Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[ianwwwhite] 30/7/2014 14:27

Well done bracke, remarkable prescience in signalling this current retrace!

I'm beginning to think there might be something in this TA stuff (lol!)

[bracke] 30/7/2014 14:16

Ref Post 49837


You will note that 920 has been reached. This was previously a s/r zone but not a particularly strong one. 900 may prove stronger.

[bracke] 29/7/2014 18:25

ian

I agree that barring something nasty appearing in the AHT wood shed all should be ok in the medium term but I am wary of looking too far ahead.

No offence was taken in relation to your AHT investing prowess.

I suggest that there are traders and investors on these threads and those who do both and with a variety of time frames.

As you say "to each his own". I fully agree.

[ianwwwhite] 29/7/2014 17:55

bracke

I fear that your prediction for AHT may well be right in the short/medium term, the market seems overdue for a correction, and AHT's price may well have got ahead of itself - however I am inclined to wait out any further short term corrections, in the belief that the company and its markets are currently fundamentally sound.

I think I have already demonstrated patience with this share, through thick and thin over 17 years!

Apologies for the comments regards returns for AHT, no offence, or bragging intended.

It sometimes seems to me that on some other boards, short term-ism rules, scalping a few pence here and there, and the value of 'buy and hold' strategies is under-appreciated, by those who prefer the cut and thrust of intra-day trading! ....to each his own!

[ianwwwhite] 29/7/2014 16:36

mjcferguson

I agree, and hopefully yourself included!

[mjcferguson] 29/7/2014 16:28

The Directors have certainly done very well out of the 2011 performance scheme but I suppose the shareholders have also done very well out of the performance.

[bracke] 29/7/2014 16:14

ian

"a bit more profit in the bag"
=============================

Yes, just a bit!!

And no tax to pay. One rule for the rich and s*d the poor.


Just had a thought. Perhaps the Directors saw my post suggesting the share price has due a 'chunky' retrace?

[ianwwwhite] 29/7/2014 15:54

bracke

You may well be right.

Nevertheless, I have taken the hint, and sold a few myself - average cost £1.05p, so £9.35 selling price puts a bit more profit in the bag, and as they are all held in an ISA, no Cap Gains worries.

I still have skin in the game, however!

[bracke] 29/7/2014 15:46

ian

Perhaps they thought it better to get it out of the way in one hit rather than over a week or two. Also a lot of other news about currently so maybe they thought theirs might be 'buried'.

[ianwwwhite] 29/7/2014 15:38

bracke,

I can understand their sells as part of a dispersal of risk strategy, but all directors together, 100% of allocations on vesting day? Seems to smack of indecent haste to me!

[bracke] 29/7/2014 15:25

ian

You can understand their sells. It is not a good idea to keep too many eggs in one basket no matter how good the basket.

[ianwwwhite] 29/7/2014 15:15

Concerned to see it reported by RNS that four directors sold their allocation of AHT shares yesterday immediately on vesting from the 2011 Company's Performance Share Plan scheme at 934p per share:

Geoff Drabble 406,176, (remaining holding 1,303,297)
Sat Dhaiwal 130,641, (398,375)
Brendan Horgan 163,049, (493,874)
Suzanne Wood 128,816, (208,805)

The share price seems to be holding up notwithstanding the announcement so far..

[bracke] 28/7/2014 15:32

2flat

My apologies I misunderstood.

No I have not opened an AHT short. It's a determined blighter but I stand by my previous post.

[2flatpack] 28/7/2014 15:00

bracke
Translation. I was asking if you had place a short, as your symbiotic relationship with AHT seem to get a reaction.
Always read your analysis and comment with interest. I only wish I understood half of them I am still searching for an idiots guide to investing (that work). Cheers

[bracke] 28/7/2014 14:23

Good afternoon 2flat

I don't give advice. I simply give my analysis.

The shorter time frames ie. up to 2 Hours indicate a possible rise but the 4 Hour and Daily suggest a fall.

Perhaps keep an eye on the DOW to ascertain if Wednesday, Thursday and Friday falls (total fall 153) which took it to the lower line of a rising wedge is end of fall or whether it wants more.

There is a lot of data from the US later in the week.

[2flatpack] 28/7/2014 14:02

Bracke
Good afternoon.
Is the short in play then?
Please advise when and if,as it will affect when I jump back in.
AS a non chartist I saw the top of my up channel to be at 950 and I see the bottom at 855 but ready to jump at the first signs, as I am getting withdrawal symptom's
Cheers

[2flatpack] 28/7/2014 08:50

Ian and Bracke
Very interesting thanks,
Cheers

[ianwwwhite] 27/7/2014 10:55

bracke

Thanks for your further comments regarding 'gap filling', which have added valuable context.

I will continue to watch with interest!

[bracke] 26/7/2014 16:04

2flat

OK. A few.

[bracke] 26/7/2014 16:03

ian

"I must admit I am just a little skeptical as to whether such gaps can be relied upon to be predictive, or whether it is sometimes a case of retro-fitted logic when gap filling occurs?"
===============================================================================

I certainly would not suggest basing a trading strategy purely on gap filling but they can be useful in determining likely intent.

I have watched gap fills on a number of shares and indices over a number of years. It is more than coincidence or retro-fitting that the price usually reverses once the gap is filled.

You may well argue that because traders are waiting for the gap to fill once it does so they then reverse their trades; in affect the gap fill logic is self fulfilling. That maybe the situation but so what. If the price acts as expected at a gap fill so be it.

[2flatpack] 25/7/2014 18:01

bracke


True. Some are women of substance.

SOME???

Have a good weekend all, enjoy what is left of the sunshine
The BBQ is ready
cheers

[ianwwwhite] 25/7/2014 17:03

AHT closed 946p (-6.5p)
Looked like a tussle between bulls and bears today, with the latter coming out on top, but up 24p on the week so can't grumble...

bracke:
Thanks for the 'gap fill' explanation, I must admit I am just a little skeptical as to whether such gaps can be relied upon to be predictive, or whether it is sometimes a case of retro-fitted logic when gap filling occurs?