Ridge Capital, L.L.C 1.23% ↑ 0.09% 2016-02-10
CPMG, Inc 1.42% ↑ 0.04% 2016-01-28
Coatue Management, L.L.C 1.32% ↑ 0.05% 2016-02-12
Maverick Capital, Ltd 0.51% ↓ -0.23% 2016-02-02
ODEY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLP 0.76% ↑ 0.26% 2016-02-11
Total 6.54%
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Cheers

[2flatpack] 15/2/2016 18:29

Deeper and deeper into the abyss.
Short Interest Tracker.
Adelphi Capital LLP 0.70% ↑ 0.10% 2016-02-03
Alyeska Investment Group 0.60% ↑ 0.10% 2016-01-29
Blue Ridge Capital, L.L.C 1.23% ↑ 0.09% 2016-02-10
CPMG, Inc 1.42% ↑ 0.04% 2016-01-28
Coatue Management, L.L.C 1.27% ↑ 0.16% 2016-02-11
Maverick Capital, Ltd 0.51% ↓ -0.23% 2016-02-02
ODEY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLP 0.76% ↑ 0.26% 2016-02-11
Total 6.49%
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cheers

[bracke] 15/2/2016 18:28

It means that there was no follow through following the gap up. Buyers and sellers were even. Volume was 2 million, ave daily vol is 2.5 million.

Bargain hunters are not yet lining up to buy.

It will be interesting to see what it does during the rest of the week.

[source] 15/2/2016 18:08

Is that some sort of signal?Regards,Source.

[bracke] 15/2/2016 18:00

The share price gapped up on opening and generally moved sideways for the rest of the day to finish on a doji within a tight range at +2.05%.

[bracke] 15/2/2016 14:15

A gap fill back to Fridays close might be useful. It would give those who missed the chance to buy at 805 another chance to do so. It would then illustrate the level of support there was at that zone.

[bracke] 15/2/2016 13:36

Disco

It's like most things that require practice. You read, you come onto boards like this, you learn from others, you practice and over a number of years looking at lots of charts you learn to see the picture.... and you never stop learning.

It's not a 'five minute job', it takes years.

[discodave4] 15/2/2016 13:10

Bracke,Very much appreciated, will do some more TA research to firm up what signals I will use (still think 200SMA will def be one though).How come I looked at WKP and saw the opposite to AHT until it fell below SMA200!, that's why your an elite guru and I'm not (or likely to be!).Have a good day.DD

[bracke] 15/2/2016 13:07

Source

yes and then some!

[source] 15/2/2016 12:58

Hmm - however positively their recent Q2 was a pretty good trading update & an 'above expectations profits' statement thrown in. Hopefully more of the same then! :)

Regards,
Source.