Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 15/10/2014 15:48

My Post 50064 - 09 October

"Not wanting to cause panic among the brethren but there is a larger gap some way lower."
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I wasn't expecting it to get there, certainly not so fast.

The gap I was referring to is at 870. It will need to dip below the Daily SMA 200 to fill the gap. There are other gaps lower down but perhaps best not to go there just yet.

[bracke] 15/10/2014 14:00

Anyone who thinks that gaps are of no assistance to trading/investing should look at the price action over the past ten days.

[discodave4] 15/10/2014 13:01

Many thanks Bracke for taking the time to reply.......learning slowly!.GLDD

[bracke] 15/10/2014 12:40

Diso

Yes 937 is the Daily SMA 100. It needs to close and hold above that level to provide some confidence that the drop is complete.

If you look at a Daily chart with SMA 50, SMA 100 and SMA 200 you will see that over the last ten trading days the share price has reacted to them. First as support but when broken they become resistance.

Today the share price did break above the Daily SMA 100 but having filled the gap it dropped back. It is still holding above the Daily SMA 200.

[discodave4] 14/10/2014 22:31

Pleasantly surprised it closed up today, especially after the U.S. markets and URI (-7.7%) tanked last evening, URI up 2.4% today.Bracke - Does AHT need to close above about 937?GLDD

[bracke] 13/10/2014 18:15

SP closed in 'no man's land' i.e. between Daily SMA 200 and Daily SMA 100.

[bracke] 13/10/2014 15:48

Good day fenners

Nice to see you emerge from behind the sofa but I am not certain the nasty stuff is over.

A lot can happen from April to April. I hope it lasts long enough for you.

[fenners66] 13/10/2014 15:11

Bracke no stiff drink but maybe a coffee. As for the CGT I am only planning selling annual allowance each April so the timescales can be drawn out in years. The share price got ahead of target and a sale and buyback in <30 days even with CGT would have been advantageous but who can predict that well? As long as each Apfil we get there or there abouts so be it.
I believe the fundamentals are still improving that is the key.

[2flatpack] 13/10/2014 12:21

Bracke
Once again thanks for your time and effort .
Cheers

[bracke] 13/10/2014 12:04

Good day 2flat

There are two aspects to a Daily SMA 200.

1 You are correct it is a trend indicator but it illustrates the trend over 200 days which is approx one year. Spikes and short term volatility are evened out so that it is a good representation of share price movement and direction.

When the share price moves breaks and holds above or below the SMA 200 it indicates a probable change in price direction and a trend reversal.


2 The Daily SMA 200 is widely used as a guide to the share price direction so to some degree it is self fulfilling.

It often provides support or resistance.

Today the share price has moved up from the Daily SMA 200 but I suggest it is not 'out of the woods' until it moves and holds above the Daily SMA 100.

[2flatpack] 13/10/2014 11:14

Bracke
I have looked at the SMA 200 And find it is almost the same as the base line on my 3year ascending channel. I also note it has only been crossed once in three years ,and then only just . As I understand it, the SMA 200 is just a trend indicator which has dropped mainly because the II,s have sold, so why is breaking below it such a problem ?
cheers

[bracke] 11/10/2014 19:23

ian

Yes that 'b' word will have caused panic among the s/holders.

When fenners reads it he will need a number of 'stiff' drinks to recover.

[ianwwwhite] 11/10/2014 18:34

Shock! Horror!

Bracke... considering a buy????? I'm taking this as a strong sell signal no matter what the charts say!

[bracke] 11/10/2014 15:50

Good day optomistic


It was merely a momentary aberration. If there is any suggestion that it was anything more the matter will be placed in the hands of my legal representative.

I am now considering a buy.........I will allow you a little time to recover your composure after reading that.

On Friday the share price was supported at the Daily SMA 200 but resisted at the Daily SMA 100. A close below the former would suggest further downside and a close above the latter would give consideration to a buy.

[optomistic] 11/10/2014 15:25

Bracke, does your last post suggest that you were considering shorting AHT?
....naughty!!

[bracke] 11/10/2014 15:11

Disco

Making a few £s' here and there but once again missed the AHT drop. One day I will get it!

[discodave4] 11/10/2014 13:54

Bracke,Shorters must be doing ok........good luck to them.Hope your doing ok too.DD

[bracke] 11/10/2014 13:27

Disco

Thanks for apologies.

Given the number of shares sold by the major s/holders we can see why the share price has dropped as it has.

There is a thought that the market sell off is all part of a cunning plan to shake out holders in preparation for the traditional Santa Rally. Whether it is we will just have to wait and see.

[discodave4] 11/10/2014 12:34

Hope it's a correction rather than the start of a bear market......if next week doesn't improve then I'm off loading most of my PF :(DD

[bracke] 11/10/2014 11:13

fenners

You have been notable for your absence but I appreciate there is not much you can say apart from 'Oh drat' and similar expressions of concern.

The drop in share price from the high is approx 14% which I presume means it is still worthwhile you holding rather than take the capital gains hit.

If the market drop is just a pullback no great problem. If it is a reversal not so good.

This coming week should settle which of the above two it is.

[discodave4] 11/10/2014 11:08

Bracke,My mistake, apologies.DD

[bracke] 11/10/2014 11:00

Disco

22 August Societe Generale stated holding to be 26,138,033 (5.19%)

08 September Societe Generale stated holding to be 11,964,065 (2.37%)

Therefore reduction of 14,173,968.

Regards

MGG

[discodave4] 10/10/2014 20:30

Bracke,"since early September three major holders have reduced their shareholding". May misunderstand the context but the RNS 8th Sept stated that on 4th Sept Societe Generale were interested in a total of 11.9 million of its shares. I take this to mean they purchased the said shares.So only Legal & General plus Blackrock have reduced unless I'm mistaken - always happy to be corrected by the master gap guru!.DD

[bracke] 10/10/2014 16:04

2flat

The price action relative to the Daily SMA 200 is your first guide.

Since early September three major holders have reduced their share holding.

[2flatpack] 10/10/2014 16:00

Bracke
Now I have the choice of siting with my hand on the sell button, or sitting contemplating my navel pretending to be an unconcerned long term investor.
AS always thanks for taking the time to explain.
Cheers