Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 05/4/2024 13:29

Gap at 5728 filled.

AHT DAILY

[fenners66] 26/3/2024 14:23

Bloomberg have already raised the matter that Biden wants to spend on infrastructure already and questions now whether there was any reason to have already been spending given the Baltimore Bridge collapse.

That would only have been the case if bridge support standards would have changed since the 1970's to prevent an impact like the one today knocking over the bridge - I suspect not - but it raises the issue of spending on infrastructure and clearly lots is going to have to be spent there now...

[disc0dave46] 25/3/2024 18:24

(Sharecast News)-JPMorgan Cazenove placed Ashtead on “positive catalyst watch” on Monday ahead of its capital markets day in Atlanta on 29th April, as it expects the stock to outperform into/on the event.
The bank said that after the success of the Sunbelt 3.0 strategy - launched at the last CMD in 2021 - where the group said it will exceed its targets, it is set to lay out its "much anticipated" five-year plan.
JPM said teasers for Sunbelt 4.0 suggest continued focus on ‘Growth’ and ‘Resilience217; but also, ‘Performance’, which is likely to highlight margin progression - a reflection of the evolution of the business model from just a growth story, which it detailed in its recent "deep dive".
"As such, we expect the stock to outperform into/on the event and place the stock on positive catalyst watch."
JPM, which rates the shares at ‘overweight217; with a 6,600p price target, expects the messaging at the CMD to be positive, with a bullish message on growth underpinned by multiple company-specific drivers and end markets (in particular mega projects), margin expansion, and increased balance sheet optionality following a moderation in capex, creating a more sustainable equity investment.
"In our view, the targets will likely cautiously bracket high single digit percentage (e.g. 6-9%) organic rental revenue growth, driving a circa 10-16% earnings per share compound annual growth rate when including the balance sheet optionality, ahead of FY29e consensus (albeit limited forecasts).
"As with the previous CMD, we would expect the group to outperform any targets over the time horizon, which could see the group deliver circa 13-18% adjusted EPS CAGR."
JPM said that with the stock lagging peers year-to-date and trading in line with its five-year average on EV/EBITA and close to its widest discount to United Rentals (its closest peer) in five years (excluding April 2020), it continues "to see risk/ reward as attractive, seeing the CMD as a positive catalyst".

[...]

[bracke] 21/3/2024 18:22

Currently warnings mean nothing to the US Market.

Reddit have not made a profit in 20 years but today their IPO is up 60%. It's very reminiscent of the dot com boom.

[disc0dave46] 21/3/2024 15:27

Thanks for the chart Mr bSo some disparity could be associated with the dire UK market. Probably also need to check the company results as well as not aware that URI have issued any warnings, whereas AHT have on two occasions now if my memory serves.

[bracke] 21/3/2024 15:20

disc0

Comparison of FTSE100 and S&P500 in link below.

Thanks for the article which seems to support Elliott Wave Theory i.e. no matter what the fundamentals are the market will do what it wants.

DAILY FTSE100/S&P500 COMPARISON

[disc0dave46] 21/3/2024 14:09

Good day Mr bThanks for the pretty chart :)Wow that's some difference!. Can I ask does it look similar when comparing the associated indices?.Read this also about the US election and likely market impact. The research / analysis concluded:"The historical data suggests that economic and inflation trends, more so than election outcomes, tend to have a stronger, more consistent relationship with market returns."Which given the current macros seems apt.Https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/how-presidential-elections-affect-the-stock-market.html

[bracke] 21/3/2024 13:04

Good day disc0

It seems that the US market was overjoyed that the dot plot remained at three possible interest rate reductions this year and went into overdrive. The fact that ten members voted to keep three cuts and nine voted for two was ignored.

My impression is that the market is being held up until the Presidential Election on 5th November after that all bets are off. Whether the market can be held up for another seven months is open to question but it would not surprise me if they achieved it.

Somewhat disappointingly AHT has not responded greatly along with the US Market. Just to rub salt into the wound here is an AHT/URI comparison chart. Maybe it's time AHT moved its listing to the US?

DAILY AHT/URI COMPARISON

[disc0dave46] 20/3/2024 18:59

Mr bJust looked at the US indices and looks like Mr P has been dovish?.

[perfido] 20/3/2024 17:00

bracke

lol!!
.

[bracke] 20/3/2024 16:49

'Could rise to 5830'

[perfido] 20/3/2024 16:42

Not a bad day at all!

I'm waiting to hear trt's take on it :-)
.

[bracke] 20/3/2024 16:37

"Think that’s a dead cert :)"
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You wouldn't expect me to stick my neck out too far would you!


My understanding is that UK and others are reluctant to cut interest rates until the US do. Why? Because the £ (and other currencies) would fall resulting in increased cost of imported goods, resulting in increased inflation.

"Mr Bailey simply follows anyway……even though IMO he raised too high and is too slow cutting. He threw petrol on the fire IMO."
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I neither agree or disagree. I look to the amount of money the government pumped into the economy, perhaps they over did it?

[disc0dave46] 20/3/2024 16:05

Good day Mr b"Purely my view but I suspect that the market will 'be upset' if the dot plot is reduced and delayed by a significant amount."Think that's a dead cert :)What's clear, even though not surprising, is positive UK inflation data means diddly squatt as most folks aren't interested in UK equities (haven't been since circa 2016), it's all about the US and Mr Bailey simply follows anyway......even though IMO he raised too high and is too slow cutting. He threw petrol on the fire IMO.

[luderitz] 20/3/2024 15:17

Keep on climbing Ashtead please.

[bracke] 20/3/2024 15:15

Good day disco

Apologies for the blurred link. Yes it was the Fitch news.

The general expectation is no US interest rate reduction today. The interest is the 'dot plot' i.e. how many and when. Purely my view but I suspect that the market will 'be upset' if the dot plot is reduced and delayed by a significant amount.

[disc0dave46] 20/3/2024 14:54

Good afternoon Mr bThanks as ever for your views.Was your earlier link post 62669 also reporting the Fitch news?, apologies if it was but did open it and couldn't actually see what the news was (blurred out).

[disc0dave46] 20/3/2024 14:45

Fitch affirms BBB rating - outlook stable. Their senior notes also given a BBB rating.Possible reason for today's action?.Https://uk.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ASHTEAD-GROUP-PLC-4001655/news/Fitch-Affirms-Ashtead-at-BBB-Outlook-Stable-46239694/

[bracke] 20/3/2024 13:25

Good day palwing

If the share price breaks above the 'Big Wedge' top line of the Rectangle Bottom becomes the target. Mr Powell to decide.

AHT WEEKLY

[bracke] 20/3/2024 13:15

A gap up today possible based on:



SP resisted at the top trend line of the 'Big Wedge' which coincides with the 78.6% FIB at 5504. Gaps to fill to the upside and the low side.

Mr Powell speaks later today. I ponder when he tosses the coin to decide if he will be dove or hawk.

AHT DAILY

[disc0dave46] 20/3/2024 12:31

Any reason out there for the share price action this morning?, can't see anything (UK CPI hasn't really moved the indices).

[palwing32] 20/3/2024 11:01

Thanks Bracke. After the recent share price improvement, I am no longer sure if a rectangular bottom is affecting the wedge or the wedge is creating a rectangular bottom. I may have to make an appointment with my GP to discuss. Either way, it all seems to be positive. GLA.

[bracke] 12/3/2024 15:17

"The US indices all dropped…..well for the first 30 minutes or so anyway!, lol."
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A bear trap for the uninitiated.

[disc0dave46] 12/3/2024 14:04

Good day Mr b"The CPI didn't make any difference"The US indices all dropped.....well for the first 30 minutes or so anyway!, lol.Have a good one.