Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[luderitz] 06/3/2024 16:24

Blimey what a dive in share price

[disc0dave46] 06/3/2024 10:53

Good morning Mr bWill take a look at that ytube vid when get the chance. Thanks.

[disc0dave46] 06/3/2024 10:52

For what it's worth, Hargreaves Lansdown's opinion:Markets had already been warned to expect a growth slowdown, but third-quarter results still came in slightly worse than expected. Fewer natural disasters and the writers' and actors' strikes lasting longer than expected have dampened demand for the construction and industrial equipment it rents out, especially in North America.Medium term guidance was a little cautious, especially on the capital expenditure side which points to a c.25% reduction in investment compared to group estimates for the current year.Markets may not have reacted well, but it's worth keeping things in context.Recent performance has been at record levels and even the previously lowered guidance still points to double digit top line growth. We're fairly optimistic that the events that caused the downgrade are likely to be one-offs and the impacts should be contained to the current financial year.North America remains the real growth opportunity for Ashtead, and over the medium term, we still think the outlook is promising. There are several growth drivers here, including the onshoring of supply chains to government legislation looking to expand infrastructure and chip manufacturing.Ashtead's scale and expertise are proving valuable, and the group's taking around 30% market share of these mega projects in the US. The bigger players have an advantage in the fragmented industry, and the balance sheet's being flexed to snap up smaller players in the space.Growing the speciality business is also a key strategy (things like scaffolding, flooring and air conditioning). These businesses present a varied income stream for Ashtead which should help provide a little more resilience during downturns.But, in the end, construction is a cyclical business. Demand tends to ebb and flow alongside economic conditions. In the key US market, the chance of lower economic output remains a risk - even if there's not technically a recession in the region.Debt has risen as investment in expansion continues, but the balance sheet is in reasonable health and means the group can invest to meet the extra demand - opening new stores, expanding its rental fleet and pursuing its strategy of bolt-on acquisitions, where appropriate, too.Longer term, we're supportive of the sector with several structural tailwinds underway and we prefer larger-scale names like Ashtead. We continue to expect growth in the top and bottom lines, and still see some upside to the current valuation. But despite some softer growth, recent valuation moves have been positive, increasing the chances of poor reactions to missteps.

[bigbigdave] 06/3/2024 07:16

GOLDMAN RAISES ASHTEAD GROUP PRICE TARGET TO 6750 (6550) PENCE - 'BUY'

[bracke] 05/3/2024 19:11

Good day fenners

"So the first disclosable short position for 2 years was taken out just prior to results..."
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Coincidence or excellent trading.

Good day disc0

So it was excellent trading.

"What’s that thing that comes in three’s?…don’t mean the buses either!."
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Omne trium perfectum.


A lot of AHT selling today

And to end an imperfect day I was watching this which some may find of use or at least of some interest.

[disc0dave46] 05/3/2024 19:08

Folks across the pond selling off pre JP's speech.URI down 4.6% on no diss appointing news!.

[disc0dave46] 05/3/2024 18:43

Good evening Mr bNo real surprise about the short position opening prior to results. It was overbought and generally sells off plus the overhang from the strike was well documented IMO.What's that thing that comes in three's?...don't mean the buses either!.

[fenners66] 05/3/2024 17:28

So the first disclosable short position for 2 years was taken out just prior to results...

[bracke] 05/3/2024 16:37

This is interesting. Look at the date.

[fenners66] 05/3/2024 14:10

Did I mention volatility in the share price a week or more ago...?

[riley109] 05/3/2024 12:56

The best thing they can do is get rid of the Actors and writers for a start,they will be nothing but trouble involvement in the entertainment side will be more bother than it's worth and the weather is also unpredictable,stick with what you know.I'll bet URI have steered well clear than to rely on reasons like that to affect profit.

[bracke] 05/3/2024 12:55

The price action in the three days before today is interesting. Particularly on the Thursday when there was large buying volume presumably in expectation of 'good things'. Those buyers are 'trapped'; sell at a loss or wait for the share price to recover.

RSI had it correct....again.

Two gaps to the downside filled but one to the upside opened. The share price dropped back well into the 'Big Wedge' but has risen to the top of the wedge

AHT DAILY

[riley109] 05/3/2024 12:41

Same old same old back up again without a doubt.!

[disc0dave46] 05/3/2024 10:15

Doesn't read too well but IMO H1 had already set the scene - not as many natural disasters and the writers & actors strike (which as highlighted by ADF's update was still an issue). The first cannot be managed (although they shouldn't be including in their financial forecasting in the first place), and the latter is a one off event that will normalise and grow.Capex is massive (+$1.2bn) to take advantage of US infrastructure spend, so glass half full things should improve. The buyback was minimal compared to last year so not even worth debating IMO.

[trt] 05/3/2024 09:13

Could see this drop below £50 now

[fenners66] 05/3/2024 07:58

Even H&E has seen rapid share price growth.

I am coming around to listing in the US if that's what it takes to get their attention and significant rating upside.
IF the thought is that it would not do any good , then the management better work out what URI are doing better.

[fenners66] 05/3/2024 07:49

Trade debtors have gone up 15%
but
Trade payables have fallen 2%

Those figures are yr on yr 3rd qtr and are even worse vs the year end.

Who is Not managing the working capital ?

There is an average financing cost of debt of 5% , no doubt the short term cost of overdrafts will be higher.
Someone needs to get a grip

[c_k] 05/3/2024 07:48

I was disappointed too on first read of the profits. The contrast with URIs share price growth over recent times is stark.

[fenners66] 05/3/2024 07:39

First glance those 3rd Qtr figures look disappointing.

As for the EPS despite buybacks , ? 1% !

The growth of PBT was $2m

The added financing cost was $143m or about 31c a share

Finally however some common sense returns..?

"Our capital allocation framework remains unchanged and prioritises:
· organic fleet growth;
- same-stores;
- greenfields;
· bolt-on acquisitions; and
· a progressive dividend with consideration to both profitability and cash generation that is sustainable through the cycle."

We shall see.

[bracke] 04/3/2024 19:22

Good day disc0

Yes it is. So will it be sell the result?

More data from US this week.

[disc0dave46] 04/3/2024 18:25

Q3 tomorrow so good luck all.Good day Mrb....RSI still just about in overbought territory :(

[fenners66] 04/3/2024 15:14

The jump a read across from the URI purchase of Yak ?

I would expect that read across to be short lived as its not something that Sunbelt do ? Mats?

Although they use some adjusted EBITDA metric $171m vs their cost of $ 1.1Bn the
(again adjusted) net income was only $54m
So about 20x net earnings....

[bracke] 04/3/2024 14:36

Gap at 5680 filled.

AHT DAILY