Arrow Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[here and there] 03/6/2024 08:50

I suspect that mistake in the RNS will get corrected. Careless error. easily done but one would have thought it would have been read through by multiple parties including the Nomad before publication.

In the mean time........I wonder how many feet of the horizontal has been completed, cased, perforated, tested ?

Feels like we at stage three in the company growth process.

Stage 1 IPO funding and get RCE up and running
Stage 2 CN discovery and appraisal
Stage 3 horizontal drilling and on success a step change in production growth and a whole new era/approach accross the field

[rockyride] 02/6/2024 09:41

HiI think there may be a significant error in the recent RNS. My question relates to Q1 24 vs Q1 23 production growth.The RNS quotes 2,730 / 1,144 = 139% growth.However, previous RNS's state 1,144 for Q1 22 and 1,635 for Q1 23Should the recent RNS not say 2,730 / 1,635 = 67% growth.In my opinion you are quoting more than double the actual quarter on quarter growth. If I'm correct, I find this very difficult to comprehend and am amazed that this has got to print.Can you please clarify this situation for me?

[eaglehaslanded] 01/6/2024 10:35

Malcy comments:This was a brilliant quarter for Arrow and one I was privileged to have spent some time with them in Bogota. I have written up my thoughts and will publish soon but their success rate and subsequent increase in production is enviable as is the outlook.So revenue was indeed doubled over last 1Q to $14.4m and NI was $3.2m giving healthy EBITDA of $10m and production shot up by 139% to 2,730 boe/d giving netbacks of %56.27/bbl. Cash of $11.6m is very healthy on cash flow of $8.6m enabling them to have a really good drilling programme.In the first quarter they drilled four CN wells exploring the C7 and Ubaque reservoir and post the period end they have drilled two additional CN development wells but maybe more importantly have spudded the first CN Horizontal well from the Carrizales Norte B pad (CNB) that I saw being constructed whilst I was out there.The company expect to announce the result of the first horizontal well, CNB HZ-1 in 'coming weeks' and if it is successful can drill three more wells from the pad in the coming months which should significantly increase production. In addition to this the company are planning wells at the Carrizales Norte field and the exciting Mateguafa Attic and Baquiano prospects later in the year.The company is still totally self funding the drilling programme and as all the new wells come onto production the self fulfilment continues. During my visit I met most of the high quality staff in the office and the field, there is no doubt that Arrow has great team from top to bottom and the stock is remarkably cheap with so much to look forward to.

[taurusthebear] 31/5/2024 18:12

Ironic that the Abbott fuss is because she spoke a truism, rather than due to her maths inability.

[mount teide] 31/5/2024 15:17

It's not the first time the sequencing of some of the production numbers have stretched plausibility tighter than a tugboat towage wire 'singing' in a full gale!

Employing Canada's equivalent of Dianne 'The walking Ababcas' Abbott to do the calculations is clearly doing them and us few favours!

[beaks44] 31/5/2024 13:53

Just figured it out. 1144 is qtr 1 22. That's quite a misleading error!!

[beaks44] 31/5/2024 13:33

RNs -Im slightly confused about 139% increase in average production....1144 to 2730 is 139%. Table in rns shows qtr1 23 to be 1635 not 1144. In which case increase is 67%. Where am i going wrong?

[lexion] 31/5/2024 09:57

Hoping for some Friday FOMO - it's likely we shall be at TD about now - results as soon as next Thursday or is that too optimistic?

[jungmana] 31/5/2024 08:31

Q1 results are ok by me and looking forward to the HZ well results.O/t been buying some LBE this week on the drop due to a few issues in Norway.GLA

[mount teide] 30/5/2024 22:15

Decline Rates - A linear 2.5% a month(30% annual) decline rate is consistent with the first year C7 production decline data in the latest presentation (page 23) for Arrow's vertical wells drilled on the Tapir Block, llanos Basin asset....and these are significantly better than wells drilled on offsetting blocks.

If Arrow's vertical wells continue to follow the projected decline curve, the decline rate should drop to around an average of 20% per year in years 2 and 3, before slowing further.

The decline rates for horizontal wells drilled recently in the Llanos Basin by two leading independents are proving to be considerably slower than that of the verticals.

By way of example, Geopark's initial production from their horizontal well 'proof of concept' trial, comfortably exceeded an average of 2,000 bopd gross per well. They have since reported as a result of experiencing a materially slower decline rate from these wells compared to vertical wells, they recently booked a material increase in the field's P2 reserves.

'A total of five horizontal wells were drilled and put on production in full-year 2023 and are currently producing approximately 10,060 bopd gross in aggregate.' .....Geopark/17th Jan 24 Update

Arrow's CN Horizontal wells - as a betting man, in light of the spectacular success of
recent 'proof of concept' horizontal well drilling in the Llanos Basin in both heavy and light oil reservoirs by two leading independent O&G companies, on the balance of probabilities, i suspect a result from the CNB-HZ1 well of 2-3 times the mean production of Arrow's vertical CN Ubaque wells drilled to date, would likely attract odds worse than even money from the bookies.

AIMHO/DYOR

[upwego] 30/5/2024 19:45

Would be nice to have a gusher! 🤣

[the_gold_mine] 30/5/2024 18:35

Good solid update in line with expectations.

Arrow should have plenty of inventory to keep drilling for the next year at a minimum, regardless of the outcome on the CN horizontals.

Mateguafa-4
Mateguafa-5
Mateguafa-6
Baquiano-1
Baquiano-2
Baquiano-3

Plus one expects the CNB pad could simply be used to drill vertical wells in the event that the horizontals don't pan out - space for 3 or 4 wells?

Plus the Oso Pardo recompletions, plus the produced water de-bottlenecking on-going.

Anyone who has this pegged as a binary bet on the horizontals isn't seeing it clearly, in my opinion.

Although I'm personally confident the horizontals will deliver,

AIMHO/DYOR

[eaglehaslanded] 30/5/2024 15:22

Joe about next interview:I believe the plan is to wait until we have HZ results and then have interviews. ThanksJoe

[pastybap] 30/5/2024 14:29

RR, I too have been critical on Marshalls previous spin and hyperbole. I think today's report is balanced and measured. Also, the 2.7k bopd is slightly ahead of my estimated 2.5k-2.6k. I think that issue should be in the past now, and we can look forward to optimism (and hope) regarding the horizontals.

[king suarez] 30/5/2024 14:17

It's almost just a copy-paste of the RNS highlights section - where's the analysis etc? Not worth a read imo.

[cat33] 30/5/2024 14:13

Great summary of the AXL results from Jimhttps://oilman.beehiiv.com/p/oilman-jims-letter-30-may-2024Worth reading

[buffythebuffoon] 30/5/2024 11:53

RR, wasn’t it you who posted that the advisors asked MA to hold back on interviews. Isn’t the ‘subject to completion’ consistent with him toning down the bullish statements?

Buffy.

[ashkv] 30/5/2024 11:47

RockyRide - have you reloaded at these lows today? Unreal that AXL is just about 15-16% above its 52 week low of 17p given where it is placed today!!

[rockyride] 30/5/2024 11:38

I certainly hope you're right but for balance 'provide an update' can only be taken as a neutral phrase, it certainly does not mean that the update will be positive.

[ashkv] 30/5/2024 11:19

With the Auctus guided midyear CPR update figure that should come through shortly AXL EV/2p will equate to a lowly $3.75 per barrel including the expected 4.3mn barrel reserve addition at the present share price of 20p.

With a successful horizontal well - hopefully this dead duck gets some life!!! Also 2 water disposal wells should hopefully lead to a nice uplift for production!!! Also news on Capella restart would be welcome :)

Marshall Abbot "Management remains confident in the Arrow team to execute on the planned exploitation campaign pursuing our opportunity rich portfolio and getting shareholder value to the next level.""

We are waiting patiently for this "next level" shareholder value!!!

30 May 24 AXL Q1 2024 Results RNS

Share Price -AXL -> 20.00p
AXL Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 17p on 15 Nov 23 -> 17.65%
AXL Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 27.75p on 21 March 24 -> -27.93%
Brent -> $83.20
Market Cap (GBP) -> £57,172,870
GBPUSD -> 1.27
Market Cap (USD) -> $72,609,544
Production Average Q1 2023 -> 1,635
Production Average Q2 2023 -> 2,169
Production Average Q3 2023 -> 2,518
Production Average Q4 2023 -> 2,335
Production Average Q1 2024 -> 2,730
Production Average FY 2023 -> 2,167
Production Levels End March 2024 -> 2,900
Production Average FY 2022 -> 1,345
Cash (31 Mar 24) -> $11,606,343
Inventory (Q1 2024 Results) -> $492,240
Debt -> $0
Enterprise Value (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) -> $61,003,201
EV/Barrel Q1 2024 Production Avg -> $22,345
EV/Barrel Average FY 2023 Production Avg -> $28,151
EV/Barrel Production Levels -> End March 2024 -> $21,036
EV/Barrel (Auctus 3900 Boe/d Expected By Q4 2024) -> $15,642
Decommissioning liability (Q1 2024 Results RNS) -> $4,282,861
2P Reserves (Year End 2023) -> 11,847,000
EV/2P -> $5.15
Shares Outstanding -> 285,864,348
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) -> 292,791,385
Net Cash Plus Inventory Component of AXL share price -> 3.33p

[mount teide] 30/5/2024 10:59

RR - as someone who previously called out Marshall on the technical accuracy of his verbal and written communications with respect to production figures and failure to fully execute the 2022 drilling plan, your post 8138 is not how I read today's drilling update, relative to the last RNS statement for the CNB HZ-1 drill.

Your post 8138 would carry more weight if you had not omitted the previous sentence from today's RNS:
'The Company expects to be able to provide an update on the production figures for CNB HZ-1 in the coming weeks.'

In my opinion today's RNS is consistent with the drilling of CNB HZ-1 being on track; ie yet to complete the horizontal section. Logical, since the well spudded 14/15 days ago, and we know it usually takes 9-10 days to drill the vertical section.

With management guidance of circa 20 days to drill the well and put it on production, this suggests drilling should complete around the end of the first week of June, with initial production news during the second week.

ie - Today's statement is consistent with the previous statement - in that the drill remains on track with production news still expected around the date previously guided.


Q1 Interim Results - good results, that were in line with my expectation. Highly encouraging to see the cash position has remained stable at $11-13m over the last 18 months or so, considering the capital cost of the 11 well drilling programme in 2023 and the early wells in 2024.

With Q1 Revenue up 109% Y-O-Y to $14.4 million net of royalties from a similar average oil price, it strongly confirms that the management can generate excellent production, revenue and EBITDA growth from just a modest annual vertical well drilling programme on the Tapir Block - largely due to the incredibly low original $2.5m net average drilling cost per well(now down in 2024 to just $1.5m net) and sub $10/bbl OPEX.

With the planned horizontal wells expected to have a $2.5m net drilling cost, down $1m net from the original budget, then as previously posted, even a net 500 bbls of production should deliver a huge step change improvement in revenue, from what is already an excellent performance from the vertical wells at circa $80-$85 Brent.

AIMHO/DYOR

[king suarez] 30/5/2024 09:41

One thing is for sure, we will not be sat under 21p at end 2025 if we have $60m cash in the bank and averaged 5.6kboepd for the year! It would be a certain doubling of the share price at minimum imo.

[mcleani] 30/5/2024 09:16

I just bought at 20.68. So not all the sells are sells

[dunns_river_falls] 30/5/2024 08:58

I still think that some of those canacol shares are sloshing around. Almost every day there are chunky sells 25k, 50k up to 250k on higher volume days. Hopefully nearing an end now but who knows. Really need a positive result from hz1, but even if there is an issue with the 1st drill - the oil is still there.