Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[discodave4] 16/10/2014 20:47

Nice bounce today, same again tomorrow please!.URI up 7% at the moment.GLDD

[ianwwwhite] 16/10/2014 15:30

Bracke,

Re post 50115, thanks for your views.

[bracke] 16/10/2014 10:54

Glaws




Look at the 3 month chart above. Observe the candle which made the low on 08 August.Look where it closed 869.5. Look where it opened the next day 878.5.

Has the share price returned to the closing price on the low candle i.e. 869.5?

[bracke] 16/10/2014 10:40

ian

"I wonder whether, if you subscribe to the ripples, waves, and tide metaphor of stock market movements, you would agree that the gaps are influencing the ripples/waves, but the global economic context is driving the tide?"
===============================================================================

Yes.

[fenners66] 16/10/2014 07:52

URI -
Reaffirms Full Year Outlook and Raises Free Cash Flow Range

United Rentals, Inc. (NYSE:URI) today announced financial results for the third quarter 20141. Total revenue was $1.544 billion and rental revenue was $1.315 billion, compared with $1.311 billion and $1.138 billion, respectively, for the same period last year. On a GAAP basis, the company reported third quarter net income of $192 million, or $1.84 per diluted share, compared with $143 million, or $1.35 per diluted share, for the same period last year.

Adjusted EPS2 for the quarter was $2.20 per diluted share, compared with $1.63 per diluted share for the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA3 was $761 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was a company record 49.3% for the quarter.

Third Quarter 2014 Highlights

Rental revenue (which includes owned equipment rental revenue, re-rent revenue and ancillary items) increased 15.6% year-over-year. Within rental revenue, owned equipment rental revenue increased 15.4%, reflecting year-over-year increases of 9.5% in the volume of equipment on rent and 4.7% in rental rates. The company has reaffirmed its outlook for a full-year increase in rental rates of approximately 4.5%, and full year total revenue in a range of $5.55 billion to $5.65 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA was $761 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 49.3%, an increase of $119 million and 30 basis points, respectively, from the same period last year. The company has reaffirmed its outlook for full year adjusted EBITDA in a range of $2.65 billion to $2.70 billion.
ROIC was 8.4% for the 12 months ended September 30, 2014, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the 12 months ended September 30, 2013.
Time utilization increased 70 basis points year-over-year to 71.5%. The company has reaffirmed its outlook for full year time utilization of approximately 68.5%.
The company generated $140 million of proceeds from used equipment sales at an adjusted gross margin of 47.9%, compared with $102 million and 48.0% for the same period last year.4
Flow-through, which represents the year-over-year change in adjusted EBITDA divided by the year-over-year change in total revenue, was 51.1% for the quarter.

[glaws2] 16/10/2014 07:39

Bracke - can I just clarify how you are defining 'gaps' - do you include the wick of the candle stick as part of the price action or just the open and close ? I ask because (if you are including wicks) the only gap I can see (using sharescope) is between 865 and 890 on March 1 - 4.

I'm sure I'm missing something so if you state the dates of the gap that would be most informative.

[discodave4] 15/10/2014 22:50

2flatpack,Your welcome, just regret profit taking in May, should have just held.....Aaah well live and learn.No ramp intended but there has to be a good 25%-30% profit to be had here over the next year.GLDD

[2flatpack] 15/10/2014 22:32

At last someone who agrees with me
Cheers disco

[discodave4] 15/10/2014 22:23

2flatpack,RE: URI Q3 results, Michael Kneeland CEO commented:-"While we reported very strong results, we believe they reflect just a fraction of what our company can achieve over multiple years in the forecasted upcycle. More immediately, we believe that the current uncertainty in the financial markets relates to global concerns, and not North America."GLDD

[discodave4] 15/10/2014 22:10

2flatpack,Will probably just continue to hold, may even top up - it's dropped about 13% in the last 10 days, down 19% from its 52 week high in Sept, PE now 19, PEG 0.4, on next years forecast earnings PE 15, PEG 0.7, so good value IMV.Read an interesting article from today's Telegraph by Tom Stevenson, extract below:"At times like these the best thing to do is usually nothing at all. An investor who remained fully invested in the market during the 20 years from 1994 would have made a cumulative return of over 300pc. One who missed just the 10 best days in the market by withdrawing during periods of volatility would have reduced their total return by two thirds.Short-term volatility is the price that stock market investors pay for long-term outperformance".GLDD

[2flatpack] 15/10/2014 21:55

URI up 98pts. 1.05%
Q3 results just released
Reaffirms full year outlook.
Cheers

[2flatpack] 15/10/2014 21:46

disco
Its your money not bracke's so flip a coin
and as you say wtfdik
Cheers

[discodave4] 15/10/2014 20:00

Gap at 870 or bounce back above 200SMA.....wtfdik!, and would not dare to doubt the Master Gap Guru....bracke.GLDD

[ianwwwhite] 15/10/2014 19:22

bracke

AS always, thanks for your views.

I wonder whether, if you subscribe to the ripples, waves, and tide metaphor of stock market movements, you would agree that the gaps are influencing the ripples/waves, but the global economic context is driving the tide?

In any event, as a committed long term holder, I will continue to watch (and hold) with interest!

[bracke] 15/10/2014 18:51

ian

Look at the price action following the gap fill. What did it do?

Yes macro global events are the reason given for the market fall. Why on the retraces did the share price go no further than the gap fill?

"to make a few shekels over the last fortnight?"
=============================================

Not on AHT.

[ianwwwhite] 15/10/2014 18:38

Hi bracke,

Re your 'Anyone who thinks that gaps are of no assistance to trading/investing should look at the price action over the past ten days.' - would you kindly elaborate?

I am under the impression that AHTs price, in common with most of the market is being driven by 'macro' global events, particularly poor USA economic data, and that the AHT gap filling might be considered incidental to the bigger picture?

However I am always happy to be corrected, and wonder whether you have been able to exploit your knowledge of 'gap theory' to make a few shekels over the last fortnight?

[bracke] 15/10/2014 15:48

My Post 50064 - 09 October

"Not wanting to cause panic among the brethren but there is a larger gap some way lower."
================================================================================

I wasn't expecting it to get there, certainly not so fast.

The gap I was referring to is at 870. It will need to dip below the Daily SMA 200 to fill the gap. There are other gaps lower down but perhaps best not to go there just yet.

[bracke] 15/10/2014 14:00

Anyone who thinks that gaps are of no assistance to trading/investing should look at the price action over the past ten days.

[discodave4] 15/10/2014 13:01

Many thanks Bracke for taking the time to reply.......learning slowly!.GLDD

[bracke] 15/10/2014 12:40

Diso

Yes 937 is the Daily SMA 100. It needs to close and hold above that level to provide some confidence that the drop is complete.

If you look at a Daily chart with SMA 50, SMA 100 and SMA 200 you will see that over the last ten trading days the share price has reacted to them. First as support but when broken they become resistance.

Today the share price did break above the Daily SMA 100 but having filled the gap it dropped back. It is still holding above the Daily SMA 200.

[discodave4] 14/10/2014 22:31

Pleasantly surprised it closed up today, especially after the U.S. markets and URI (-7.7%) tanked last evening, URI up 2.4% today.Bracke - Does AHT need to close above about 937?GLDD

[bracke] 13/10/2014 18:15

SP closed in 'no man's land' i.e. between Daily SMA 200 and Daily SMA 100.

[bracke] 13/10/2014 15:48

Good day fenners

Nice to see you emerge from behind the sofa but I am not certain the nasty stuff is over.

A lot can happen from April to April. I hope it lasts long enough for you.

[fenners66] 13/10/2014 15:11

Bracke no stiff drink but maybe a coffee. As for the CGT I am only planning selling annual allowance each April so the timescales can be drawn out in years. The share price got ahead of target and a sale and buyback in <30 days even with CGT would have been advantageous but who can predict that well? As long as each Apfil we get there or there abouts so be it.
I believe the fundamentals are still improving that is the key.

[2flatpack] 13/10/2014 12:21

Bracke
Once again thanks for your time and effort .
Cheers